Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas

[Team Jo]

Some posts have been move into banter/Ramps/moans.. If your post isn't here, it's been popped in there....

[nick sussex]

Weather(excuse the pun)you prefer cold or mild,its fairly bog standard winter fayre coming up from what im viewing on the models(on mobile,cant post charts).

All the talk of Cohens theory,ssw,opi etc have not come to fruition yet and tbh im sick to death of posts saying this will happen and that will happen in 10 days or so.....,

Until the mo mention deep cold i wont be swayed by hopecasting,just my take on things.

Regards all.

Unless theories are tested and people try and develop alternative forecasting methods then you end up with just NWP which as you can see in terms of reliability falls off a cliff quickly towards day ten.

 

With time theories either gain a stronger scientific underpinning or fall by the wayside. It's hard to find a 100% correlation with anything weather related you're really looking at what gives a stronger possibility of certain NH patterns developing, there is no absolute certainty because of chaos theory. As much as I share your frustration in terms of having to be patient, I haven't seen much hopecasting going on just people putting forward different theories and background teleconnections to try and see how the winter might develop.

 

You can't simply view a theory over a few years, if for example A+B+C=D then you get a winter where that doesn't add up its then for the researchers to find out why, what other variable might be in play?

 

What if 28 out of 30 winters correlate with the theory but 2 don't? Do you dismiss the theory?

 

I totally understand people want to see deep cold and snow, it may or may not happen this winter,but theres still two months of winter to go and a lot can change.

[mushymanrob]

TEITS

On phone so cant quote but with referrance to your earlier post

Ive seen no one suggest itll be mild outside a few odd blips where according to this mornings outputs we might get occassional milder days as warm sectors cross the uk . Hope i didnt give the impression that itll be mikd, it wont, but it wont be a week of snow frost and ice either.

[Great Plum]

On the gfs 06z, this was the first mild chart I could find...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2521.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn25217.gif

And that's only mild in the west...

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Gfs 00z-06z this morning in low res is like watching a dam burst as all the pent up energy associated with the frigid arctic air flooding out of canada and well into the north atlantic fuels the southern arm of the jet, it's a bit like shaking up a champagne bottle and then uncorking it, the atlantic really cranks up big time during FI with cold air frequently making it across the atlantic and into the uk. In my opinion the 6z has more potent bursts of polar maritime and the occasional arctic incursion. When we do get Tm air, you hardly notice since the surface temps only stagger to the 5-7c range before tumbling as the pm air chases it away. My thoughts are for a rather cold and very disturbed pattern developing through early January, similar to Jan 1984 when we had some very cold zonality and lots of snow showers sweeping across the north. It's not a mild outlook by any stretch of the imagination as things stand.

[Banbury]

Not too sure what people are looking at when they mention mild??

 

Of course , what is peoples perception of mild, in terms of temps??  8c upwards??

 

Temps IMBY from GFS6z

 

4c 4c 3c 3c 4c 4 c 5c 4c 2c 1c 5c 6c 4 c 3 c 8c 4c

 

Looks chilly to me .................thankfully

[Timmytour]

I cant see it Frosty. I mean its hard to pinpoint exact temperatures obviously, but i think after the next 4/5 days things really do get milder. Very long drawn south westerlies Its been more than hinted at by the models.

It's all about biding our time....a long drawn out south westerly is not the end of everything and can even be a prelude to something special

Maybe not that special in the end, but generlly the models have been producing promising looking scenarios every so often this winter, even if they have often <PUN ALERT> flattened to deceive. But I think there are similarities with a winters 1947 and 1955 wher eI imagine had models existed then they would have been hinting at what was actually delivered for many weeks previously. However....all conjecture at this stage I'm afraid

Edited December 27, 2014 by Timmytour

[Froze were the Days]

Nothing truly cold or mild come to that...looking at all the models, a bit like the first week or so of this month to be honest with some cool/cold zonality thrown in and probably windy at times too - have to say nothing exciting if your after cold weather!

[J10]

For those wanting a snowy outlook. Here is the Alps blog for this week and it looking very snowy here this week possibly for the first time this winter.

 

As usual it conditions GFS charts for the upcoming week.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4858-alps-weather-forecast-27-december-2014/

[IDO]

As was the case of the GFS 0z it is how the Alaskan/Pacific Ridge develops after D12 we may get something more interesting. Looking at the T300 GEFS highlights this:

 

 

Again the problem is the block is on the other side of the NH, so for our sector just variations on the theme of PV to the NW. That sort of pattern can only help bottom up strat warming. However I am finding it hard to see any favourable block for the UK for the first third of January (at the moment) but the clear trend is now for a HLB in the Pacific region in FI so things may change quickly in week 2 of Jan.

[IDO]

Not too sure what people are looking at when they mention mild??

 

Of course , what is peoples perception of mild, in terms of temps??  8c upwards??

 

Temps IMBY from GFS6z

 

4c 4c 3c 3c 4c 4 c 5c 4c 2c 1c 5c 6c 4 c 3 c 8c 4c

 

Looks chilly to me .................thankfully

 

Thats if you ignore the much loved ECM which has London temps: 

 

>10c on Friday and Sunday. That is mild. Though looking at the upper air temps on the op for D7 and D9:

 

  

 

It is hard to relate the two! Mind you I am often bemused by the ECM output so nothing new.

[Abyss]

Earlier this month the polar maritime airflow brought wintry showers to NW areas as we know. These were mostly of rain/sleet at sea level. Now that we are going in to January are we more inclined to see these showers become more wintry to low levels as the waters are cooler compared to early December or will it be more of the same? 

Edited December 27, 2014 by -Bomber-

[Jason M]

Earlier this month the polar maritime airflow brought wintry showers to NW areas as we know. These were mostly of rain/sleet at sea level. Now that we are going in to January are we more inclined to see these showers become more wintry to low levels as the waters are cooler compared to early December or will it be more of the same? 

 

 

Yes, the same set up now would likely lead to increased 'wintryness'. It would likely be wet, transient snow though (much like some places saw last night).

 

Maybe put your location in your signature as this always helps.

[Frosty.]

Earlier this month the polar maritime airflow brought wintry showers to NW areas as we know. These were mostly of rain/sleet at sea level. Now that we are going in to January are we more inclined to see these showers become more wintry to low levels as the waters are cooler compared to early December or will it be more of the same? 

I agree 100%, SST's keep falling until march so there is more chance of the showers turning to snow once we get into January, especially if something like the gfs ops was to verify, mega cold air being ejected out of canada into the north atlantic, and although modified on the long sea track, still packing a punch when it hits the uk.

[Snowman.]

Not be considering how far out.

 

 

 

Close match however unlike the OP P20 goes on to develop this

 

Then ends the run with what looks the result of near SSW action.

 

 

 

If we can squeeze some amplification on the ridge at 192 we may have a chance as Nick said.

 

 

That's not all towards the end of most runs they spark up a Russian high. So we can get a good old russian high into play then maybe we can get a march west.

 

Edited December 27, 2014 by SN0WM4N

[bluearmy]

Not be considering how far out.

 

 

 

Close match however unlike the OP P20 goes on to develop this

 

Then ends the run with what looks the result of near SSW action.

 

 

 

If we can squeeze some amplification on the ridge at 192 we may have a chance as Nick said.

There are enough gefs members showing enough varying solutions to make me wonder what might be happening in two weeks time. toss a coin and pick a card. the split strat could well have a bigger influence on week 2 than might be currently showing. TEITS made a great point earlier about these weak upper highs floating around to our north and northwest. As I said earlier, wouldn't be confident about predicting what is going to be the situation come mid jan.

[Tim Bland]

From Chris Fawkes at Metoffice via Twitter ;

@_chrisfawkes: A Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event is occurring over the next 10 days with the Stratospheric vortex splitting in two #Stratosphere

[IDO]

From Chris Fawkes at Metoffice via Twitter ;

@_chrisfawkes: A Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event is occurring over the next 10 days with the Stratospheric vortex splitting in two #Stratosphere

 

 

  RyanSaunby

No SSW forecasted yet but Berlin charts this morning almost had one at like day 8

27/12/2014 12:19

 

 

Not sure what Chris Fawkes suggests is a Technical SSW?

[Dr. Astro]

RyanSaunby

No SSW forecasted yet but Berlin charts this morning almost had one at like day 827/12/2014 12:19

 

 

Not sure what Chris Fawkes suggests is a Technical SSW?

You are comparing a 18 year old weather enthusiast with an Expert from the Metoffice?

I'm quite confident Chris knows the technical aspects of a SSW.

[bluearmy]

RyanSaunby

No SSW forecasted yet but Berlin charts this morning almost had one at like day 827/12/2014 12:19

 

 

Not sure what Chris Fawkes suggests is a Technical SSW?

Had he tweeted SW he would be correct. We are close to a technical SSW by day 9 but it's at 69N rather than 60N.

And Gfs strat forecast week 2 rebuilds the strat vortex rather than maintaining the split so unless he has info that a displaced vortex this side of the NH will force the PFJ South (feasible) then I'm not sure what his tweet is about re his subsequent comments.

[MPG]

From Chris Fawkes at Metoffice via Twitter ;

@_chrisfawkes: A Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event is occurring over the next 10 days with the Stratospheric vortex splitting in two #Stratosphere

You are comparing a 18 year old weather enthusiast with an Expert from the Metoffice?

I'm quite confident Chris knows the technical aspects of a SSW.

Matt Hugo forecast an SSW about 2 weeks ago...nothing yet. MJO is the disconnect, METO going for +NAO for the majority of winter due to this. 1/3 of winter proper gone, METO looking good for a above average winter. Edited December 27, 2014 by MPG

[Abyss]

Matt Hugo forecast an SSW about 2 weeks ago...nothing yet. MJO is the disconnect, METO going for +NAO for the majority of winter due to this. 1/3 of winter proper gone, METO looking good for a above average winter.

Matt Hugo FC an SSW to take place by January 7th. It's still December

[Smiler1709]

Who to believe a 18 year old with spots

Or a professional who works for the met office

No brainer really lol

[IDO]

You are comparing a 18 year old weather enthusiast with an Expert from the Metoffice?

I'm quite confident Chris knows the technical aspects of a SSW.

 

Hi

 

If you go to the strat thread there are more detailed posts on whether this is a Technical SSW: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81567-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20142015/page-46

 

Age is not a barrier to knowledge and there are many posters on this thread who are very young and know their stuff so that is a bit of pigeon holing.

[Abyss]

Yes IDO but a weather enthusiast or a met office employee come on now stop trolling