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Model Output Discussion; into 2015

martthefart

By martthefart
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Banbury Experienced

Banbury

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
Posted

Yes, models still poor for cold this morning, but was anyone really expecting any different? We've known for a few days now that a zonal spell will be taking place for the next couple of weeks but having just checked my calendar, I note that it is still December and even taking into account the output, assuming it is correct, that takes us to mid Jan. That means that we still have a whole two months opportunity to get something better (yes, I include the first half of March as historically I have seen far more snow then than I ever have in December).

 

An SSW may well happen over the next 10 days and if so we will need to see if that can produce something for us; but the models will not be picking up on that as yet. Even if it does not occur, it doesn't mean winter is a bust; there are other ways to get pattern change.

 

All coldies know the output is poor at the moment, but we also know things can and do change, and the weather has made fools out of very clever people in the past. It would certainly be nice to see the schadenfreude cut from some posts I have seen here in recent days.

Level headed post and a reminder that we are still in December

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

There is no longer a SSW predicted. ECM has backed off. Gfs hasn't forecast one. Given the current state of the strat, I think any strong reversal high up will show quite quickly on the trop modelling. Seems the ECM op strat modelling can be as over amped as the trop!

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

At least Scotland looks wintry at times, ecm looks like an upgrade for them but a downgrade for everyone else. We should here more from folk north of the border because we get a misleading picture due to most of the members being from southern England and in the upcoming pattern,it's the south which will suffer the most mild weather.

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snowy owl Community Regular

snowy owl

Posted
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, warm spring, hot summers - nae chance in Scottie though!
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl
Posted

Frosty can you show the upcoming wintry charts for Scotland?

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted (edited)

Yes, models still poor for cold this morning, but was anyone really expecting any different? We've known for a few days now that a zonal spell will be taking place for the next couple of weeks but having just checked my calendar, I note that it is still December and even taking into account the output, assuming it is correct, that takes us to mid Jan. That means that we still have a whole two months opportunity to get something better (yes, I include the first half of March as historically I have seen far more snow then than I ever have in December).

 

An SSW may well happen over the next 10 days and if so we will need to see if that can produce something for us; but the models will not be picking up on that as yet. Even if it does not occur, it doesn't mean winter is a bust; there are other ways to get pattern change.

 

All coldies know the output is poor at the moment, but we also know things can and do change, and the weather has made fools out of very clever people in the past. It would certainly be nice to see the schadenfreude cut from some posts I have seen here in recent days.

 

Yes all common sense and very reasonable. However it does appear that another wave of warming will be needed (at least) for a Major SSW (though that could be a recurring statement come March). The current warming, like November's could pass the UK by. So we have to try to look for the end of Jan for potential changes, we can't just assume it will change, the Canadian PV is known as "the Winter killer" for a reason.

 

The MJO just does not want to progress into an amplified cycle. The CFS keeps us in the unsettled regime and then hints at another circle of death just before it gets interesting:

 

post-14819-0-37388400-1420018695_thumb.p

 

So when it does this we are in something similar to the composite: post-14819-0-75945100-1420018773_thumb.g

 

This ties in with the consistent output from CFS over the last two weeks for Jan: post-14819-0-31685300-1420018899_thumb.p

 

Feb is now looking less likely of anything blocked: post-14819-0-18388400-1420018976_thumb.p

 

It is now March and April that a more blocked signal is detected in the CFS. So  of course nothing is set in stone, however the delay in the PV forming due to the disruption in November has meant poor timing with respect to its strengthening. Many thought that this reinvigorating PV would not be a problem as the various warmings' would be enough to kill the PV no matter how much it recovered. At the moment the PV -v- SSW is a long drawn out battle and whilst that takes place we have an awful setup for the Atlantic sector.

 

So yes the pattern may change later in January, but IMO it is more likely that it won't. No forecasts for Feb yet as a lot of water to go under the bridge before then.

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Frosty can you show the upcoming wintry charts for Scotland?

I did, the ecm charts I posted above!

Edited by Frosty.
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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

Frosty can you show the upcoming wintry charts for Scotland?

 

The beeb are showing snow for western scotland

 

These 850's are perfect for Scotland

 

ECU0-72.GIF?30-0ECU0-96.GIF?30-0

ECU1-72.GIF?30-0ECU1-96.GIF?30-0

Untitled.png

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karyo Maestro

karyo

Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
Posted

More high pressure to the south is bad news as it prevents any PM shots!!

One if the most stable synoptic types is what Brian Gaze on TWO christened the Zonal Bartlett with high pressure over Iberia, low pressure over Iceland and a strong zonal flow. This is modelled across the piste today and is very bad news IMO.

The only way out of this is for high pressure to the south to decline and the persistent low pressure to transfer towards Scandinavia, the movement northwards of the AH will not save us this time, in fact if is our nemesis.

Model watching does not get any worse than this that's for sure.

Andy

Agreed! The only way the AH could benefit us is if the jet wasn't so strong in which case it could move north enough to give some settled weather with frost but not with such a powerful jet. It seems that the MJO is totally unable to enter phases 7 and 8 and the stratospheric warming although noticeable it is not significant enough (SSW) to lead to any meaningful blocking for us.

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dragan Enthusiast

dragan

Posted
  • Location: Midlothian
  • Location: Midlothian
Posted

Average weather upcoming it seems. Looking at gfs/ecm it seems zonal all the way. The southern half of the country shouldnt be to wet however, the wettest weather reserved for the northwest i believe. Some brief cooler shots with more snow for the Scottish mountains, and possibly to lower levels in the north at times. 

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

There is no longer a SSW predicted. ECM has backed off. Gfs hasn't forecast one. Given the current state of the strat, I think any strong reversal high up will show quite quickly on the trop modelling. Seems the ECM op strat modelling can be as over amped as the trop!

 

WOW who would have believed that :rofl:

GEM & ECM D10 means: post-14819-0-00097400-1420020047_thumb.p post-14819-0-32250800-1420020047_thumb.g

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

As ss posted, Scotland and n.Ireland gets a cold blast in a few days and then again through F1 so it's not such a gloomy picture for northern UK as it will be in the south.

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Long haul to mild Community Regular

Long haul to mild

Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: April!
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
Posted

It is now March and April that a more blocked signal is detected in the CFS.

 

 

Blocking is always three months away on the CFS it seems!!! I really don't rate that model at all.

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John Badrick Enthusiast

John Badrick

Posted
  • Location: Bude
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather...heavy snow and heat waves
  • Location: Bude
Posted

At least we have a possible SSW to look forward to, just to observe it will be fun, if we benefit from it tropospherically will be a bonus too

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted

The beeb are showing snow for western scotland

 

These 850's are perfect for Scotland

 

ECU0-72.GIF?30-0ECU0-96.GIF?30-0

ECU1-72.GIF?30-0ECU1-96.GIF?30-0

Untitled.png

Remember that is the 12z output from yesterday though. :D

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karyo Maestro

karyo

Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
Posted

There is no longer a SSW predicted. ECM has backed off. Gfs hasn't forecast one. Given the current state of the strat, I think any strong reversal high up will show quite quickly on the trop modelling. Seems the ECM op strat modelling can be as over amped as the trop!

That's the worst news of the day! The wait continues and it is going to be a long one.

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Great Plum Rising Star

Great Plum

Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 78m asl
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 78m asl
Posted

Well, just because it's 'zonal' doesn't mean that the weather will be mild...

Sunday morning for example - a widespread frost with cool uppers under a high pressure:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn9617.gif

:)

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Wow it looks like becoming very mild in the south, 12 to 13c 55f. The daffodils will be shooting up in January at this rate!

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

Remember that is the 12z output from yesterday though. :D

 

Whoops! well the 00z still looks colder for Scotland anyway so fairly similar

 

:)

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Great Plum Rising Star

Great Plum

Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 78m asl
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 78m asl
Posted (edited)

Wow it looks like becoming very mild in the south, 12 to 13c 55f. The daffodils will be shooting up in January at this rate!

Not on Sunday...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn10817.gif

A maximum of 4 widely across much of the UK...

Followed by another widespread frost overnight...

The cool weather for the weekend seems to be enhanced on each run - nothing 'cold' but certainly not mild!

Edited by Great Plum
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Mair Snaw Veteran

Mair Snaw

Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
Posted

IDO

 

You know how unlikely that CFS chart is to come off , that is like me posting this one

 

 

cfsnh-0-6756.png?06

BANK!!!!!! LOL..

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
  • Popular Post
Posted

Hmmm everyone keeps banging on how mild its going to get but at the moment i dont see that!! Yes tomorrow will be mild but cold again from friday! ! Infact with all this talk of ssw and zonality in the long term nobody is paying attention to a small shortwave that is set to possibly cross wales/midlands/southern england at around 72 to 96 hours!! Cold uppers to the north of that and pretty much identical to the path that last fridays shortwave took except maybe further south! ! If it does snow across these areas then high pressure looks like pushing back in giving frosty weather similar to what we having now and the snow will stay for a while!!!!gfs paralell has that shortwave aswell!!! One thing ive noticed over the last 24 hours is that high pressure is set to build in stronger at around the day 4 and 5 mark compared to the flatter pattern that was forecasted 24 hours ago!! Who says things cant change further?

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