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Boxing Day Snow Event Thoughts And Reports.


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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

I will be too low as usual, seems north of my location, more to Stockport eastwards, Nick I managed snow out of a marginal event on 11th Feb last winter, but you were not in Cannock I assume

 

Sadly not. I've not seen snow in the UK for 3 years. I haven't seen settling snow at all for the same amount of time! Had a crap winter in Oklahoma and then missed the March fun that followed back home.

 

I'm reasonably optimistic for tonight, the latest Euro4 looks very good for the north Midlands. Mostly snow with uppers never getting above -3c and temps remaining around freezing after 6pm. Elevated ground north of Birmingham could get a pasting. At 150m my elevation isn't bad.

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

Dont believe the hype - one little snow event for some parts of the country dont make a winter.

February will be our best chance (imby) for snow.

I've already written off 1st 2 weeks of January for any *meaningful* snow, here in Bristol.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Sadly not. I've not seen snow in the UK for 3 years. I haven't seen settling snow at all for the same amount of time! Had a crap winter in Oklahoma and then missed the March fun that followed back home.

 

I'm reasonably optimistic for tonight, the latest Euro4 looks very good for the north Midlands. Mostly snow with uppers never getting above -3c and temps remaining around freezing after 6pm. Elevated ground north of Birmingham could get a pasting. At 150m my elevation isn't bad.

 

yes you should do quite well Nick so long as the low does not get any further south than the current track it is taking.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

Dont believe the hype - one little snow event for some parts of the country dont make a winter.

February will be our best chance (imby) for snow.

I've already written off 1st 2 weeks of January for any *meaningful* snow, here in Bristol.

 

Why? That's quite a rash judgement with all the model uncertainty right now.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

this post I made in the model thread seems relevant in here

looking at the latest charts and using its current movements since 00z and the isollobars (rate of fall per 3 hours) it still looks like into the Bristol Channel area and into the English Channel about the IOW. As to snow then the update from Met is spot on I think (who am I to make such remarks!) as intensity will be a major factor in where the snow falls, rain for many at low level (in the area threatened) to start turning to snow if the intensity is sufficient. Usually 2mm or more per hour will do it but it might need 4-6mm rainfall rate to achieve it the lower down you are. High ground above about 200m, 600ft or so should get several cm's, maybe 5cm and 10cm+ is possible for even higher up. Think of TM for this and look for his report in the weather today perhaps?

Those Derbyshire web cams should show snow for a good many places tomorrow morning once it gets lighter, along with other in the Midlands area and hills further south. Some will be lucky even on quite low ground further south, again much depends on the intensity. check, if you do not have your own weather station for T and Td, the lower they are better chance you have. Lots of other checks you can do, see the 'how to forecast snow' Guide but enjoy it folks.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

yes you should do quite well Nick so long as the low does not get any further south than the current track it is taking.

 

I feel sorry for my colleague who has to make the calls on this one!

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Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

Seems favorable that this part of the world will be seeing some decent snowcover by tomorrow morning, at 210m asl surrounded by Kinder and Cheshire's highest point there's bound to be some snow at higher levels, if not all the way down to the village heights.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

I feel sorry for my colleague who has to make the calls on this one!

nah its quite exciting when you are in the middle of all this TRYING to get it right, good for you also as you have to be totally objective which if you like snow, even in moderation, is not that easy.

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Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

I'm confident I'll get some snow here, 130m asl should help :yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

It may work out fairly well, the system is already producing snow of the melting on contact variety in parts of Ireland north of the current track, and when it reaches Britain it should be a degree or two colder and the low will be deepening faster. I therefore think it could be all snow north of the track and some accumulations above 300m south of the track too (as the wrap around portion comes through).

 

Best for north Wales, Midlands and counties north of London, inland East Anglia. The North Sea warming effect will probably lead to a rain-snow line at about 50-100 m however far inland that is, and of course there will be a northerly cutoff with some localized onshore mixed streamers to consider.

 

Urban heat islands might be strong enough to reduce amounts in larger cities but rural parts of the Midlands could see 5-10 cms.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

We want this band to slow down!! to show the cold air is retaliating - already cleared the far SW tip.

 

The cold air is digging in behind as well, in fact, this is where the greatest snowfall potential will come from.

Edited by Nick L
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The 12:15 radar update shows the weather system moving in with a large amount of it's precipitation already turning to sleet and snow over Wales and Northern Ireland.

 

attachicon.gifUntitled.png

 

That doesn't show the actual sleet or snow but based on the parameters of GFS I think.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

That doesn't show the actual sleet or snow but based on the parameters of GFS I think.

 

I was about to ask whether that was the case - So if the GFS is wrong and the snow is more widespread than it forecast, we wont know until the second it starts falling out of the sky?

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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

I'm confident I'll get some snow here, 130m asl should help :yahoo:

but west yorkshire looks very unlikely to be in the path of the snowfall looking at latest update on bbc news. Looks like staying South of Sheffield barry.
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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

I was about to ask whether that was the case - So if the GFS is wrong and the snow is more widespread than it forecast, we wont know until the second it starts falling out of the sky?

 

Absolutely. The best way to keep tabs is to keep an eye on the reports in the Ireland and Wales threads :)

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This is quite handy as well, as it gives real time information from a  number of weather stations.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?units=english&rad=1&rad.num=1&rad.spd=25&rad.opa=81&rad.type=00Q&rad.type2=&rad.smo=1&rad.stm=0&sat=0&stormreports=0&svr=0&pix=0&cams=0&tor=0&riv=0&wxsn=0&ski=0&tfk=0&mm=0&ndfd=0&fire=0&firewfas=0&extremes=0&hurrevac=0&sst=0&livesurge=0&femaflood=0&tsunami=0&seismicrisk=0&fault=0&fissures=0&fronts=0&dir=1&dir.mode=driving&hur=0

 

Again beware the rain-snow split for the reasons mentioned above.,

 

The current theme is for temps to rise sharply as the front hits and then plateau and then slightly drop thereafter.

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Posted
  • Location: NW Wales/Snowdonia 1002ft ASL
  • Location: NW Wales/Snowdonia 1002ft ASL

NW Wales here, roughly 110m ASL, a spot that usually does well for snow when we get the cold, it is raining at the moment. I suspect the summits might be white by morning though. An extremely marginal event I think, for me at least, good luck to all. 

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Posted
  • Location: Matlock Derbyshire
  • Location: Matlock Derbyshire

This is quite handy as well, as it gives real time information from a  number of weather stations.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?units=english&rad=1&rad.num=1&rad.spd=25&rad.opa=81&rad.type=00Q&rad.type2=&rad.smo=1&rad.stm=0&sat=0&stormreports=0&svr=0&pix=0&cams=0&tor=0&riv=0&wxsn=0&ski=0&tfk=0&mm=0&ndfd=0&fire=0&firewfas=0&extremes=0&hurrevac=0&sst=0&livesurge=0&femaflood=0&tsunami=0&seismicrisk=0&fault=0&fissures=0&fronts=0&dir=1&dir.mode=driving&hur=0

 

Again beware the rain-snow split for the reasons mentioned above.,

 

The current theme is for temps to rise sharply as the front hits and then plateau and then slightly drop thereafter.

 

that is a great site, couple of stations really close to me, and as you say real time info. cheers.

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