Model Output Discussion; into 2015

[dragan]

:smiliz23: Sorry but thats not easy. If the temperature, especially at this time of year, is below average then it would be classed as cold. If snow is a possibility then where it falls would be classed as cold. Below average, I am sure, would be refered to by the Met office, as "cold for the time of year" You may be confusing cold with very cold or even extremley cold. To say there is "no hint of cold" when temperatures are below average in January is clearly misleading.

ok, we see things different, thanks

[nick sussex]

Which has been the most accurate model thus far this winter?

Well the ECM upto T144hrs still ranks as the top model, normally followed by the UKMO then the GFS. However at later timeframes the ECM seems to have often diverged from its majority of ensembles by pulling out a cold solution which hasn't verified.

 

All models go through good and bad patches however and especially with colder synoptics which are often more complex than say normal zonal patterns that's when you often see all the outputs reliability dropping.

[Milhouse]

The ECM mean has as broad a westerly flow as you are likely to see. Often mild in the south, colder air coming into northern areas at times. Cant really elaborate on it much more than that.

 

[fergieweather]

Not sure what time they come out but could anyone post the ECM postage stamps for Thursday into the Storm discussion thread please? I'd like to see if any of the members develop the depression more than the op. Thanks, link to thread below. 

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82129-new-years-day-possible-storm/page-3#entry3103224

For this Thurs? I can only see minority support (3 or 4 members at a cursory glance) that looked bothersome in strict sense re scope of deepening. Obviously, original form EC stamps/clusters etc can't be reproduced here I'm afraid (strict licence issues). Sorry.

[snowblizzard]

The ECM mean has as broad a westerly flow as you are likely to see. Often mild in the south, colder air coming into northern areas at times. Cant really elaborate on it much more than that.

 

All the time that damn Azores high stays in situ, things are not likely to change much!

It's a real winter spoiler for the UK!

[Betleyblizud]

ok, we see things different, thanks

No worries. The lack of rationale or reasoning to support your viewpoint shows its time to move on. Cheers

[fergieweather]

Unimpressive mean waiting Strat to kick in

If indeed it even does. Bear in mind that albeit GloSea5 (like EC) has repeated the stratospheric warming signal over successive runs (albeit GloSea5 for a longer lead period, with initial signs many weeks ago pointing at this particular period), the net result tropospherically remains very low confidence (despite theoretically favourable QBO assist) but in any event, not one expected to be manifested until later Jan. Medium range output presently remains very much in keeping with consensus view, i.e. a broadly westerly and periodically perhaps stormy story lasting well into January, albeit with uncertain timing of eventual waning.

[Liam J]

For this Thurs? I can only see minority support (3 or 4 members at a cursory glance) that looked bothersome in strict sense re scope of deepening. Obviously, original form EC stamps/clusters etc can't be reproduced here I'm afraid (strict licence issues). Sorry.

Thanks Ian, I've seen the 12z EPS members and they offer little/no support to some other model guidance which is showing rapid cyclogenesis taking place as the depression crosses the north. 

[bluearmy]

The ECM mean has as broad a westerly flow as you are likely to see. Often mild in the south, colder air coming into northern areas at times. Cant really elaborate on it much more than that.

 

 

 

the anomoly and mean at day 10 does show an atlantic ridge upcoming. alas, the extended ensembles show it to be a toppler with the flat pattern returning quickly. of course, at this time of year wth some pretty low uppers upstream, any toppler could provide interest. i guess we must beware the ecm op overdoing the ridge during the next few days which will no doubt bring a smile to the forum followed by despair as it becomes a two day toppler! (given the background strat issue, we will be torn between mistrust of the ecm op and a desire to connect the strat warming in the greeny locale with an appearing ridge there). oh dear. i sense a headache coming on ...........

[bluearmy]

Blimey Fergie its a New year in 36 hours was hoping for some positives

 

thats really good news from ian. it backs up the ecm evolution and provides some optimism going forward. 

[fergieweather]

Thanks Ian, I've seen the 12z EPS members and they offer little/no support to some other model guidance which is showing rapid cyclogenesis taking place as the depression crosses the north.

Yes but we can't yet be too clever/deterministic. A developmental situation, certainly, but with oscillating potential from last 2-3 runs. Currently, Exeter offer 30% PROB of the version bringing disruptive winds/sting jet potential.

[fergieweather]

Blimey Fergie its a New year in 36 hours was hoping for some positives

...Thankfully there's nothing negative showing for those of us who simply enjoy/marvel at 'The Weather', irrespective of it's complexion.

[lorenzo]

For this Thurs? I can only see minority support (3 or 4 members at a cursory glance) that looked bothersome in strict sense re scope of deepening. Obviously, original form EC stamps/clusters etc can't be reproduced here I'm afraid (strict licence issues). Sorry.

 

The ones we can see are available as a freebie on the old ECM site, previously they were annotated with Cluster information and went out to 240 but at some point in last year this got stripped back to day 5. Magnifying glass ( Ctrl+) required for these.. if you don't have 140k euros spare..

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/teasers/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!48!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2014123012!!/

 

If indeed it even does. Bear in mind that albeit GloSea5 (like EC) has repeated the stratospheric warming signal over successive runs (albeit GloSea5 for a longer lead period, with initial signs many weeks ago pointing at this particular period), the net result tropospherically remains very low confidence (despite theoretically favourable QBO assist) but in any event, not one expected to be manifested until later Jan. Medium range output presently remains very much in keeping with consensus view, i.e. a broadly westerly and periodically perhaps stormy story lasting well into January, albeit with uncertain timing of eventual waning.

 

Re: response to SSW would be interesting to know if Glosea signals or builds in instant tropospheric response along with lagged response from Midwinter warming > SSW. Thinking here of where a complete split kills the jet dead in it's tracks and whether previous Glosea SSW predictions informed the mid range output. As far as warming events go this is not a by the book event that is easy to read, as alluded to already with W1, W2 events cascading across the stratosphere and different levels and time frames.

[bluearmy]

Any time scale BA for trop charts to show it?...Sorry Ba how does it? Confused dot com

 

cant help you with a prediction as to when a response to an event which isnt yet consistently modelled will show!  if glosea wasnt seeing a decent warming then i would be concerned that the ecm output was going to downgrade to something akin to the gfs op. the fact that the met office premier strat model picks up the warming (and has done for a long while) should give us confidence in it and its potential ramifications. 

[Barry12]

...Thankfully there's nothing negative showing for those of us who simply enjoy/marvel at 'The Weather', irrespective of it's complexion.

 

How can you enjoy/marvel at grey cloud and rain!?

[Dancerwithwings]

How can you enjoy/marvel at grey cloud and rain!?

Unless you are a mushroom!

[Mokidugway]

It's the UK weather ,always in flux and there's always something to talk about ...

[Barry12]

Eh Ian's a meteorologist so he loves the weather he doesn't get hung up on cold like I want lol...bet he has a preference in Winter though hehe

 

A lot of meteorologist/weather forecasters don't seem to like cold and snow, which I find very odd!

 

anyway back on topic, I think in a weeks time we will be looking at interesting charts, big warming forecast in the stratosphere over Greenland, this should make an impact and get a better NH profile.

Edited December 30, 2014 by Barry95

[phil nw.]

Yep back to model discussion please guys.

 

Thank you.

[TonyH]

A lot of meteorologist/weather forecasters don't seem to like cold and snow, which I find very odd!

 

anyway back on topic, I think in a weeks time we will be looking at interesting charts, big warming forecast in the stratosphere over Greenland, this should make an impact and get a better NH profile.

Perhaps they are more rounded people than us weather freaks  :w00t:

[Liam J]

Yes but we can't yet be too clever/deterministic. A developmental situation, certainly, but with oscillating potential from last 2-3 runs. Currently, Exeter offer 30% PROB of the version bringing disruptive winds/sting jet potential.

Thanks for that bit of insight, I expect the Met will be watching this one closely. Their in house models must be showing some interesting looking charts! Are warnings likely to be released ahead of Thursday? Or can you not divulge that information?

[bluearmy]

Thanks for that bit of insight, I expect the Met will be watching this one closely. Their in house models must be showing some interesting looking charts! Are warnings likely to be released ahead of Thursday? Or can you not divulge that information?

I thought Ian said Thursday looked no problem at the moment ??.

[johnholmes]

A lot of meteorologist/weather forecasters don't seem to like cold and snow, which I find very odd!

 

anyway back on topic, I think in a weeks time we will be looking at interesting charts, big warming forecast in the stratosphere over Greenland, this should make an impact and get a better NH profile.

 

You might be surprised to know just who likes cold and snow, at least in moderation, one or two names might raise eyebrows on here!

[johnholmes]

How can you enjoy/marvel at grey cloud and rain!?

 

It;s called being a weather fan rather than a cold and snow only fan. Wind, gales, snow, frost, sun, thunder, warmth, cold all have their own attraction to me.

[johnholmes]

:smiliz23: Sorry but thats not easy. If the temperature, especially at this time of year, is below average then it would be classed as cold. If snow is a possibility then where it falls would be classed as cold. Below average, I am sure, would be refered to by the Met office, as "cold for the time of year" You may be confusing cold with very cold or even extremley cold. To say there is "no hint of cold" when temperatures are below average in January is clearly misleading.

 

I think you might be helped by reading what is cold, mild, average for each month of the year? Somewhere in net Wx is the Guide I gave some years ago on the strict Met O definitions for all temperatures for each meteorological season. If I remember where it is I will post a link.