Model Output Discussion; into 2015

[lorenzo]

If we are to get a pattern change entering stage left after this lot breezes on through, the atmosphere is wanting to give the resident vortex a helluva send off.

 

 

[Nick F]

This will do to uncancel the winter cancel, shame it's at t+384!

 

[MisfitDog3]

The mouldering carrot of cold continues to ever hover near the distant horizon as the never learning donkey of dull mediocrity plods on through the westerly gale....

[Carlrg]

Not all doom and gloom.

 

 

 

[TEITS]

I am no expert like others on here with regards to the Stratosphere. However I feel some are expecting HLB too soon. It appears to me that towards mid Jan we are going to see the PV split and weaken with one lobe vacating Greenland and backing W whilst pressure builds across Greenland. As a result we shall finally see a negative NAO develop. Hopefully this might be shown over the coming days in the F.I charts. You can even see the beginnings of this on the N Hemisphere 18Z GFS run.

My comment with regard to F.I charts in the coming days appear to be showing themselves on the GFS runs.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015010218/gfsnh-0-384.png?18

 

Hopefully this is just the beginning to the trend towards more exciting F.I charts becoming reality.

[shaky]

Anyway talk of straw clutching! ! Is there any chance of snow tomorrow morning acorss central areas fergie?

[Nick L]

My comment with regard to F.I charts in the coming days appear to be showing themselves on the GFS runs.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015010218/gfsnh-0-384.png?18

 

Hopefully this is just the beginning to the trend towards more exciting F.I charts becoming reality.

 

With respect, TEITS, that's a +384 chart, surely a few more runs are required before claiming victory..?

[stratty]

With respect, TEITS, that's a +384 chart, surely a few more runs are required before claiming victory..?

............and they have been showing the same sort of thing for the last few days, as has been pointed out by many! 

We can but hope they come to fruition!

[Long haul to mild]

Not all doom and gloom.

gem-0-102.png

I agree that there are causes for optimism in the future but that chart isn't one of them sadly. Raging PV to the North West, Azores high stretching into Europe, and a small feature crossing us bringing lots of rain; uppers of -4 won't be of any use for snow in that setup (unless you live in a shack up a mountainside)

Edited January 2, 2015 by Long haul to mild

[Argyle1980]

............and they have been showing the same sort of thing for the last few days, as has been pointed out by many!

We can but hope they come to fruition!

Thank you and it's also something I have been watching for a while now and I believe the Zonal train will slow down by the 3rd week of January !

Keep watching those modles people and take care.

Edited January 3, 2015 by Argyle1980

[Tamara]

12z clusters are offering glimpses of a different story after mid-month with markedly more meridional pattern(s), but of course it's just not worth detailing all that stuff showing out post-15 Jan until we see a fair few more output cycles for signs of continuity.

Hi Ian - as you usually say, its not worth detailing far flung model land in true unbiased Met parlance 

 

However, as this is a snow model output thread  ....

 

As per earlier post today - its a case of whether these post-15 Jan 12z meridional clusters (and quite conceivably future ensemble suites in days to come) are indicative of simply another late December Atlantic amplified ridge reprise away from the flat pattern status quo, courtesy of temporary Pacific pattern retrogression.  A sequence occurring in response to truncated western/mid Pacific MJO wave - before dying and re-emerging yet again back in Phase 3 and flattening out downstream into the Atlantic for a second time into renewed sub tropical ridging +NAO Azores ridge cycle.

 

Or, alternatively, whether this latest tentative signal represents the very beginnings of a long road towards a radical sea change of an emerging -NAO through the second half of the month (and perhaps more towards months end) to support a more sustained higher latitude blocking regime courtesy of Greenland/Canadian vortex detonation.

 

The latter, (very obviously) can't begin to be answered at all at this stage because of Stratospheric vortex attack activity work-in-progress. I am suspending my own opinion on latest (possible) uptick updates in this respect, because there have been false dawns so far - and would rather work with something concrete in terms of signal.

 

If that is to emerge at all of course at some stage in the foreseeable future - the developing picture can hopefully be properly ascertained once the Berlin site emerges from its festive holiday in the next day or two maybe 

 

However, the former atmospheric signal is already set in stone, and can be assimilated into on going modelling assessment with confidence - until or if any new signal gains subsequent traction to usurp it at some time in the future

 

As a snow enthusiast, I would clearly very much wish to favour the latter signal - however my little weather head realistically looks at the former until proved properly otherwise  .

[A.J]

Love the far reaches of FI tonight, bang on with my unpublished predictions & LRF for the winter which called for colder than the autumn with a 50% chance of snow, and a 50% chance of no snow 

[Blake]

Not all doom and gloom.

 

gem-0-102.png

 

Looks like 4c-10c nationwide with a band of rain stretching N-S to me? That rather small LP over northern parts is a pretty redundant feature and will have no effect in my opinion. Just variable winds off the north west as opposed to a generally W/NW windflow. Of course the mountains will benefit, that's about it I think.

[Snowman.]

Downward trend after the day 10 period.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015010218/graphe3_1000_306_141___Londres.gif

[Daniel*]

Tentative sings emerging out in FI - 'halt to the zonal express'

Jet stream diving South to the med

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn38414.gif

Mid Atlantic ridge more keen on exerting +ve heights over where we need it

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

Overall I am slightly optimistic I see a transition gaining pace to colder pattern, the models are gradually coming away from the idea of a zonal dominated January - week 3 & 4 holds promise IMO.

[Diegus Vessella]

Good night .. A beautiful heated polar vortex

[Mucka]

Good morning.

Some interesting developments this morning with the Azores high being less of a spoiler, which if firmed up upon could mean snow falling some areas within 8 days, more especially in the North

 

 

Which may be more than run to run variability because it shows up even more on GFSp

 

 

And while that may be temporary cold GFS op it does open the door to deeper cold later though we still need to see improvements upstream if we wish to see a full pattern change.

 

Edited January 3, 2015 by Mucka

[Cheshire Freeze]

Very interesting once again into FI on the 0z GFS....another false dawn or maybe something more interesting brewing for the second half of the month??

[Mucka]

Very interesting once again into FI on the 0z GFS....another false dawn or maybe something more interesting brewing for the second half of the month??

 

I guess it depends on expectations Crew.

If your dawn is colder weather with a chance of snow then it won't be a false dawn IMO though it may be a short day

If it is for a blocked long lasting cold spell then best not get too excited just yet.

 

GFSp goes along similar lines to GFS op and has widespread snow in FI but it is still a glorified toppler. 

 

 

Still, it is a move int he riight direction and we needed to see the operational output show some willing to displace the Azores high sooner or later if we were to have any faith in what maybe some proper cold solutions popping up among the ensembles.

Hopefully the ensembles will firm up on a colder period second week of Jan but also have a few members go for something a bit more sustained.

Edited January 3, 2015 by Mucka

[Mucka]

If this mornings output is anything near the mark there could be some very "interesting" weather around later next week.

After all the talk of boring zonal conditions we could be faced with a severe storm, blizzards over the hills and even snow to low levels in the North.

Plenty of ensemble members have cold air digging in far enough South for some snow while others have a rather nasty storm rapidly following behind the first deep deprssion that drags in some colder air. 

UKMO also has a storm though its track is a little further North. Certainly something else to watch along with snow and pattern change chances. Probably too far out to be worthy of comment from Fergie as yet but the MetO will have one eye on developments later next week and beyond for sure.

 

Edited January 3, 2015 by Mucka

[Mucka]

Come Watson, the game is afoot!

 

[knocker]

Usual story with the GFS and (P) this morning with lows running around the HP and all just depends on how far north. the GFS is more bullish bringing them a tad more south with briefly some snow next weekend but then..........................

Charts courtesy weatherbell

 

[TEITS]

With respect, TEITS, that's a +384 chart, surely a few more runs are required before claiming victory..?

How exactly am I claming victory. Just pointing out that the cold F.I charts I mentioned are now appearing on the GFS runs. Whether they actually become reality is another matter. Please read my posts properly because I did state I hope this trend becomes reality.

 

This mornings GFS & GEFS control run continues with the trend.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-384.png?0

[Captain Shortwave]

Out to day 10, whilst there are some minor variations in amplification of the westerly flow, the pattern looks pretty solid with very low heights to the north/north west, whilst high pressure remains over the East Siberia/Alaska region. 

ECM just an example

 

One other uncertainty is about potential secondary lows bring much wilder conditions, shown by the GFS (P) and more especially the UKMO

 

Beyond this, yeah there are signs, but nothing to really get my hopes up yet about a colder second half to January.

Edited January 3, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[knocker]

Did a comparison of the last three days of the 12z ECM EPS extended anomaly  last night starting on the 31st at T360 - T312 just out of interest re, the evolution.

It went thus.

Development of quite strong Alaskan trough into Pacific. More pronounced ridging in the US although weak but more notable a change of orientation of the Hudson Bay trough and expansion of same. By T312 yesterday In fact another centre had developed north of the UK with a trough running south down the North Sea. Thus on the surface analysis the low pressure is pushed more NE and perhaps increasing heights western Atlantic and maybe a weaker split jet emanating from the US.