Due A Cold Month?

[Timmytour]

I'll start by defining a "cold" month for the purpose of this thread as one with a mean CET of  3C or under

As I write, a GFS run is tantilising us with the prospect of a cold set up going into January 2015, though of course that could all have changed going into the next run!

Remarkably, cold Januarys between the years 1700 to 1987 ran at the rate of more than two every five years.  But after 1987 we had to wait 10 years for another one then a further 12 years for the next one!!  Yes we then got two in a row, 2009 and 2010, but if our time of exceptional warmth for the UK climate is going to climax with its warmest ever year, it would seem fitting that a cold January 2015 signals a return to normality!

January 2009 bought to an end 12 years without a cold month, by far the longest run ever experienced and only the 8 year run ended by the January of 1740 gets over halfway to it.  In fact there's only been 8 occasions in all where the wait has been four years or more and, that 1740 episode apart, all have come since 1900.

Technically, at the moment, we've been waiting less than two years, since March 2013 qualified as a cold month. But in terms of waiting for a cold winter month, we are now entering the 5th year after December 2010 .......it's been far too long!!!!  Come on January 2015!!
 

Edited December 25, 2014 by Timmytour