Model Output Discussion; into 2015

[carinthian]

You forgot two things in that assessment. The tiiming and cost of opening weather centres was a mistake, I think there were twelve in total but am open to correction on that, as it coincided with the rise of independent weather companies with Noble Denton leading the way.I remember well the discussions regarding closures. It was no longer a level playing field and hasn't been ever since and the METO couldn't compete using the old structure with the advent of more advanced technology. The independents could do the job at a fraction of the cost. Thus a commercial arm had to be created. Put simply the staffing costs were astronomical and in the modern age could not be justified.

 

Just out of interest the cost of running eight radiosonde stations alone was £2 million a year but now satellites have arrived they aren't needed so only two remain. Camborne and Lerwick. The cost of running four Weather Ships ran into millions but fortunately the cost was divided and the CAA mainly picked up the tab. Not forgetting of course the development and maintenance of the radar network.

 

In my opinion the METO still offers a great service, it's pointless comparing it to the past, and it receives IMO, too much ignorant criticism some of which emanates on here.

Knocker, yes, the concept would have not have survived. As a public service is was costly and innovative, possibly leading a way to a competitive and more commercial market. The weather centres did create a evolution of a mass interest in the weather service. I was lucky to be employed in this service and was aware of the high sector costs, but proportionally was only a small cost to the huge MOD costs in those days. Opportunity for employment in the Met Office was far easier in those days with opportunity through the ranks with just ordinary GCE O & A levels. The training college stimulated by Dr Mason was one of the best in the world with students attending from all corners of the globe. Alas, as you report advancement of technology would have only held sway for a limited concept but the timing and costs of the weather centres in my opinion was not a mistake, but opportunities abound to rival sets ups was its creation. Indeed my own company in the 1980s was one of them.

C

Edited January 4, 2015 by carinthian

[Great Plum]

Yes IDO, the potential mid month cold snowy spell has gone to be replaced by a mid latitude high.

We can but hope the Strat can deliver something for February.

It's all crazy conjecture out in FI but the op was out on its own (with one other member) whilst the majority trended cooler...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

I reckon it's all 'still up in the air' at the moment...

[karlos1983]

So after all it looks very much like the Met winter forecast is going to be correct, over the signs and signals that many thought would Bring us a cold heart of winter.

Yes 6 weeks left etc, but there is very little in the output to suggest a cold spell is even close. Northerly/north easterly that was showing on GFS has now gone, the Strat warming fades away with nothing showing in the depths of the low res.

PM flow won't bring widespread snow/ice days. I just can't see where deep cold is going to come from now. Please if you do, then enlighten me.

In some ways, this has been more frustrating than last winter. At lest we had some decent storms to entertain us.

[johnholmes]

the two links sum up the next 14 or more days; there is no sign of any deep cold from any direction in that time scale. Believe me from a selfish point of view I wish there was. I go skiing 18 January and those charts below are NOT what the Alps wants for skiing below about 5 maybe even 6000ft.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

[nick sussex]

Morning all

 

Sadly very little to get excited about this morning, the mobile picture continues with the odd cooler day thrown in amongst a lot of milder weather.

 

Any more interesting GEFS members remain marooned well into FI, the operationals look flat right upto T240hrs, the GFS P adds some amplification later but its noticeable that we're not moving any further forward with even this amplification remaining stuck past T240hrs.

 

We're yet to see the updated MJO forecasts and even if that does reach phase 7 at a decent amplitude its effects might not come into play till after mid month.

 

Until we see tangible signs of a change then its really a very tedious and from a cold perspective a very poor outlook.

Edited January 4, 2015 by nick sussex

[bluearmy]

i think you will get lucky john. a pull back of the ridge will allow something wet down there and given the time of year, i suspect even the lowish pistes above wengen will be ok.

 

on a wider scale, there is nothing in the extended ec ens to move on from where we were yesterday evening - chance of a pattern change mid month as the azores ridge pulls back into the atlantic and allows the trough to sink south into europe somewhat. i think the gefs are a reasonable offering of what is on the table. (needs to be a windsor castle job)

 

given the lack of definitive guidance (not surprising more than 10 days out) and that winter patterns oft repeat, you wont go far wrong by reading tamara's post from yesterday afternoon. expect a repeat of late december for the time being. (perhaps a bit more wintry/perhaps not)

[kev238]

Not a lot has changed this morning. A quite unsettled period coming up with the South influenced at times by a very powerful Azores high. The cet by the 10th is likely to be 1 to 1.5 degrees above average.

From about the 11th there is the potential for a wilder period that is increasingly cool/ cold- following on from that is where there will be questions and speculation.

[Polar Maritime]

Talking about storms, Next week is going to get very interesting with Winter Storms and severe Gales touching 90mph for parts of the UK. -6/-7c 850's pushing in, With Blizzard conditions for the N/W.. Lot's to keep tabs on, Putting aside the 'hunt' for deep cold.. Let's see were we are after this unsettled period, With 2 Months of Winter left. 

 

Edited January 4, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[knocker]

Looking at the extended anomalies isn't a great help. GEFS is still going for the Atlantic HP with the trough to the east. The ECM EPS is initially not buying this although by T360 it is indicating height rises in the western Atlantic but it still retains zonality with weakish trough UK.

Charts courtesy weatherbell

Edited January 4, 2015 by knocker

[bluearmy]

Looking at the extended anomalies isn't a great help. GEFS is still going for the Atlantic HP with the trough to the east. The ECM EPS is initially not buying this although by T360 it is indicating height rises in the western Atlantic but it still retains zonality with weakish trough UK.

Charts courtesy weatherbell

The eps do lose the high heights to our south with a mean med trough (though that could easily mean we have a mid lat high atop us as per last week). I would put the gefs and ECM extended on the same worksheet. Any differences are understandable at that range.

[johnholmes]

Talking about storms, Next week is going to get very interesting with Winter Storms and severe Gales touching 90mph for parts of the UK. -6/-7c 850's pushing in, With Blizzard conditions for the N/W.. Lot's to keep tabs on, Putting aside the 'hunt' for deep cold.. Let's see were we are after this unsettled period, With 2 Months of Winter left. 

 

 

Yes indeed, a very interesting and possibly serious storm for the NW of the UK, Met Fax at 120h already shows it down to 975mb in mid Atlantic. So plenty to watch for weather fans.

[Captain Shortwave]

The UKMO shows two deep secondary systems hitting the north of the UK on this mornings run

The GFS op also suggests a second system following the same path as per UKMO, same goes for the ECM. So the end of this week and into the weekend could be quite wild, especially over northern Scotland and the Hebrides as well as Shetland/Orkney.

GFS op coming out now

Possible storm force winds for North west Scotland over two consecutive days. The parallel though shows no major wind event whatsoever, just a strong south westerly winds from a broad system to the north west.

Edited January 4, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[wolvesfan]

Morning all,

 

Middle strat temp now running well above the mean,not sure how long it will stay there,

It'll be interesting to see if we get any trop response further down the line.Ensembles have been sniffing a change for quite a few runs 0z indicative,

 

[Polar Maritime]

A few posts are more suited to the Moan/Ramp thread, So if you find yours missing it's probably in there. Let's continue to discuss what the charts are 'actually showing' in here. 

 

Thanks PM

Edited January 4, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Jason M]

I can understand people's reaction this morning. Looking through the GEFS it's proving very difficult to remove the heights to our South. Once high pressure gets embedded over iberia it can be an absolute nightmare to get rid off and a good rule of thumb is that if you are seeing orange or reds in that region there is pretty much zero chance of any meaningful cold spell. Of course the heights are the effect rather than the cause but it becomes a self reinforcing pattern.

So we have one of three ways forward In my view. The status quo, a mid Atlantic ridge toppler and a UK high. I Personally think there is very little chance indeed of Greenland heights and I simply don't believe the GEFS FI teases on that front as it has previous. Even last year we seeing such charts.

Edited January 4, 2015 by Jason M

[IDO]

You don't see the 850's temps in the US nearly off the scale that often: 

 

I am seeing three reloads of cold into the US in the next 12 days with another one maybe later. It is quite possible that the Conus will see a record breaking winter (again)!

 

The op in FI goes more the Atlantic ridge route again. Expect flip flops galore in the next week: 

Edited January 4, 2015 by i'm dreaming of...

[ANYWEATHER]

Well to lighten the mood this morning, some eyefest for a perfect set-up for the Uk to be put firmly in the freezer, shame its the last frame of the gfs run...

[Nath]

You don't see the 850's temps in the US nearly off the scale that often: gfsnh-1-288 (1).png

 

I am seeing three reloads of cold into the US in the next 12 days with another one maybe later. It is quite possible that the Conus will see a record breaking winter (again)!

 

The op in FI goes more the Atlantic ridge route again. Expect flip flops galore in the next week: gfsnh-0-324 (2).png

I can see a scary purple dinosaur attaching the US in pic 1 lol

[karlos1983]

You don't see the 850's temps in the US nearly off the scale that often: gfsnh-1-288 (1).png

 

I am seeing three reloads of cold into the US in the next 12 days with another one maybe later. It is quite possible that the Conus will see a record breaking winter (again)!

 

The op in FI goes more the Atlantic ridge route again. Expect flip flops galore in the next week: gfsnh-0-324 (2).png

I've personally not seen white on the 850's anywhere in my model watching time, never mind N America.

[Cloud 10]

At least the FI eye candy is back on the 06z op runs,with the gfs op in particilar throwing up a very useful looking block to our North.

 

 

 

The parallel also with a cold flow from the East/Northeast.

 

[Polar Maritime]

A cool/cold  GFSP 6z with a continued Pm flow bringing Wintry showers/blizzards/rain/Storms across the UK and Ireland next week. It does show Heights once again trying to push up into Greenland turning the flow N/N/E into the run.. Lot's of uncertainty until the storms have passed next week, And the Models have got a handle on there exact track.

 

Edited January 4, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Cloud 10]

I've personally not seen white on the 850's anywhere in my model watching time, never mind N America.

 

That's because metiociel has put some extra colours on the scale to accommodate extra low 850's

[Polar Maritime]

If anything the winds have been upgraded for the Storm on the 9th, Way out in gaga, But the very last frame has -11/12 850's over the UK from the N/E  

 

Edited January 4, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[knocker]

You don't see the 850's temps in the US nearly off the scale that often: gfsnh-1-288 (1).png

 

I am seeing three reloads of cold into the US in the next 12 days with another one maybe later. It is quite possible that the Conus will see a record breaking winter (again)!

 

The op in FI goes more the Atlantic ridge route again. Expect flip flops galore in the next week: gfsnh-0-324 (2).png

 

I'm being a tad pedantic ido but but last year wasn't a record breaking winter for the Conus. It was only 33rd coldest. Certain regions were very cold like the upper Midwest which had the 6th coldest.

[bobbydog]

justifiable pessimism and scepticism i think but what are we always told? "ignore the details in FI, look for trends"

well i can see a very strong trend emerging from BOTH GFS models.