Model Output Discussion; into 2015

[Captain Shortwave]

Day 6 charts

ECM

South westerly winds at this time but generally a variable westerly pattern with milder and cooler interludes.

 

UKMO

Similar but with lower heights near the UK increasing the wind and rain potential.

 

GFS

Similar westerly airstream, the day 7/8 charts are particularly gruesome with a 1045mb slug over Iberia and 850s in double figures over a large area of the UK.

 

Parallel

Similar to the GFS beyond this point

 

GEM

Probably the best of the bunch offering a more west to north-westerly pattern, hence generally a cooler pattern compared to the others. 

 

In the end, very little on offer at the moment, though signs at the end of week 2 on the GFS that things may improve with cooler and calmer conditions developing, this seemingly backed up by the ECM and metoffice in house models to so something to shoot for. 

[Frosty.]

Early next week looks fine for a time but then unsettled weather returns with a vengeance, the Ecm 00z op run perfectly captures the flip flopping between mild Tm air one day and colder Polar Maritime the next, this continues beyond T+240 with wet and windy milder days interspersed with colder showery conditions with snow on northern hills and night frosts.

[Jason M]

A very fair summary by Frosty IMHO :-)

Looking through this morning I'd agree with others that there is a hint of change out towards mid month. GEFS showing some a few colder options towards the end. Who knows, we may even get some decent eye candy to raise the spirits over the next couple of days. It's going to be a tough pattern to break though so we need this glimmer of hope to be built on over future runs.

[bluearmy]

The EC32 anomalies this morning show no major change up to FEB, After intially intensifying the HP on the eastern seaboard it reverts to Hudson low and weak trough Iceland south. So surface analysis maintains low pressure to NW/N and HP to the SW/S and the general zonality with temps hovering around average.

This post is probably superfluous as Fergie and Nick have already posted,

Tbh knocker, the EC 32 which was run yesterday's 00z was inline with the normal ens run at that time. Go back 24 hours and the ECM ens and gefs were agreed on the jet being much further south than the last few ens runs of gefs and 2 ECM's. In ten days, the ECM ens had the 528 dam across c England. Now it's n of Scotland with mean pressure way higher. The trough no longer digging into e Europe. That EC 32 update appears to show potential for some wintry conditions end week 2 and through week 3 but with the mean now so different at day 10, I'm not sure I can put any faith in that. I suspect expect already spotted this disconnect and will continue to be vague in the 14/30 day forecast.

Incidentally, the new ECM extended show the Canadian vortex pivoting and sending some v low heights into the n Atlantic which should push the jet further south and could see us under quite a trough (cold) around mid month. Early days but the background noise around mid month getting louder.

Also, the cut off trough which develops nw Africa in week 2 does us no favours by supporting the Azores extension on a more east rather than se course.

Edited January 2, 2015 by bluearmy

[Frosty.]

A very fair summary by Frosty IMHO :-)

.

Thanks Jason, I know my post won't be popular because nobody wants to read about mild alternating with cool from day to day. Most of us are yearning for prolonged deep cold to take advantage of the height of winter with a very low sun and short days before the sun increases in strength and height during February. For me, January is the month I dream about delivering the wintry goodies, my hope is that the second half of January will be colder than the first half.

[nick sussex]

To use an analogy this morning we've turned up at the buffet table but unfortunately all the poached salmon has gone and we're left with some stale potato salad and minging coleslaw!

 

Not much change today with variations on the same mobile theme, the PV in charge at least to day ten, thereafter a few crumbs with this perhaps weakening.

 

I tend to be wary of ensembles showing a change at longer range in this type of set up, the first step is to see that rounded PV to the north take on a more stretched look and this to appear within T168hrs.

 

In terms of the ECM ensembles  post day ten the main cluster turns somewhat colder for De Bilt, given comments from Ian F, these probably more in relation to troughing digging further se into mainland Europe with the Azores high displacing further to the west.

Edited January 2, 2015 by nick sussex

[mushymanrob]

Early next week looks fine for a time but then unsettled weather returns with a vengeance, the Ecm 00z op run perfectly captures the flip flopping between mild Tm air one day and colder Polar Maritime the next, this continues beyond T+240 with wet and windy milder days interspersed with colder showery conditions with snow on northern hills and night frosts.

 

no no no karl.... youre supposed to ramp up the colder pm incursions so i can give an alternative view, youre not supposed to be reasonable!

spot on .... theres no getting around it, its all looking very average overall which is pretty dull for this forum because theres nothing much to get hopes for except staw clutching. and if the EC anomalys that knocker mentions prove correct (no major change this month) then it does look rather bleak for deep cold this winter.  no, im not writing off a deep cold spell, but as time passes its becoming gradually more unlikely.

in saying that, i do think a shorter widespread cold spell is likely, maybe a week - 10 days, but thats just a hunch based on recent events. nothing science based so its probably nonsense

[Frosty.]

no no no karl.... youre supposed to ramp up the colder pm incursions so i can give an alternative view, youre not supposed to be reasonable! :laugh:spot on .... theres no getting around it, its all looking very average overall which is pretty dull for this forum because theres nothing much to get hopes for except staw clutching. and if the EC anomalys that knocker mentions prove correct (no major change this month) then it does look rather bleak for deep cold this winter.  no, im not writing off a deep cold spell, but as time passes its becoming gradually more unlikely.in saying that, i do think a shorter widespread cold spell is likely, maybe a week - 10 days, but thats just a hunch based on recent events. nothing science based so its probably nonsense

LOL mushy, nothing worth ramping today.

[Frosty.]

LOL I spoke too soon..GEFS 00z control run brings winter to the UK. BANK :-)

[knocker]

Tbh knocker, the EC 32 which was run yesterday's 00z was inline with the normal ens run at that time. Go back 24 hours and the ECM ens and gefs were agreed on the jet being much further south than the last few ens runs of gefs and 2 ECM's. In ten days, the ECM ens had the 528 dam across c England. Now it's n of Scotland with mean pressure way higher. The trough no longer digging into e Europe. That EC 32 update appears to show potential for some wintry conditions end week 2 and through week 3 but with the mean now so different at day 10, I'm not sure I can put any faith in that. I suspect expect already spotted this disconnect and will continue to be vague in the 14/30 day forecast.

Incidentally, the new ECM extended show the Canadian vortex pivoting and sending some v low heights into the n Atlantic which should push the jet further south and could see us under quite a trough (cold) around mid month. Early days but the background noise around mid month getting louder.

Also, the cut off trough which develops nw Africa in week 2 does us no favours by supporting the Azores extension on a more east rather than se course.

 

Yes I would concur with that ba loolkng at the extended EPS around T300 with the jet weakening as well.

 

EDIT

I see the NCEP ens has the trough further east

 

Edited January 2, 2015 by knocker

[johnholmes]

Anyone hoping the anomaly charts might show some signal, however slight for any change-then sorry nothing in the 6-10 3 issues nor in the one 8-14 output.

[Frosty.]

Anyone hoping the anomaly charts might show some signal, however slight for any change-then sorry nothing in the 6-10 3 issues nor in the one 8-14 output.

I think the interest lies just beyond the 8-14 range and if anything like this lies in store for second half of month I will be delighted, this chart is a throwback to Dec 2010 with our usual pattern reversed. This chart is a thing of beauty.

[johnholmes]

perhaps frosty, and although the anomalies do really only have validity 6-15 days, I am not yet convinced that there is anything to suggest that type of charts developing from using them or indeed looking at longer term drivers, it is 2 days since I had a good look at the MJO so will do that. The 8-14 NOAA still suggests nothing major occurring by day 14 so that, if it is correct would rule your chart out. However, what is a small probability at the moment is that the overall upper air flow MIGHT start to turn a shade more north of west. Just the faintest signs of this but certainly not enough to make any more of it than Fergie via UK Met has suggested.

[fergieweather]

I think the interest lies just beyond the 8-14 range and if anything like this lies in store for second half of month I will be delighted, this chart is a throwback to Dec 2010 with our usual pattern reversed. This chart is a thing of beauty.

Yes, but let me reiterate any hint of zonality waning is weak and at this juncture very low confidence.

[johnholmes]

perhaps frosty, and although the anomalies do really only have validity 6-15 days, I am not yet convinced that there is anything to suggest that type of charts developing from using them or indeed looking at longer term drivers, it is 2 days since I had a good look at the MJO so will do that. The 8-14 NOAA still suggests nothing major occurring by day 14 so that, if it is correct would rule your chart out. However, what is a small probability at the moment is that the overall upper air flow MIGHT start to turn a shade more north of west. Just the faintest signs of this but certainly not enough to make any more of it than Fergie via UK Met has suggested.

And I see as I posted so did Fergie reiterating my and his earlier comments.

[karlos1983]

relative post for Mod thread I think by Tyfelin(Hope you don't mind) to lighten the mood maybe, from the strat thread this morning.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81567-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20142015/page-55#entry3104905 

[mulzy]

The horror show continues unabated with charts like these in the medium term:

 

 

Let's hope that this is the nadir and its onwards and upwards going forward...

 

My CET guess of 3.2C is based on a mild first half of Jan followed by a very cold second half - it was more of a hope-cast than anything else....

[Frosty.]

To see the jet digging further south would fill me with hope of a colder psttern becoming established beyond mid month and going by a few comments this morning, one from bluearmy springs to mind..perhaps there are reasons to be optimistic beyond the next few weeks.

[Big Innes Madori]

Let's call this post,Model Feed Back for Frosty!

The PM weather conditions which Frosty spoke of in recent days are proving to be accurate as we are having very heavy and blustery Snow showers at the moment,which is laying on the saturated ground after yesterday's continuous rain and temps of 10 Deg C +!

I guess the point I am trying to make here is that some of you guys can get this Model reading correct and where you have done so,then a few quick words in here to let you know if you have been accurate or not may help you all to further develope your skills!!!

Keep up the good work you guys.

Big Innes

Edited January 2, 2015 by Big Innes Madori

[TEITS]

 Just the faintest signs of this but certainly not enough to make any more of it than Fergie via UK Met has suggested.

Also worth mentioning that a few of us members have only suggested hints of a change.

 

Im not trying to be argumentative but sometimes it would be nice to acknowledge other members other than Fergie/Met O. Some of us predicted the colder spell during xmas ahead of the Met O but received sod all credit!

[stratty]

To see the jet digging further south would fill me with hope of a colder psttern becoming established beyond mid month and going by a few comments this morning, one from bluearmy springs to mind..perhaps there are reasons to be optimistic beyond the next few weeks.

...............I hope so - I need a snow day! 

 

Ensembles not fully out yet - but to my untrained eye, more seem to have LPs driving more southerly into Europe at around the 300 hour mark?

 

.........pretty desperate viewing........still!

[pdiddy]

Well, snowing hard in Edinburgh... so not all doom and gloom!  Can someone please  post a link that explains  what MJO phase impacts NH weather?

thanks

[johnholmes]

Also worth mentioning that a few of us members have only suggested hints of a change.

 

Im not trying to be argumentative but sometimes it would be nice to acknowledge other members other than Fergie/Met O. Some of us predicted the colder spell during xmas ahead of the Met O but received sod all credit!

morning Dave

Why so touchy as my comment was not intended in any way that you have taken it? Of course some of us predicted the colder spell prior to it happening, see my posts using the anomaly charts, prior to and on 19 December. My comment was merely to indicate that I agreed with the recent posts from Fergie quoting UK Met ideas as to it being a slight probability. Sorry you took offence as it was certainly not intended.

Hello John,  in the past when the anomaly charts have detected a change is it usually towards the end of an output and continued with the trend.or have ever you known them to show a change say 5 to 7 days away out of blue, having previously shown no hint of a change?(straw clutching at it's most desperate!)

 

Yes it has happened but it is fairly unusual, and yes it is more often that it is the 8-14 that starts to show some indiation but not always, oddly enough it can first show on the 6-10 even though it may not occur until the 8-14 day time frame. No idea why that happens though.

[Carlrg]

Big differences on the 00 Z and the 06 Z on the GEFS.

 

 

[draztik]

@Carlg

 

those are day 16 charts... from the gfs control.

That model is merely throwing darts at that timescale. Better sticking with the ecm ensembles post day 10 for guidance.

Edited January 2, 2015 by draztik