Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion; into 2015


martthefart

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

just had a look into fantasy  world  it  could   go  cold  or   mild  not sure they know  at the moment!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Output seems to be continuing to trend toward some form of Atlantic ridging day 6/7. If it can develop enough it might be enough to disrupt low pressure to the West of the UK.

 

gfsnh-0-162.png?12

 

Which in turn could lead to stronger ridge forming behind. All a bit hopeful and crystal ball at the moment though.

Edited by Mucka
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

It's pretty close. At T+144 and above all models struggle but to state that none of the ECM high pressure forecasts at 8-10 days have verified is incorrect. In many years of model watching I have seen nothing to suggest that GFS, GEM or JMA are any better at accurately predicting blocks and their position. 

 

I totally agree, in my view there is a lot of hearsay and rarely anything in terms of charts for predicts at 10 days and the actual at  day 0 to back this up. If I had the time I would log each such call and keep charts to see how correct they were. I know the northern hemisphere statistics can skew things but I do find it very hard to believe that a model that has for years, month after month, outscored the others at day 6 can be so far out by day 10. Anyone willing to do this so we can really see how true these comments are? It does of course need to be done daily a bit like my check on 500mb anomaly charts over a 3 year period!

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Massive movement towards the EC from the GFS OPS upto T168. Better shaped WAA over the pacific side, with better arctic flow and positioning, knock on effect of more amplification on ourside of the planet. Will be interesting to see where this goes t T240 and beyond......don't consider it an outlier no matter what it shows imho.

Also interesting 10mb temp changes from the previous run in the same time frame.

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold! Winter :)
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL

Quick learning question from me if thats OK. Why does the polar vortex ALWAYS seem to be 'attracted' to Greenland? It appears every chance it gets it cant wait to get sucked back over there. Its so frustrating!!!!

 

GFS run tonight for example, at T192 its diminishing so im thinking good stuff, and then soon after, BANG, it all gets sucked back together again in a big strong black blob. Worst place as we know.

 

I do realise im quoting FI and low res but hoping it helps to show where im coming from.

 

Is it attracted to Greenland as its so high up and very cold? Obviously the whole Arctic is very cold in the winter so is Greenland the coldest bit? Id love to know why theres a love affair between the two.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
To be honest up to D12 and there was nothing of interest on the GEFS, only one member offering respite, with a token UK transient high. I do not see the GFS going more amplified at the moment and suspect ECM will move towards GFS later. The GEM D12 ensembles very similar to the GEFS so at the moment I am not seeing any pattern change

 

Looks like the GFS has moved towards the ECM tonight with more amplification. The GEFS have been useless so far this winter, especially from day 7 onwards. I suppose this is why the Met Office don't take the GFS into account when making there forecasts.

Edited by Barry95
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl

i hope the GFS paraelle is wrong with its outputs it has shown this storm for the past few runs now one to watch for sure its a very long road to cold with charts like this 

 

gfs-0-240.png?12

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: S East Wales
  • Location: S East Wales

i hope the GFS paraelle is wrong with its outputs it has shown this storm for the past few runs now one to watch for sure its a very long road to cold with charts like this 

 

gfs-0-240.png?12

What would this bring if it did verify ?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: frogmore south devon
  • Location: frogmore south devon

i hope the GFS paraelle is wrong with its outputs it has shown this storm for the past few runs now one to watch for sure its a very long road to cold with charts like this 

 

gfs-0-240.png?12

that is so far in the future you could put anything on there.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl

What would this bring if it did verify ?

plenty of wind and rain and would take another 4-5 days to shift no good 

Edited by igloo
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

All we need to do is get this chart to say...+120h, and everyone would be buried in snow. 

gfsnh-0-384.png?12

Edited by PerfectStorm
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

The UKMO has less amplification towards Greenland at 144hrs compared to it's 00z run.

I predict the ECM will go the same way tonight. Just too much energy over north east Canada

at the moment. That is the one similarity between this winter and last but I suppose one could

argue that most of our winter's are ruined by that intense energy. A look through the archives

and everyone could see this.

Edited by blizzard81
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

A cool Wintry look to the GFSP with plenty of Pm blast's, With storms and surprises from the N/W, Further into the run and the PV is in shatters. Some very interesting output to come over the coming days.

 

gfsnh-0-384.png?12

Edited by Polar Maritime
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

GFS P snow charts suggesting some snow for parts of the south and Scotland next weekend

 

144-780PUK.GIF?28-12168-780PUK.GIF?28-12

 

Beyond the weekend some snow is still on show for various parts of the UK with NW Scotland doing particularly well

 

210-780PUK.GIF?28-12

 

GFS P does like to produce a rude chart now and then on these snow depth charts.........

Edited by Summer Sun
  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

Isn't that a toppler Atlantic Ridge. Not sure I would classify that as a block? But I maybe wrong. The day before it was showing:

 

attachicon.gifECM1-240 (4).gif

 

A block is a block whether it topples or not. Of course you can find runs at T168 that didnt verify - so posting an image of one doesnt change the reality - which is that all models struggle at that range, but all op runs will occasionally get it right. ECM verifies better than most models, hence why the MetO value it above most others, and to say that ECM has failed every time this winter is incorrect.

Edited by Catacol_Highlander
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 12z operation run turns into a wild and wintry ride with frequent incursions of polar maritime air bringing wintry showers and night frosts but also some stormy conditions with bouts of very wet and windy weather but quite wintry at times,especially in the north.

post-4783-0-32863200-1419787214_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-86852800-1419787232_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-54502400-1419787269_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-93942400-1419787303_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-25715100-1419787332_thumb.pn

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow

Quick learning question from me if thats OK. Why does the polar vortex ALWAYS seem to be 'attracted' to Greenland? It appears every chance it gets it cant wait to get sucked back over there. Its so frustrating!!!!

 

GFS run tonight for example, at T192 its diminishing so im thinking good stuff, and then soon after, BANG, it all gets sucked back together again in a big strong black blob. Worst place as we know.

 

I do realise im quoting FI and low res but hoping it helps to show where im coming from.

 

Is it attracted to Greenland as its so high up and very cold? Obviously the whole Arctic is very cold in the winter so is Greenland the coldest bit? Id love to know why theres a love affair between the two.

The arctic polar vortex is a semi-permanent weather feature that just happens to have its center near Baffin Island and Siberia. I'm not sure why it is baffin Island though, an interesting question. Does anyone else know why Baffin Island is home to the polar vortex on our side of the pole?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

A very wild GFS run and frequent snow, even to lower levels, even into the south, particularly if you look at thicknesses. Nobody should have too many complaints about the runs really.

I like the METO T144 personally, its more amplifed  upstream. Something that all the models are pushing atm,

If we keep an eye on the trends then the models are generally showing.

- More amplification up stream

- Quicker movement of the PV and Deep cold out of the US

- More arctic ridging

- Better negative tilt on the exit of the US

 

A small change to allow a better ridge from the exit of the US, a small amount of WAA near greenland and you get ridging into greenland.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs in particular looks like it's cranking up to Chuck some weather bombs our way with explosive cyclogenesis as we saw recently, a really potent mix of wintry weather with spells of heavy rain, sleet and snow and severe gales to storm force winds at times but also a few calmer frosty interludes.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

The Gfs 12z operation run turns into a wild and wintry ride with frequent incursions of polar maritime air bringing wintry showers and night frosts but also some stormy conditions with bouts of very wet and windy weather but quite wintry at times,especially in the north.

I think most on here are looking for something MUCH better than that run with regards to cold.

Lets hope for some better runs in the next few days. Looking for the warming strat to come into

play. Crucial time coming up for coldies.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

The Gfs in particular looks like it's cranking up to Chuck some weather bombs our way with explosive cyclogenesis as we saw recently, a really potent mix of wintry weather with spells of heavy rain, sleet and snow and severe gales to storm force winds at times but also a few calmer frosty interludes.

Not my type of winter at all. The winters of the last 20 years plus have been dominated by this dross.

I think the main culprit is the warming of the oceans in recent decades.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...