Model Output Discussion; into 2015

[Carlrg]

Everyone is looking into FI for any possible change in synoptic and possible cold. All I was showing was the huge difference between a certain model run at that timescale that's all.

Edited January 2, 2015 by Carlrg

[picog]

Well, snowing hard in Edinburgh... so not all doom and gloom!  Can someone please  post a link that explains  what MJO phase impacts NH weather?

thanks

Try Wiki, it has quite an easy to understand explanation as I recall.

[Frosty.]

A few 6z perturbations to bring a little cheer for those with a cold disposition. As you probably know, I want to see more than just a few days of cold weather here and there, I want to see a pattern change well away from what we have now. I want to see a less intrusive Azores high, I want to see the jet digging much further south, I want to see proper winter arriving. Anyway, here are a few promising charts.

Edited January 2, 2015 by Frosty.

[Diegus Vessella]

Good morning to all the forum ....... gfs 10 hpa shows an attack on the polar vortex with possible outcomes around the 20th of the month .... What do you think?

Edited January 2, 2015 by Diegus Vessella

[Tamara]

There continues to be much searching for a knock-out stratospheric induced punch to the Greenland/Canadian vortex conundrum of interminable westerlies/intermittent cyclonicity downstream - but, repetition as I know it is ,we also need to look at the bigger picture in terms of the atmospheric forcings and the dominant role they are playing in not only mitigating the attempted vortex attacks, but also cyclically locking us into this +ve NAO pattern.

 

The seasonal evolution, as I stated yesterday is certainly not going to plan for the cold hearted winter - although as Ian F rightly replied to me,  it is going very much to plan according to the METO predictions thus far.

 

A large problem is rooted, as described before in some previous posts, upstream/into the Western Pacific with recyling convective waves (MJO) rooting back towards the Indian Ocean and resultant failure to follow right through the Pacific towards the amplified forcings to assist us downstream in our section of the NH (Phase 7 heading into /8/1) and the overwriting of the ocean Nino signal which would in turn force a quite different and much colder teleconnectic response. The one anticipated might emerge (apart from the METO) a month or so back

 

To underline the cyclical nature - SST signatures in the Western Pacific have shown anomalous warmth into winter - much behind the unfortunate Typhoon activity in the Philippines

 

The Nina type signal supports a sub tropical > mid latitudes ridging forcing pattern, pushing the jet stream north across the US, and hence the prominent role of the Azores High and the consequent +ve NAO we have downstream - which only 'helps us' with occasional GWO assistance in tandem when the MJO tries to approach the dateline.

 

This sequence happened in the second half of December - and no coincidence it provided the transitory Atlantic amplification last week, and some much welcomed wintry interest for various parts of the country - albeit far from everyone.

 

Under the prevailing -ve AAM Nina atmospheric pattern, this scenario represents the 'best' wintry potential we can muster  at the moment (in the absence of a large enough stratospheric induced detonator focussed in the Atlantic sector to destroys the vortices that keep re-roosting up to our NW)

 

A North Pacific ridge, SW/Central US trough, SE US Ridge, Greenland/Canadian vortex and Azores High is the template cycle for the 'lock-in' signal to return to, as long as the Pacific signal remains the same - and in the absence of amplified MJO forcing.... and of course a suitable Atlantic sector trop/strat detonator.

 

Tentative long distance ensemble signals of re-amplification in the Atlantic along with the Azores High retracting NW and a cold trough over the UK and NW Europe is exactly the same signal we were looking at through the second half of December - as the Pacific pattern temporarily retrograded and the -ve EPO ridge moved north into the pole

 

We know what the reality has been, in terms of the transitory downstream Atlantic amplification, and the MJO dying and re-emerging back in Phase 3 to start a new cycle in the Indian Ocean....

 

This is certainly better for sure than last winter managed in 3 months - but it is a far far cry from those early Siberian High -ve AO feedback expectations

 

I referred to Jan 2009 a few days back. More repetition I know, sorry, but on that occasion as I referred to we successfully 'negotiated' a massive SSW under a Nina type regime with -ve AAM. This temporarily dislodged the Azores High and Greenland/Canadian vortex combo and combined, in the absence of geo-magnetic flux activity, to keep the weather through February intermittently colder at times. However, background -ve AAM and low orbit GWO cycling ensured that we never saw the whole potential benefit from the SSW.

 

In some senses we are worse off this time around, as we have solar forcing which is more active than in 2009. This will be letting the polar vortex off the hook ( despite its relative weakness in comparison to last winter) and inhibiting tropospheric/stratospheric wave action and propagation potential.

 

However, one step at a time. Its a case of continuing to look for the elusive silver bullet from up above and lets see if this can arrive and how much it can mitigate the unfavourable Nina-esque pattern and reluctant MJO cycling this winter.

 

My lack of optimism mooted about a week back regarding the current MJO wave making it to Phase 7 and onwards continues, as underpinned by seasonal -ve AAM.

 

It is true that there is some divergence amongst MJO forecasts. If we get towards Phase 6 and 7, as in the last cycle in December, this might well, in tandem with amplified GWO phase 2, once again produce a downstream amplified Atlantic scenario - as hinted at in those G5 and ECM ensembles around the mid month period.

 

However, another spiral into COD thereafter (Circle of death, doom, despondency.. take your pick!) will probably signify another phase of Nina atmospheric winter phase +NAO lock-in and by this time we will be looking towards February (I say this of course in the absence of that suitable stratospheric trigger in the meantime)

 

The next week or two needs something very definite to emerge from stratospheric developments on the basis that the current wave activity hopes have not thus far delivered the SSW hopes required. The wave activity has been strong, but not as strong as some forecasts had indicated, and it has left the residual vortex strength we see limpeted over Greenland.

 

Recent geomagnetic activity will surely have contributed towards the (too) brief split and re-organisation of the vortex which sets the scene for the zonal phase we have to endure in the coming 10 day + period.

 

The worst case scenario in the absence of any suitable trigger, is waiting for natural changing wave lengths to teleconnect the recycling -ve AAM pattern to colder more amplified conditions - but this is a time period unacceptable for those of us who are looking for some heart of winter seasonal cold and wintry conditions.

 

There is absolutely no necessity to consider 'worst case scenarios' yet of course. But also it does underpin what we want to see to shake up the atmospheric rut.

 

I wrote some time back in a post about 'calling the atmosphere in to do us a favour' along with stratospheric detonation.

 

Those are wishes on my Christmas list that didn't deliver. No early 2015 beaten up coke can either that is for sure

 

Ah well - onwards and upwards hopefully - as they say  

Edited January 2, 2015 by Tamara תָּמָר

[karlos1983]

Good morning to all the forum ....... gfs 10 hpa shows an attack on the polar vortex with possible outcomes around the 20th of the month .... What do you think?

 

A) it doesn't last very long and B) we won't really know what's going on (or have a better idea at least to make an educated prediction), until the EC sorts it's life out! strart server wise. 

Edited January 2, 2015 by karlos1983

[nick sussex]

No change from the GFS 06hrs run and in this type of set up you yearn to see just one model throw out a different solution.

 

Sadly model reliability goes up with a flat zonal picture but it will change at some point although it must feel like we're stuck in a Groundhog Day scenario!

 

It's very frustrating to see weeks of winter wasted with such dire output but theres not a great deal we can do but sit and wait.

 

I suppose the current output and last winters horror show really highlight how snow for the UK is the exception rather than the rule, several better winters perhaps brought a false sense of "snow" security.

 

I remember during those better winters having a few run ins with people who were moaning about the amounts of snow they received, the bar got raised so that 5cms was no longer good enough, because down the road got 10.

 

The point I'm making is that every snowfall in the UK is really a matter of celebration even if its just a few cm's.

 

There are of course no guarantees that the winter will change, it could well be the PV just rules the day, but equally I've seen some dreadful outputs as have others that seemed never ending but they did change.

 

If we just write off the next ten days that brings us to roughly mid month, still 6 weeks of winter left, we could still cram some fun in during that time.

Edited January 2, 2015 by nick sussex

[cyclonic happiness]

No change from the GFS 06hrs run and in this type of set up you yearn to see just one model throw out a different solution.

 

Sadly model reliability goes up with a flat zonal picture but it will change at some point although it must feel like we're stuck in a Groundhog Day scenario!

 

It's very frustrating to see weeks of winter wasted with such dire output but theres not a great deal we can do but sit and wait.

 

I suppose the current output and last winters horror show really highlight how snow for the UK is the exception rather than the rule, several better winters perhaps brought a false sense of "snow" security.

 

I remember during those better winters having a few run ins with people who were moaning about the amounts of snow they received, the bar got raised so that 5cms was no longer good enough, because down the road got 10.

 

The point I'm making is that every snowfall in the UK is really a matter of celebration even if its just a few cm's.

 

There are of course no guarantees that the winter will change, it could well be the PV just rules the day, but equally I've seen some dreadful outputs as have others that seemed never ending but they did change.

 

If we just write off the next ten days that brings us to roughly mid month, still 6 weeks of winter left, we could still cram some fun in during that time.

Someone posted the 'average days of lying snow' map from the Met Office, and even my location says there are around 10-15 days of lying snow. Does that mean 'lying' as in it rain pretending to be snow? :-D

 

Snow may be rare, but it shouldn't be extinct 2 years in a row, our children are not going to know what snow is...ehem!

[Frosty.]

When northern USA goes back into the freezer, at least there will be a few new live winter storm chasing videos to enjoy. Even though our own winter is pretty rubbish so far, I do think there are hints from the models for a colder second half of January with Greenland height rises, displaced Azores high and a substantial Scandinavian trough.

[nick sussex]

Someone posted the 'average days of lying snow' map from the Met Office, and even my location says there are around 10-15 days of lying snow. Does that mean 'lying' as in it rain pretending to be snow? :-D

 

Snow may be rare, but it shouldn't be extinct 2 years in a row, our children are not going to know what snow is...ehem!

I'm not sure what the time period is for the average days in terms of how many years data they include. In terms of extinct it was that way for quite a few years before that recent run of more snowier winters.

 

I know everyones patience is wearing thin which is totally understandable, lets see where we are early next week in terms of the NWP.

[Eugene]

When northern USA goes back into the freezer, at least there will be a few new live winter storm chasing videos to enjoy. Even though our own winter is pretty rubbish so far, I do think there are hints from the models for a colder second half of January with Greenland height rises, displaced Azores high and a substantial Scandinavian trough.

 

 

I don't agee at all, many more frosts so far this winter than last and some decent snow for northern UK, December only came in slightly above average mainly due to the south, midlands northwards its been pretty good so far.

[knocker]

 

Recent geomagnetic activity will surely have contributed towards the (too) brief split and re-organisation of the vortex which sets the scene for the zonal phase we have to endure in the coming 10 day + period.

 

 

I'm not sure I fully understand the reference to geomagnetic activity Tamara so if you could kindly expand just a little it would be appreciated, I've read this paper but it still leaves me in the dark with reference to the current situation.

 

http://www.physics.otago.ac.nz/space/2012JD018946R_Revised_upload.pdf

[IDO]

The CFS MJO is a bit more promising on it's latest run from mid-Jan as it manages to push through phase 7, taking circa 7-9 days in that phase:

 

 Composite: 

 

So the hints from the GEFS (again around 33% on 06z) may not be unfounded. The NAO shows that possibility a bit more:

 

A downward trend towards mid-month. 

 

We really need this to not be a false dawn, otherwise Jan may pass us by, as then we are into the last few weeks of the official winter and no second chances from there.

 

In the interim there remains a sign that Saturday week will be mild, ECM: 

 

Then a slow decline towards slightly below average temps for London.

[IDO]

I'm not sure I fully understand the reference to geomagnetic activity Tamara so if you could kindly expand just a little it would be appreciated, I've read this paper but it still leaves me in the dark with reference to the current situation.

 

http://www.physics.otago.ac.nz/space/2012JD018946R_Revised_upload.pdf

 

Hi 

 

"A third potential factor in Polar Vortex behavior is that “geomagnetic activity (used as a measure of solar wind parameters)†plays a role in the “variability of large-scale climate patterns and on changes in the global temperature.â€, i.e.: “We have found positive statistically significant correlations between global temperature and the distribution of surface temperature over Eurasia, the East and Equatorial Pacific and over the North Atlantic for the period 1966-2009 correspond to large-scale climate patterns defined by climate indices. We found very similar positive correlations between geomagnetic activity and the distribution of surface temperature in the mentioned regions. As an effect of geomagnetic storms, energetic particles penetrate from the magnetosphere into the region of the stratospheric polar vortex. The increase of temperature and pressure can be observed over northern Canada. The vortex shifts towards Europe, rotates counter-clockwise and the wind blows from the polar region over Greenland southwards. It diverts the warm flow proceeding northward over the Atlantic, eastward along the deep Icelandic low extending as far as the Barents Sea and takes part in warming Eurasia. The strengthened zonal flow from Siberia cools the western Pacific with the impact on the warming of the equatorial and eastern Pacific when also a distinct 1976-78 climate shift occurred. Processes in the Atlantic and Pacific play a significant role and a time delay (wind forcing over the previous 1-4 yr) appears to be the most important for the relocation of the oceanic gyres. Results showing statistically significant relations between time series for geomagnetic activity, for the sum of climate indices and for the global temperature help to verify findings concerning the chain of processes from the magnetosphere to the troposphere.†Studia Geophysica & Geodaetica, Bucha 2012"

 

From an interesting article on PV displacement: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/02/01/a-displaced-polar-vortex-and-its-causes/

 

Looks like the upcoming pattern summed up well.

Edited January 2, 2015 by i'm dreaming of...

[Frosty.]

There is something about the extended MO update which bothers me, there is apparently a weak signal for the south to become fine with the north staying unsettled, it bothers me that this could mean rather than the jet digging south, that the jet would in fact be forced further north along with high pressure from southern Europe..hope I'm completely wrong about this.

[Frosty.]

I don't agee at all, many more frosts so far this winter than last and some decent snow for northern UK, December only came in slightly above average mainly due to the south, midlands northwards its been pretty good so far.

It's been rubbish in the south so far surely?

Further north a few wintry days out of 33..room for improvement.

[meathead]

Anyone writing off the rest of the winter needs to get their head checked out. For all you know the models could flip to cold tomorrow. Just a gut feeling but I really think the SSW will be our savoir this winter and models will start picking up on it sometime next week.

It's been rubbish in the south so far surely?
Further north a few wintry days out of 33..room for improvement.

 

Maybe has been rubbish in the south but as I type this message it's 1 degrees here and has been snowing on and off all day. 

[Frosty.]

I'm not writing winter off, just saying it needs to buck it's ideas up before Feb, latest mo update is once again very uninspiring for coldies.

[Jonathan Lang]

I think this deep low just to the south of Greenland is important if we are going to get cold and snow. If it develops just a bit further south than shown or even just weaker, I think the high pressure cell by the UK could then ridge into Greenland and latch onto the high already there. The low would then be forced to track much further south.

 

[meathead]

I'm not writing winter off, just saying it needs to buck it's ideas up before Feb, latest mo update is once again very uninspiring for coldies.

 

Don't forget March as well. Maybe our winters are just going to start later from now? I hope 

[MR EXTREMES]

Hi 

 

"A third potential factor in Polar Vortex behavior is that “geomagnetic activity (used as a measure of solar wind parameters)†plays a role in the “variability of large-scale climate patterns and on changes in the global temperature.â€, i.e.: “We have found positive statistically significant correlations between global temperature and the distribution of surface temperature over Eurasia, the East and Equatorial Pacific and over the North Atlantic for the period 1966-2009 correspond to large-scale climate patterns defined by climate indices. We found very similar positive correlations between geomagnetic activity and the distribution of surface temperature in the mentioned regions. As an effect of geomagnetic storms, energetic particles penetrate from the magnetosphere into the region of the stratospheric polar vortex. The increase of temperature and pressure can be observed over northern Canada. The vortex shifts towards Europe, rotates counter-clockwise and the wind blows from the polar region over Greenland southwards. It diverts the warm flow proceeding northward over the Atlantic, eastward along the deep Icelandic low extending as far as the Barents Sea and takes part in warming Eurasia. The strengthened zonal flow from Siberia cools the western Pacific with the impact on the warming of the equatorial and eastern Pacific when also a distinct 1976-78 climate shift occurred. Processes in the Atlantic and Pacific play a significant role and a time delay (wind forcing over the previous 1-4 yr) appears to be the most important for the relocation of the oceanic gyres. Results showing statistically significant relations between time series for geomagnetic activity, for the sum of climate indices and for the global temperature help to verify findings concerning the chain of processes from the magnetosphere to the troposphere.†Studia Geophysica & Geodaetica, Bucha 2012"

 

From an interesting article on PV displacement: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/02/01/a-displaced-polar-vortex-and-its-causes/

 

Looks like the upcoming pattern summed up well.

this post here is a direct kick in the teeth and is something ive been looking into in my own time!.

 

but way way more work and data needed.

 

this is i strongly believe is out weighing the other drivers id go as far to say its whats been feeding the vortex,

its also worth noting that the jets are stronger and tend to stay futher north during higher solar outputs and i really cant wait for the next lull or minimum.

 

back around cycle 24 minimum where the sun was spotless,

not only when a ssw event took place the jet was already futher south and blocking was already taking shape early that winter but 08 also during the lull in the suns output also was the first sign that the jet pattern coupled with the less strong vortex was already showing signs of a change to cooler/colder winters.

 

so whats happened well the mighty sun is far more awake than back then.

 really shows how directly the sun does force our weather patterns.

 

i dont expect to see the models changing there minds anytime soon infact im starting to think that where now starting to feel the effects of a solar maximum.

this includes a very robust polar vortex and strong jet streak.

 

feb is normally the month where we see a more relaxed zonal pattern but i fear that this feb maybe just as bad as last year.

[CanadaAl]

I think this deep low just to the south of Greenland is important if we are going to get cold and snow. If it develops just a bit further south than shown or even just weaker, I think the high pressure cell by the UK could then ridge into Greenland and latch onto the high already there. The low would then be forced to track much further south.

 

Yeah, i was thinking we could be looking for a nice little surprise into early next week but It looks like the Atlantic is just too strong this time round Hope i'm wrong though 

[knocker]

Hi 

 

"A third potential factor in Polar Vortex behavior is that “geomagnetic activity (used as a measure of solar wind parameters)†plays a role in the “variability of large-scale climate patterns and on changes in the global temperature.â€, i.e.: “We have found positive statistically significant correlations between global temperature and the distribution of surface temperature over Eurasia, the East and Equatorial Pacific and over the North Atlantic for the period 1966-2009 correspond to large-scale climate patterns defined by climate indices. We found very similar positive correlations between geomagnetic activity and the distribution of surface temperature in the mentioned regions. As an effect of geomagnetic storms, energetic particles penetrate from the magnetosphere into the region of the stratospheric polar vortex. The increase of temperature and pressure can be observed over northern Canada. The vortex shifts towards Europe, rotates counter-clockwise and the wind blows from the polar region over Greenland southwards. It diverts the warm flow proceeding northward over the Atlantic, eastward along the deep Icelandic low extending as far as the Barents Sea and takes part in warming Eurasia. The strengthened zonal flow from Siberia cools the western Pacific with the impact on the warming of the equatorial and eastern Pacific when also a distinct 1976-78 climate shift occurred. Processes in the Atlantic and Pacific play a significant role and a time delay (wind forcing over the previous 1-4 yr) appears to be the most important for the relocation of the oceanic gyres. Results showing statistically significant relations between time series for geomagnetic activity, for the sum of climate indices and for the global temperature help to verify findings concerning the chain of processes from the magnetosphere to the troposphere.†Studia Geophysica & Geodaetica, Bucha 2012"

 

From an interesting article on PV displacement: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/02/01/a-displaced-polar-vortex-and-its-causes/

 

Looks like the upcoming pattern summed up well.

 

Thanks for that ido so are we saying this is contributing to the the re-organisation of the vortex? It doesn't seem that clear cut to me as previously mentioned in:

 

Geomagnetic activity signatures in wintertime stratosphere wind, temperature, and wave response

 

http://www.physics.otago.ac.nz/space/2012JD018946R_Revised_upload.pdf

 

 

[knocker]

this is i strongly believe is out weighing the other drivers id go as far to say its whats been feeding the vortex,

its also worth noting that the jets are stronger and tend to stay futher north during higher solar outputs and i really cant wait for the next lull or minimum.

 

 

Have you any references for that?

[Jonathan Lang]

Yeah, i was thinking we could be looking for a nice little surprise into early next week but It looks like the Atlantic is just too strong this time round Hope i'm wrong though 

I think it's also worth noting it nearly succeeds in FI on the GFSP. Wouldn't take much to make that succeed I think and I believe it may do on future runs.

 

Edited January 2, 2015 by Jonathan Lang