Model Output Discussion; into 2015

[dragan]

Surely you are on the wind up mate with this post?

So you are writing off January and you have also teleported into the future to tell me we might get a continental breeze sometime in late Feb or March.

I am actually losing the will to live after reading some of the posts in this thread within the past couple of hours.

With regards to Feb/March, I just feel with the curent outlook it will be a while before any continental feed will happen. I'm not writing off January, but I believe my assessment of it is closer than some of the fantasists, whose posts seem to get much praise, even though time and time again they are totally off the mark regarding cold.

[bluearmy]

Very little to take for coldies on the ECM 12z extended ens. No sign of the euro height anomolys retreating to a favourable position. No sign of the Atlantic trough digging far enough south. Of course we can't see any clusters but there seems little encouragement from the mean which there was on the 00z suite.

Would be nice to see the momentum headed in the opposite direction but afraid it isn't at the moment. Given that the ECM ens go to the top of the strat I think coldies can move onto the morning output to find some straws.

[Paul_1978]

the tick, tock you can here in the background is winter slipping away.

Andy

It's 28th December - 33% of winter gone, but **66% still to go**, including the whole of Jan and Feb which are usually the most fruitful for cold/snowy winter weather.

[Smiler1709]

I'm losing the will to live with some posts, I'm having a couple of days off from the models otherwise I will end up sticking my head in the oven lol.

Just a quick thank u to the informative posters who try to keep the rest of us sane

[bluearmy]

Gibbys post shows us that post day 7, we should be looking more at the Indian model than the gfs! (Which is a derivative of the gfs but currently verifying better!)

Edited December 28, 2014 by Polar Maritime
To remove deleted quote.

[blizzard81]

Apologies for the late reply to this post but I think the critsicism of ECM on here as the bad guy is not borne from facts. The ECM model flies the flag above all others for many of the months past and the most recent set of verification Statistics once more support that view. Here's the most recent verification stats to prove it. Note the longer the time period the more reliable the ECM over the other models becomes. This is why I use it to compile my longer term forecasts within my website.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 3 Day

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 5 Day

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png  8 Day

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png 10 Day

I am not doubting it's top billing in terms of verification. I never contradicted that fact. What I highlighted was this particular model's obvious flaw with regards to heights in the mid north atlantic. This bias desperately needs to be fixed.

[Barry12]

Apologies for the late reply to this post but I think the critsicism of ECM on here as the bad guy is not borne from facts. The ECM model flies the flag above all others for many of the months past and the most recent set of verification Statistics once more support that view. Here's the most recent verification stats to prove it. Note the longer the time period the more reliable the ECM over the other models becomes. This is why I use it to compile my longer term forecasts within my website.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 3 Day

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 5 Day

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png  8 Day

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png 10 Day

 

There's some nonsense posts about the ECM from some members, but those stats prove the ECM is the best model up to day 10.

[Polar Maritime]

Ok, Can we please have some order and discuss what the Models are actually showing by backing post's up with charts. Quit the unpleasant tone from some, Accept others opinions and be friendly/polite. We are only 28 days into Winter.. 

 

Thanks.

Edited December 28, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[stewfox]

With regards to Feb/March, I just feel with the curent outlook it will be a while before any continental feed will happen. I'm not writing off January, but I believe my assessment of it is closer than some of the fantasists, whose posts seem to get much praise, even though time and time again they are totally off the mark regarding cold.

With emotions running high.

I just think folk would appreciate supporting

charts for Jan Feb and March rather then a feeling. That way it makes an assessment more helpful and couldn't be interpreted

as anything else.

[MidnightSnow]

20th January 1991 : not looking great is it?

 

 

 

Roll forward two and a half weeks to 7th February 1991 - a bit better!!

 

 

My point? Not saying it will happen this year but puts into perspective how things can turn around fairly quickly in the world of weather........

This is the best post I've seen today

[Summer Sun]

Away from the northern / Scottish hills the ECM ens isn't the best for snow it has to be said

 

 

The highest ground in the north should see some snow at times but for lower levels its likely to be just rain

 

 

 

[Bristawl Si]

I love the posts from Tamara, Steve Murr, TEITS, Chiono, Phil and a few others - they always seem to give hope for great synoptics to, one day, deliver some fab cold and snow BUT............

for almost 100% reliability i take most notice of Big John Holmes - those anomaly charts he uses seem to be the best guidance. Plus......

the Meto.

For general trends, so far, this Winter the Meto have been pretty much spot on.

This guidance will somewhat limit emotional ups and downs.

A winter most of us crave for *may* truly start from mid-January.

PM incursions delivering cold rain (IMBY) just dont cut it, for me, despite the comparision to last Winter.

Even down here we would normally have seen snow, by now, even if it was just fleeting - that would be the hallmark of an average Winter.

So far OUR winter has been pants.

Edited December 28, 2014 by Bristle boy

[Catacol]

Another trend for this winter - always 10 days away! This started at the beginning of Dec when mid Dec was touted as

the beginning of our winter proper. Well, we are now at the end of Dec and we are still saying 10 days away.

Not a good trend at all!

 

Except that this time around the forecast is what we expected to happen...

[mulzy]

Not wall to wall zonality by any stretch of the imagination according to the GFS 12z. FI I know but writing winter off at this juncture is daft imo. Loads of twists and turns to come.

 

gfs-0-192.png

 

gfs-0-252.png

 

gfs-0-384.png

I haven't seen any posts writing off winter?  Where are they?

 

Back to the models - here are the De Bilt ECM Ensembles.

 

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php?run=12

 

Pretty average, if not above average temperatures.

Edited December 28, 2014 by mulzy

[Les Penniston]

Well this will be my 11th winter of model watching never say to much but do plenty of reading and unfortunately some never learn and want to write a winter off before it starts, whatever the models show is based on computers and data, some years a cold spell develops out of nothing and they are probably the best ones rather than a raging easterly showing for days to be let down at the last minute.

 

The weather whatever should be enjoyed, the models are a guide only and instead of posting because we are not getting what we want is a bit pointless, we have a good two and a half months to enjoy so some should sit back and enjoy. January and February are to me the best months for cold and snow so i will just see what we get, if nothing then theres next winter of model watching.

 

Regards

Les

[J10]

"The potential for a blockbuster winter has diminished and of course if it happens in late January we still could have a good event but that is not a given if we miss the first shot" The Winter of 1947 didn't get going until the end of January and we all know how that turned out IDO. I think the best thing to stop aggro in this forum would be an ignore button were we wouldn't even see certain posters posts. Maybe this is already available but I'm new and haven't noticed it as of yet.

 

There is an ignore option.

 

Click on Settings and Select Ignore Preference and you can ignore any poster you wish to.

[dragan]

This is a decent pm shot for cold lovers. Sleet and wet snow even for many lower elevations I guess. Scottish mountains should do well in regards to snowfall.

[DAVID SNOW]

Well this will be my 11th winter of model watching never say to much but do plenty of reading and unfortunately some never learn and want to write a winter off before it starts, whatever the models show is based on computers and data, some years a cold spell develops out of nothing and they are probably the best ones rather than a raging easterly showing for days to be let down at the last minute.

 

The weather whatever should be enjoyed, the models are a guide only and instead of posting because we are not getting what we want is a bit pointless, we have a good two and a half months to enjoy so some should sit back and enjoy. January and February are to me the best months for cold and snow so i will just see what we get, if nothing then theres next winter of model watching.

 

Regards

Les

 

Nice to see you posting Les.

 Regards David.

Edited December 28, 2014 by DAVID SNOW

[Man With Beard]

I love the posts from Tamara, Steve Murr, TEITS, Chiono, Phil and a few others - they always seem to give hope for great synoptics to, one day, deliver some fab cold and snow BUT............

for almost 100% reliability i take most notice of Big John Holmes - those anomaly charts he uses seem to be the best guidance. Plus......

the Meto.

For general trends, so far, this Winter the Meto have been pretty much spot on.

This guidance will somewhat limit emotional ups and downs.

A winter most of us crave for *may* truly start from mid-January.

PM incursions delivering cold rain (IMBY) just dont cut it, for me, despite the comparision to last Winter.

Even down here we would normally have seen snow, by now, even if it was just fleeting - that would be the hallmark of an average Winter.

So far OUR winter has been pants.

 

I am really pleased we have John Holmes posting on this forum, level-headed and full of weather wisdom.

However, having followed the NOAA anomaly charts avidly this year (and found them to pretty good in the summer), the last two weeks have got me concerned - it is able to cope with major pattern changes? Look at the following, the date produced and the forecast period - I have to say, we know that these charts are wrong / going to be wrong for our area of the globe - Royal.

[Long haul to mild]

I haven't seen any posts writing off winter?  Where are they?

 

Back to the models - here are the De Bilt ECM Ensembles.

 

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php?run=12

 

Pretty average, if not above average temperatures.

Oh, the winter's over posts have been here believe me, but one of the Mods mentioned the other day that such posts would be removed from this thread as the crystal ball gazing they indulge in clearly does not relate to model output. Therefore they tend to disappear!

Those deBilt Ensembles had some serious cold options in there only 24 hours ago which prompted talk of cold spells. The absence of any such indicators tonight is typical of the volatility of the model output at present.

[johnholmes]

I am not doubting it's top billing in terms of verification. I never contradicted that fact. What I highlighted was this particular model's obvious flaw with regards to heights in the mid north atlantic. This bias desperately needs to be fixed.

 

But the question has to be asked is what you say true or a perception you and some others have about it. As Gibby posts the 10 days statistics, like the 6 day ones show it clearly in the lead even over the revamped GFS. That revamp was partly fed by guidance from ECMWF staff trying to get the GFS model to give better results. I find it hard to believe, until folk show me the predicted AND then the actual chart that ECMWF is as bad as some say. How can that be when the northern hemisphere statistics show otherwise. Do you feel it is west or east of the UK? Please show me actual instances.

I am not trying to cause a row but as a meteorologist and a bloke with a science training I do need factual evidence. So far the only charts I have seen are predicted charts which then folk do not remember when we get to T+00, much as I asked earlier today.

If I had time I would do just the same as I did with the anomaly charts, collect the data, post them for all to see, then comment how well or badly I felt they had been. I did this for 3 years so my view on them is a scientific one.

Let us have a discussion please but no name calling.

[Long haul to mild]

There is an ignore option.

 

Click on Settings and Select Ignore Preference and you can ignore any poster you wish to.

Yes, I use it a fair bit, it's just a pity that you still get to see the ignored posts when others quote them in replies.

[Timmytour]

is it worth reminding folk saying 1/3 of winter has gone that the coldest month we've had since THAT Dec 2010 was a March?

The models don't seem great looking forward that's true at the moment....but, aside from 62-63, i think we'd be hard-pushed to name any notably cold winter in which we did not experience periods of long drawn south-westerlys. And no doubt even for some of the special winters we can think of, if models had been around at that time they would have had periods of depressing us with their outlooks.

Hope never hurt anyone and giving up too early is just a short cut to being miserable! The models will show what they show and I appreciate both the realists who tell it like it is and and the dreamers who tell it how it could be with their plausible explanations. Personally I am fascinated to see whether a statistical observation made about August and Septembers CETs and ensuing winters stands good for this ensuing winter. That means i have to have patience...

[Long haul to mild]

With regards to Feb/March, I just feel with the curent outlook it will be a while before any continental feed will happen. I'm not writing off January, but I believe my assessment of it is closer than some of the fantasists, whose posts seem to get much praise, even though time and time again they are totally off the mark regarding cold.

You may well be right in your prediction but calling for zonal conditions in the British Isles is a bit like saying that Chelsea have a good chance of winning the League, therefore for me there is very little kudos attached to it!

Edited December 28, 2014 by Long haul to mild

[bobbydog]

well....

i did pop in to ask some opinions regarding the ECM at day 9 and 10. however, reading through the last couple of pages i doubt anyone is either in a frame of mind or sensible enough to give a reasonable answer.

 

here's the charts anyway-

 

 

 

the clue is the mid atlantic movement of a "shortwave". looks odd to me.

 

argue erm  discuss at your leisure....