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Captain Shortwave

Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas

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The 6z parallel has been on the whiskey by the looks of it.

 

Rpgfs1591.gif

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come on peeps this is the united kingdom theres no question that this winter so far has been close to something more exciting!

but the sad news is this has been same as recent years.

with even projected strat warmings failing.

it would be silly to right of the entire winter and of coarse we have had chillier than last year but in all honesty if you look at the run of winters recently they do seem to be moving back towards the 90s type.

solar activity has shown a marked increase in output and i suspect that most of this winter will have the repeated effects of a rather stubbon azore ridge and a euro ridge at times visiting the uk there for frost and fog could become the most likely feature.

the models are pretty certain on a cold snap for some perhaps even in the south.

i think average to cool periods do look most likely depending on how active the zonal flow can get.

i suspect if theres any chance of cold id lean more towards latter jan early feb but even this im skeptical about the strat events started pretty well but have decreased there influence alot and that the vortex has recovered some what couple this with the mjo its been rather frustrating showing that the weather jigsaw is much much more complex than even the greatest minds could imagine.

another winter another learning curve atleast now we can look at why things are not going to plan.

my chart of the weekend was last nights jma now that would of been perfect for the build up into jan.

still a week nao but this looks to turn positive at the start of 2015

nao.sprd2.gif

also a clear split in the ao so the nao and ao are split but all things considered the positive ao and nao most likely are the form horse.

ao.sprd2.gif

if we can get scandi heights i think this could work better for us with possibly easier under cuts.

Erm sorry but just about everything there about the strat warmings is a load of tosh .

The warmings we had in November done a fantastic job of halting the strengthening of the vortex , but since then until now we'v had no warmings and no waves .

So we'r entering a period of very stong wave activity about to start with fairly significant warmings, more so than anything we had in November . And the results won't be known untill they get well under way . December was dead in the water strat wise mainly because of the Asian low development but we'r on the onset of changes up above and the effects will take a while to be felt . Look how volatile the models are . So really looking behind t144 at the minute is really just for fun .

Edited by Severe Siberian icy blast
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Anyone else having trouble viewing the GFS (P) here on netweather? Charts failed to show or jump about, GFS old all OK.

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But this is the MOD thread so what would you suggest he posted?

Maybe a day 16 chart that has got no chance of happening (again).

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My knowledge is limited to watching and trying to digest what the other sages on here manage to decipher and post about. The one caveat I'd have to all of this is that we'#re forecast to have  a bit of a storm / deep depression 26-27th (ish), What happens after that isn't pinned down (if you can call the forecast up until then reliable then you're braver than me!) But what I have learned is that sometimes after a major event like the one forecast on 26/27th, it heralds a change. It did in August which ended up with the only below average CET for 2014 (so far - probably the only one at all) and there are a number of examples in the past.

 

Seems to me the models are trying to work with unreliable / unpredictable data, hence why we end up with so many potential solutions with no one model being especially more reliable or consistent than the next...the strat warming may also be bugging the data, although not sure if / how that can be introduced into the models.

 

I've already seen snow this winter, albeit briefly so maybe I'm lucky, but we're still way ahead of 13/14!

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Here is a good example of why it is futile making any predictions at the moment.

 

The 06Z GFS at +192 has low pressure at the S tip of Greenland.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.gif

 

GFSP has 1030mb high pressure at +192.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rpgfs1921.gif

 

Im off to inspect my seaweed and count the number of seagulls outside because these are far more useful than looking at the models. Having said this my instincts continue to tell me that after xmas into the New year it will become even colder from the E.

Very close to a very good chart the last one you show , greeny high and undercutting lows . Mmmmm , give it till 4pm and it's be all change again !

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This is a good set-up for a cold spell from the N/E , With High pressure over Greenland and the Atlantic blocked off. Very encouraging signals on today's run's so far. Forget the detail!

 

gfsnh-0-210.png?6gfsnh-0-204.png?6

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Parallel has stuck at T198. Parts of central Europe have gone from -12 850hpa temps to +8 in the space of one run. I think it's too embarrassed to carry on to be honest.

 

Edit: It's off again, and headed to the loony bin. :smiliz39:

 

gfsnh-0-288.png?6

Edited by Yarmy
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I'm refraining from commenting on the model output beyond about 120 hours at present - there is too much volatility and therefore we have to take the models with a huge margin for error beyond reliable timeframe. In an uncertain period, you have to expect the models will flip and flop with various wild scenarios from run to run - no point getting hung up on any one particular output.

 

Sticking to reliable timeframe, the models seem keener on a more direct NW even northerly drift late Christmas Eve through to Boxing Day with a ridge developing later Christmas day into Boxing Day promising a fine crisp Boxing Day for many away from far west - ideal conditions if you want to get out and about. So a seasonal picture on offer compared to conditions of now.

 

Can't comment beyond Boxing Day - too much uncertainty. One thing I have noticed in recent years how the Christmas period itself is often a time for marked error in the models.

Edited by damianslaw
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Very close to a very good chart the last one you show , greeny high and undercutting lows . Mmmmm , give it till 4pm and it's be all change again !

Very good chart for those N of disturbance crossing the UK. A difference of 12C from S England to Scotland. Still like you say it will change at 4pm to probably a S,ly originating from S Africa!

 

I will add to members ignore some of the ensembles charts posted, NAO charts etc. These are all coming from the same models and are worthless when the operationals are so different between runs.

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This is a good set-up for a cold spell from the N/E , With High pressure over Greenland and the Atlantic blocked off. Very encouraging signals on today's run's so far. 

 

gfsnh-0-204.png?6

 

 

Back to reality and the GFS op shows: post-14819-0-26381500-1419245250_thumb.p

 

Probably the most likely scenario with the Pacific Ridge collapsing. The GFS P is the long lost cousin of the ECM op and it's ability to throw out amplified charts may even better the ECM. It will prove popular in this Forum; but can we take it seriously?

 

  MattHugo81

Dec update of the EUROSIP model supports the recent EC Seasonal update & signals greater amount of northern blocking through Jan/Feb/Mar

22/12/2014 10:45

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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Good grief. The models are changing their mind like my bloody wife. Flip-flop!!!

And the differences (though they look quite small, have big effects down the line) start at T-72. Bizarre really. This is miss Shannon Entropy at her finest, and it doesn't look like she is near making her mind up any day soon. Really surprised at that ECM this morning too, so unlike it to flip like that from run to run.

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It's the polar vortex and the predicated movement of cold air mass that is causing all the models such difficulty.

As we stand the large percentage of the PV and lobes are situated on Arctic/Eurasian side of NH.

This is shown on all models at 0z.

Hence the original signal for WAA up into Greenland.

As each model attempts to predict movement of the PV back towards Greenland.

We begin to see signs of an Easterly Scandi High with us the UK providing the WAA.

JMA shows Aleutian ridge anomaly over next 5-8 days. This was the signal we had previously which in turn was to retrogress towards Greenland. Models at present say no to this.

Add the Stratosphere wave activity and Shannon entropy is a certainty.

The behemoth that is the PV holds all the answers. As it is currently under wave attack only a select few can come close to forecasting movements/ outcome.

Each model run to flip flop for the foreseeable as said by many on here. Any bashing of the models during this period is unwarranted as the ability to smoothly predict weather output through this process is currently beyond our technology, for now.

Watch the pattern of movement from the Vortex and lobes to get a better read on the 10 day outcomes.

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Back to reality and the GFS op shows: attachicon.gifgfsnh-0-336.png

 

Probably the most likely scenario with the Pacific Ridge collapsing. The GFS P is the long lost cousin of the ECM op and it's ability to throw out amplified charts may even better the ECM. It will prove popular in this Forum; but can we take it seriously?

 

The thing is I'm Dreaming the GFS op aren't reality yet! As i said in my post forget the detail. Some promising signs this morning for a cold spell of sorts around the corner.

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Back to reality and the GFS op showsattachicon.gifgfsnh-0-336.png

 

Probably the most likely scenario with the Pacific Ridge collapsing. The GFS P is the long lost cousin of the ECM op and it's ability to throw out amplified charts may even better the ECM. It will prove popular in this Forum; but can we take it seriously?

 

  MattHugo81

Dec update of the EUROSIP model supports the recent EC Seasonal update & signals greater amount of northern blocking through Jan/Feb/Mar

22/12/2014 10:45

 

 

I'm sorry, but how do you know that's reality? 

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Back to reality and the GFS op shows: attachicon.gifgfsnh-0-336.png

 

Probably the most likely scenario with the Pacific Ridge collapsing. The GFS P is the long lost cousin of the ECM op and it's ability to throw out amplified charts may even better the ECM. It will prove popular in this Forum; but can we take it seriously?

 

 

Why are you comparing the GFS(P) with GFS at two different time frames..... and why is the chart from 336 hours most likely to be right?

Either Way the GFS(P) has pulled out a run similar to the ECM of late last week with a Greenland block and undercutting.....

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Anyone else having trouble viewing the GFS (P) here on netweather? Charts failed to show or jump about, GFS old all OK.

 

I'm having trouble viewing it because i have to keep rubbing my eyes as i can't believe the changes compared to the 00z run. :w00t:

 

FWIW,a major snow event for parts of the North at 204 hrs.

 

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Way out i know, Lets see what this afternoons runs bring  :smiliz19: I agree with TEITS Seagulls here!

Also a good up-date from Matt H on twitter I'm D has posted re- Dec update of the EUROSIP model 

gfsnh-0-312.png?6

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Why are you comparing the GFS(P) with GFS at two different time frames..... and why is the chart from 336 hours most likely to be right?

Either Way the GFS(P) has pulled out a run similar to the ECM of late last week with a Greenland block and undercutting.....

 

Its because the GFS op has been consistent with regard to the pattern flattening whilst the GFS P goes from 0z Scandi High to 06z Greenland High. How can you take that seriously:

 

post-14819-0-62538000-1419245956_thumb.p  post-14819-0-08142900-1419245957_thumb.p

 

The GFS op is also consistent to the mean where the GFS P is on its own. Its a new model so until it shows consistency and or some verification of its seemingly outlier height bias it is best ignored.

 

Edited by i'm dreaming of...

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Back to reality and the GFS op shows: attachicon.gifgfsnh-0-336.png

 

Probably the most likely scenario with the Pacific Ridge collapsing. The GFS P is the long lost cousin of the ECM op and it's ability to throw out amplified charts may even better the ECM. It will prove popular in this Forum; but can we take it seriously?

 

  MattHugo81

Dec update of the EUROSIP model supports the recent EC Seasonal update & signals greater amount of northern blocking through Jan/Feb/Mar

22/12/2014 10:45

 

yes thought that be the case.gfs is crud with regard northern blocking,always wanting to push through the atlantic no matter what is going on in the meantime.

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