Model Output Discussion; into 2015

[snowking]

A lot of meteorologist/weather forecasters don't seem to like cold and snow, which I find very odd!

anyway back on topic, I think in a weeks time we will be looking at interesting charts, big warming forecast in the stratosphere over Greenland, this should make an impact and get a better NH profile.

First of all I think this is a bit of a misconception - take a look on YouTube at some of Mr's Schafenaker, Hammond, McElwee, Taylor etc forecasts around the time of snow. To quote Mr McElwee back in either 09 or 10 (I forget which), "proper winter".

However, even if this was true it should not be surprising - the less extreme the conditions the easier a forecasters job becomes. Nobody wants week after week of difficult to predict endless extreme weather if your job is to inform the public of said conditions, keeping them safe and helping them to make potentially life threatening decisions (perhaps extreme in terminology). From my short time as a paid forecaster believe me, you are praying for settled quiet weather - and in my instance it was not just affecting lives, it was potentially affecting commercial revenue too!

Sorry for the off topic post but worth pointing out I feel

SK

Edited December 30, 2014 by snowking

[johnholmes]

re the 'storm' it is 10 days away and Met do not normally issue warnings for more than about 4 days ahead.

[Mark Neal.]

re the 'storm' it is 10 days away and Met do not normally issue warnings for more than about 4 days ahead.

I think he was mentioning potential for Thursday low pressure system John?!

[Liam J]

re the 'storm' it is 10 days away and Met do not normally issue warnings for more than about 4 days ahead.

I was referring to this Thursday John, Ian did say we can't yet dismiss anything as it's a developing situation. Meto giving a 30% probability of extreme weather, Disruptive winds/sting jet. 

 

18z GFS(P) charts for 3pm Thursday.

 

[Catacol]

...Thankfully there's nothing negative showing for those of us who simply enjoy/marvel at 'The Weather', irrespective of it's complexion.

 :-) - that's true for sure Ian. But do the pros not even get a tiny bit tired of looking at the dominant westerly regime we tend to experience during winter? I've been fascinated by the weather since I was about 8 years old, but I cant get excited by a south westerly with its mild and damp overtones because we get so much of it. C'mon.... :-) - let us in on the pros who covet a bit of cold and snow, thunderstorms in summer or any of the other less frequent weather types!! Do you not have a favourite?

 

It's why I cant quite understand why some on here post so regularly and with such relish about mild south westerlies and zonal dross. Strikes me as a bit like being excited by sock shopping. Who can honestly say that they are interested in UK weather because they like to see/feel a westerly? Unless they are just on the wind up of course, which makes me sorry for them in a whole different way.... :-) No names of course...

[johnholmes]

I think he was mentioning potential for Thursday low pressure system John?!

 

yep dead right, age again and not paying close enough attention to what is being posted.

 

the Met Fax sequence this evening gives as good an idea as anyone can with the updates done this evening through 1-2 January, deepening quite a lot from mid Atlantic on its track to close by NW Scotland and into Norway. It does not look on those charts as a major deepener, not sure what the jet forecast is, will have a look as GFS and Met seem fairly close I think?

Looking at the 300mb flow and it does not look like a rapid deepening set up, there is a jet and the surface low does cross that maximum speed line but the trough ahead of the jet is not particularly diffluent (this is needed for rapid deepening)

diffluent simply means the air moves slower out of the jet than on its entry into the jet.

hope that helps?

I would imagine that tomorrow morning update will show any threat they feel necessary in a warning for the NW'ern quarter of Scotland, including the north of the Western Isles and the Northern Isles themselves. This with regard to shipping really, ferries, fishing etc, although the fishing is covered by the sea area forecasts.

from their High Seas outlook

Outlook for following 24 hours

From 2000 UTC on Wed 31 Dec

Violent storms expected in the far southwest of Denmark Strait with storms in Bailey, Southeast Iceland and West Northern Section and a risk of storms in Shannon and Rockall. Gales or severe gales expected in all other areas. 

link

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/#?tab=map

 

and again re Met Forecasters and their preferences-you would be quite surprised at some I am sure.

Edited December 30, 2014 by johnholmes

[radiohead]

The ones we can see are available as a freebie on the old ECM site, previously they were annotated with Cluster information and went out to 240 but at some point in last year this got stripped back to day 5. Magnifying glass ( Ctrl+) required for these.. if you don't have 140k euros spare..

48.gif

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/teasers/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!48!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2014123012!!/

 

 

Here's a tip to save 140k. On the postage stamps page, use the PDF download option. You can then zoom in as much as you like in Adobe Reader. Vector graphics will redraw on each zoom, you'll be able to see the isobars nice and clearly.

[fergieweather]

:-) - that's true for sure Ian. But do the pros not even get a tiny bit tired of looking at the dominant westerly regime we tend to experience during winter? I've been fascinated by the weather since I was about 8 years old, but I cant get excited by a south westerly with its mild and damp overtones because we get so much of it. C'mon.... :-) - let us in on the pros who covet a bit of cold and snow, thunderstorms in summer or any of the other less frequent weather types!! Do you not have a favourite?

It's why I cant quite understand why some on here post so regularly and with such relish about mild south westerlies and zonal dross. Strikes me as a bit like being excited by sock shopping. Who can honestly say that they are interested in UK weather because they like to see/feel a westerly? Unless they are just on the wind up of course, which makes me sorry for them in a whole different way.... :-) No names of course...

Well, this is relevant to models because as a longstanding colleague said to me just a few days ago: "It was easier in the old days with just one model to scrutinise. Now, we are victims of our own success, with each forecast failure made into a big deal by snipers. We are often guilty of examining too many models, too many competing solutions, and then terrifying ourselves over the validity of a forecast 14 days away when we haven't even yet nailed what a severe thunderstorm will do 14 minutes away."

Yes, we do have our preferences, but we work on assumption our viewers don't have the same. Or we should do. Equally, seven years in this job taught me long ago that searching models for a desired outcome into Disneyland timeframes is a soul-destroying endeavour. It's compounded yet further when driven by a snow myopia. I witnessed some on here last winter in virtual mental breakdown, which was an extraordinary state of affairs when 70mph winds were routinely crashing across Blighty in an astonishing season almost without prior comparison.

Edited December 30, 2014 by fergieweather

[Polar Maritime]

A much more disturbed PV showing on this evenings GFSP, With a stronger Arctic High and Heights pushing up to the East of the UK.

 

Edited December 30, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Betleyblizud]

I think you might be helped by reading what is cold, mild, average for each month of the year? Somewhere in net Wx is the Guide I gave some years ago on the strict Met O definitions for all temperatures for each meteorological season. If I remember where it is I will post a link.

Many thanks John, as always.I think the link will be of great benefit to a number of us on here!

[johnholmes]

the link you asked for

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/54858-met-office-temperature-definitions/

[Captain Shortwave]

A much more disturbed PV showing on this evenings GFSP, With a stronger Arctic High and Heights pushing up to the East of the UK.

 

How low will that Greenland low go. Jeez   around 920mb is the answer.

Nice to see that there was a "winner takes all" competition on the polar vortex and it appears Greenland won.

NEXT!!!

 

GFS op - no comment needed, westerly and at times stormy.

Edited December 30, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Jason M]

A much more disturbed PV showing on this evenings GFSP, With a stronger Arctic High and Heights pushing up to the East of the UK.

 

 

 

The GEFS have been playing around with this, but the outcome has always been the same with the heights collapsing and reinforcing heights to our south / southeast. Will be interesting to see if any in this set make more of it. Very unlikely, but how many times have people thought that over the years!

[seaside 60]

the link you asked for

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/54858-met-office-temperature-definitions/

Thanks for that...

Simple but usefull.

[Betleyblizud]

the link you asked for

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/54858-met-office-temperature-definitions/

Excellent. That is very helpful. Thanks again John.

[Polar Maritime]

More blizzards.. Maybe 

 

Edited December 30, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[DAVID SNOW]

Well, this is relevant to models because as a longstanding colleague said to me just a few days ago: "It was easier in the old days with just one model to scrutinise. Now, we are victims of our own success, with each forecast failure made into a big deal by snipers. We are often guilty of examining too many models, too many competing solutions, and then terrifying ourselves over the validity of a forecast 14 days away when we haven't even yet nailed what a severe thunderstorm will do 14 minutes away."

Yes, we do have our preferences, but we work on assumption our viewers don't have the same. Or we should do. Equally, seven years in this job taught me long ago that searching models for a desired outcome into Disneyland timeframes is a soul-destroying endeavour. It's compounded yet further when driven by a snow myopia. I witnessed some on here last winter in virtual mental breakdown, which was an extraordinary state of affairs when 70mph winds were routinely crashing across Blighty in an astonishing season almost without prior comparison.

 

 

 

 Why is it the forecasters on the beeb(these days) always say in winter "At least it will be mild" ? The last few days have been glorious,nothing  extreme, but some lovely clear and pretty frosty days.

 

Surely in winter " At least it will be mild" Would normally  mean wet grey and windy?

[Polar Maritime]

A much better looking PV to end the GFSP, Breaking up with shallow Heights inter-spread.

 

Edited December 30, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[fergieweather]

Why is it the forecasters on the beeb(these days) always say in winter "At least it will be mild" ? The last few days have been glorious,nothing extreme, but some lovely clear and pretty frosty days.

Surely in winter " At least it will be mild" Would normally mean wet grey and windy?

Because mild, wet, grey and windy is less troublesome than freezing cold, wet, grey and windy? I can't speak for others and it's really one for media thread. But as a broad rule of thumb, the frigid/snowy conditions sought as Narnia by some here are, lest us forget, a far cry from a fun yahoo for many trying to get to work/run businesses/travel/open schools/treat the infirm or the like. So 'mild' or 'bog-standard average' is routinely the forecast salvation of many average folk with zero desire to see or struggle through pronounced or disruptive cold weather... Edited December 30, 2014 by fergieweather

[fergieweather]

Because mild, wet, grey and windy is less troublesome than freezing cold, wet, grey and windy? I can't speak for others and it's really one for media thread. But as a broad rule of thumb, the frigid/snowy conditions sought as Narnia by some here are, lest us forget, a far cry from a fun yahoo for many trying to get to work/run businesses/travel/open schools/treat the infirm or the like. So 'mild' or 'bog-standard average' is routinely the forecast salvation of many average folk with zero desire to see or struggle through pronounced or disruptive cold weather...

(PS I've described last days on air as 'glorious late December fare' and had no complaints, whilst highlighting possible ice/fog hazards too)

BACK TO MODELS before a Mod says same thing...!!

Edited December 30, 2014 by fergieweather

[Nick F]

FWIW, just seen the 12z ECMWF EPS H500 mean and anomaly at T+360, thats jan 14th, for the northern hemisphere and its a case of as you were with deep vortex centred over Baffin and western Greenland with the strongly +ve AO and NAO.

Even Judah Cohen admits a level of uncertainty with the potential for the AO to go -ve after +ve spike in early Jan. Some back pedalling perhaps with the idea of a -AO forced by Eurasian snowcover, in fact I've read that there's data to suggest years of early high eurasian SCE in 70s and 80s that coincided with +AO+NAO winters.

But will the SSW come to the rescue? Cohen seems confident in his latest AO update that Lorenzo posted earlier today in Strat thread.

Edited December 30, 2014 by Nick F

[fergieweather]

But will the SSW come to the rescue? Cohen seems confident in his latest AO update that Lorenzo posted earlier today in Strat thread.

Hi Nick.. I can't see how any *reliable* bound of confidence can be openly expressed until we see (a) *firm* short lead-time evidence of ultimate SSW scope (typically 1 week lead in GloSea) plus (b) an unambiguous tropospheric response signal and the areal distribution/repercussions of such, even if only rather broadscale. Until a+b loom (albeit in phased fashion) into inescapable view, we still remain in Mystic Meg (=Mystic Madden?) territory, with a sizeable risk of it all Going South if overplayed, as some newsmedia will surely do now (SSW: The new 'WeatherBomb' buzz-phrase for D Express?). For sure, it looks very interesting but I've yet to see a percentage PROB outcome offered by any commentators...!

[Trom]

Well, this is relevant to models because as a longstanding colleague said to me just a few days ago: "It was easier in the old days with just one model to scrutinise. Now, we are victims of our own success, with each forecast failure made into a big deal by snipers. We are often guilty of examining too many models, too many competing solutions, and then terrifying ourselves over the validity of a forecast 14 days away when we haven't even yet nailed what a severe thunderstorm will do 14 minutes away."

Yes, we do have our preferences, but we work on assumption our viewers don't have the same. Or we should do. Equally, seven years in this job taught me long ago that searching models for a desired outcome into Disneyland timeframes is a soul-destroying endeavour. It's compounded yet further when driven by a snow myopia. I witnessed some on here last winter in virtual mental breakdown, which was an extraordinary state of affairs when 70mph winds were routinely crashing across Blighty in an astonishing season almost without prior comparison.

 

Yes last winters awesome low pressure features that seemed to batter us from December to Feb were really quite something.  Not cold but certainly extreme.  I'm a volatility lover - but easy to say when you don't live on a flood plane.

 

Models not showing much in terms of extremes at the moment.  Even the westerly procession for the next weeks looks to be fairly benign.   That stubborn azores high really needs to go to give us some excitement regarding potential.

[Nick F]

Hi Nick.. I can't see how any *reliable* bound of confidence can be openly expressed until we see (a) *firm* short lead-time evidence of ultimate SSW scope (typically 1 week lead in GloSea) plus (b) an unambiguous tropospheric response signal and the areal distribution/repercussions of such, even if only rather broadscale. Until a+b loom (albeit in phased fashion) into inescapable view, we still remain in Mystic Meg (=Mystic Madden?) territory, with a sizeable risk of it all Going South if overplayed, as some newsmedia will surely do now (SSW: The new 'WeatherBomb' buzz-phrase for D Express?). For sure, it looks very interesting but I've yet to see a percentage PROB outcome offered by any commentators...!

I agree, the predictability isn't great with SSWs, not like other atmospheric drivers such as the MJO, that can be predicted a better lead time and then response from the trop pattern. Trouble is, it's all or nothing with the stratosphere state, as I cant see any other drivers that will force a -AO/-NAO until perhaps later in Jan.

Edited December 31, 2014 by Nick F

[Trom]

the link you asked for

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/54858-met-office-temperature-definitions/

Thanks for that - What data collection period do they use for the averages (I assume they are moving averages) and are they available anywhere?  Thanks