Model Output Discussion; into 2015

[johnholmes]

 

Not copied but IF only some folk on here could adopt the more realistic approach? Fine to enjoy the ups and downs but then some having misread or misunderstood what the models showed or a posters' interpretations of a model get a bit angry and a few then resort to personal digs. All realistic posters can do I suppose is to continue to post their view of a model illustrated with charts and explain why they feel such and such will occur. My preference as everyone knows for 6 days and beyond is the anomaly type (but using anything that is available in the same time scale). I hope I managed to persuade some doubters yesterday that they did pretty well 6-7 days ahead of Christmas for the change in temperature levels-or maybe some still do not believe this?

[The Eagle]

Why? Looks flat zonal on both.

 

I wouldn't quite agree with that. The GFS is the train for sure. UKMO again consistent with the 00z building heights north at 120 hrs. At 144 high pressure is building in again.

Edited December 29, 2014 by The Eagle

[seabreeze86]

 Differences between the UKMO and the GFS at 120 hours

 

The GFS very flat

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014122912/gfsnh-0-120.png?12

 

The UKMO although no brilliant by any stretch of the imagination is slightly more amplified so less unsettled.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014122912/UN120-21.GIF?29-17

[johnholmes]

I think most members are computer savy enough to look at the models for themselves without relying on

other menbers to spoonfeed every frame to them.

 

It was NOT directed at such folk blizzard, as it clearly states the post is for newcomers who judging by posts in here and the moan/rant thread do get very confused, I'm simply trying to help them out, sorry if this offends you.

[Frosty.]

I'm sorry you missed out, you must feel quite let down by this winter so far.

No more than the other 99.99999 percent on here. :-)

[TwisterGirl81]

Really? well considering there were supposed to be nationwide gales, they ended up much less of a deal. Just looking ahead, there is a risk of something colder and more settled by the end of January but confidence is low. In the meantime we will have mild wet and windy spells interspersed with colder showery conditions with snow on hills and night frosts during quieter intervals..so really it's the same as we started winter with for the foreseeable future.

 

 

Looking ahead?  Hun have you seen the GFS & GFS P, if it verifies it would be like the Burns Day Storm or 1987 storm all over again on 9th January 2015 in the south and quite a few other potent sotrms brewing too....

 

There's zomal then there's a full on assault!!!

[bluearmy]

Differences between the UKMO and the GFS at 120 hours

The GFS very flat

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014122912/gfsnh-0-120.png?12

The UKMO although no brilliant by any stretch of the imagination is slightly more amplified so less unsettled.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014122912/UN120-21.GIF?29-17

The Gfs also quite amplified to our East at day 8. Is the split vortex causing modelling issues? Even if it isn't, those ridges chucked to our North can be useful a few days later

Sadly, low res on the op comes at a bad time in the evolution

Edited December 29, 2014 by bluearmy

[MR EXTREMES]

to be fair the ukmo is dry sunny so theres one good thing.

but as you can see the wave of heights to our south sinks then replaced repeated like this for a fair while now.

and is expected to continue theres also a split in the vortex but it is not favoured our side of the world.

 

so the ukmo at least has settled perhaps frost still a feature fog looks likely to but dry broadly across the uk.

[Jason M]

GFS opp pushes ridge into Scandinavia.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=180&mode=0

 

Unlikely on this run to amount to much but of some interest nonetheless.

[John Badrick]

It was very windy down south

Wasn't that windy in cornwall..

[blizzard81]

It was NOT directed at such folk blizzard, as it clearly states the post is for newcomers who judging by posts in here and the moan/rant thread do get very confused, I'm simply trying to help them out, sorry if this offends you.

No offence at all John. It's like education. If people do not learn for themselves then they will not progress.

That's the point I was trying to get across.

[nick sussex]

The GFS , GFS P and UKMO are all different upstream at T144hrs which hardly inspires much confidence as to which solution is correct.

 

Given a choice I'd rather the UKMO verified as that looks drier and colder with some frosty nights.

[johnholmes]

A simple way perhaps for how cold/mild/average anyones' temperature is, take the 15z GFS run, each time if you like out to 192h, bit beyond what is usually referred to as reliable time frame but never mind.

My average Maximum T is about 7C (7.3) and perhaps a shade higher than it should be, thanks to my very enclosed garedn.

Anyway, the 12z GFS shows the following out to next Tuesday

1,3,9,6,4,8,8,7

So 4 below, 3 above and one dead on average.

Wonder what the values will turn out to be.

Easy for any new folk to try this and see how accurate or not the model is for you. Then take it a stage further, try it for wind speed, direction, rainfall etc.

It is, as a weather enthusiast, very enjoyable-honest.

[seabreeze86]

The Gfs also quite amplified to our East at day 8. Is the split vortex causing modelling issues? Even if it isn't, those ridges chucked to our North can be useful a few days later

Sadly, low res on the op comes at a bad time in the evolution

Yes the normal GFS starts to get interesting towards the end of the high resolution. Whenever there are highs over the pole models do struggle in my opinion. Will be interesting to see what path the ECM takes later this evening.

[blizzard81]

The GFS , GFS P and UKMO are all different upstream at T144hrs which hardly inspires much confidence as to which solution is correct.

 

Given a choice I'd rather the UKMO verified as that looks drier and colder with some frosty nights.

I for one hope the UKMO verifies. Much better than wind and rain that we seem to get all year round these days.

I have also noticed that in winters past (especially classic ones!) an anticyconic spell in Jan very often precludes

a very cold spell, more often from the east (my favourite cold spell direction)

[John Badrick]

Going by the experts there is no sign of a marked pattern change for another month at least. When you look at the models you can see the same reloading pattern we have had since winter began. However, we can't rule out the odd colder blip, similar to what we have now.

Zonal is just the model default pattern, everything goes to default before a pattern change...ie SSW!!!! So no need to panic

[Jason M]

GFS opp is textbook zonal right out to the end. Its one of those GFS specials where if you ran it forward to April it would still show exactly the same thing

 

Doesn't mean it will be right though and it will be interesting to see if the GEFS make anything of the attempt at ridging around the 180 hour mark. GFS(P) looks like going the same way and is actually worse than the opp run until the opp hits low res at 192.

 

So far METO the best tonight.

[dragan]

I got pure lambasted earlier for saying there is no pattern change in sight. To me once again, the signals are all westerly/zonal based weather

[ciel]

No offence at all John. It's like education. If people do not learn for themselves then they will not progress.

That's the point I was trying to get across.

 

Being uneducated regarding weather sciences ( although not uneducated in certain other regards), I find John's advices very helpful as basic starting points in understanding the models. In order to progress, it is necessary to have a framework on which to grow the knowledge.

[Paul_1978]

Until then, zonal until around mid January.

Wow, high confidence in the next 2+ weeks there MS..,,

:-/

[karyo]

GFS opp is textbook zonal right out to the end. Its one of those GFS specials where if you ran it forward to April it would still show exactly the same thing

 

Doesn't mean it will be right though and it will be interesting to see if the GEFS make anything of the attempt at ridging around the 180 hour mark. GFS(P) looks like going the same way and is actually worse than the opp run until the opp hits low res at 192.

 

So far METO the best tonight.

Agreed, but the GFS operational has upgraded the stratospheric warming over the Atlantic which is nice to see. 

[blizzard81]

I got pure lambasted earlier for saying there is no pattern change in sight. To me once again, the signals are all westerly/zonal based weather

Don't ever be afraid to post what you think. I think the mods do a great job on here but maybe a piece of

advice to them would be to reassure people more that they shouldn't be afraid to post their thoughts on the models.

Just saying, as they say

[Jason M]

Wow, high confidence in the next 2+ weeks there MS..,,

:-/

 

I'm guessing that as I type you are putting together a post to explain why he might be wrong. Just to start things off and help you along the way, see below for a selection of charts from GFS FI.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=120&mode=0

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=168&mode=0

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=300&mode=0

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0

 

oh, just to help you a bit further, see the chart below from the GFS(P)

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=300&mode=0&runpara=1

Edited December 29, 2014 by Jason M

[blizzard81]

Being uneducated regarding weather sciences ( although not uneducated in certain other regards), I find John's advices very helpful as basic starting points in understanding the models. In order to progress, it is necessary to have a framework on which to grow the knowledge.

Point taken but you have totally misunderstood my post.

[Jason M]

Agreed, but the GFS operational has upgraded the stratospheric warming over the Atlantic which is nice to see. 

 

I tend not to put too much stall in the opp runs tbh until I see the GEFS set that goes alongside it, but that would be good to see albeit these warming seem to be acting strongly against us at the moment. The Opp tonight just looks like one of those runs where GFS loses its way and goes into zonal autopilot. Ironically its probably right, but more through luck than judgement.