Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas

[Smiler1709]

When will people learn that FI changes so much so let's talk reliable.

Cold for the next 5 or so days with harsh frosts and the odd wintry shower, anything else us up in the air and again I will bet that the charts will look completely different after this weekend, the cold will become entrenched and the Atlantic will find it a lot harder than forecast to flatten the pattern.

Enjoy what we have now then wait and see what the models churn out.

[mountain shadow]

I wonder if someone could answer this for me - now that we know the front is slightly further north than forecasted, will this have any implications for model output with regards to the next week or so? Or even further... If anyone has any suggestions/explanations/ideas I'd appreciate it!

Micro scale things like that will have little impact.

After this brief cooler spell the PV looks like returning home to Greenland with a broadly Westerly regime ensuing until mid January at least.

[Cloud 10]

ECM splitting the vortex rather nicely in FI.

 

[igloo]

I think the likelihood of the UK having reliable snow during the winter are on the way out.  Global warming is seeing to that.  we used to have typically 10 days of lying snow and no we are lucky if we have even a day or two of falling snow let alone lying snow.  very troubling for the future.

it all depends on which science you listen to some have us in a moscow type climite and some would have us in a jungle type all down to the possible movement of the gulf stream in the future 

[cold snap]

Nothing very cold on any model going forward .but thankfully small bit of interest from ECM at 240

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

[johnholmes]

I wonder if someone could answer this for me - now that we know the front is slightly further north than forecasted, will this have any implications for model output with regards to the next week or so? Or even further... If anyone has any suggestions/explanations/ideas I'd appreciate it!

 

I doubt it very much Joe. In the larger pattern this low and the upper trough with it are just a small blip so I doubt that it will have any marked effect more than a few days from now.

[SMU]

Evening all -

All these snow reports wet the appetite for more!

Sadly the models have moved away from the continental cold lingering around - however as mentioned this morning the ECM is showing the next cold wave already

Very good for the North, not so great for the South just yet.

Never mind!!!

The arctic high brings a lot to the party!!

[Geordiesnow]

When will people learn that FI changes so much so let's talk reliable.

Cold for the next 5 or so days with harsh frosts and the odd wintry shower, anything else us up in the air and again I will bet that the charts will look completely different after this weekend, the cold will become entrenched and the Atlantic will find it a lot harder than forecast to flatten the pattern.

Enjoy what we have now then wait and see what the models churn out.

 

So what is this based on then, may I ask? I think there is a very strong signal for the high to get shaunted out of the way, the PV to be very strong over Canada in particular and the small potential of a another rapidly deep low pressure system. The only real uncertainty is how long will the high hang on for but either way, it looks very likely it will be shaunted out of the way. 

 

Mind you, how can anyone predict it be Atlantic all the way until mid January I will never know, it can only be based on guess work. 

[SLEETY]

Yes the Arctic high is what we need for true severe cold with deep snow.forget this mlb blocking we need the Arctic high to build down from Svalbard region like all the infamous cold spell jan87 etc

[ANYWEATHER]

Nothing very cold on any model going forward .but thankfully small bit of interest from ECM at 240

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

Evening folks, and I hope you are having a great Christmas :smiliz19: Plenty of wintry weather in the next 36 hours, indeed the models show marginal snow events for the Uk in the days ahead thanks to some potent shots of Polar Maritime air :w00t:

[Frosty.]

Yes hard to believe that the Met are ramping the prospects for the next few days. Bordering on calling a National Emergency: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert  

 

A passing low with some back edge snow. Some cold days over the next five and its like the sequel to "The Day After Tomorrow". The Derby temp forecast (in that Cold Weather Alert zone):

 

graphe6_0000_271_85___.gif  Cold...but extreme? Just December fare surely

 

If the strat does split what sort of headlines are we going to get from the Met.

 

Some sort of perspective would be sensible. I thought they wouldn't go the Madden/Express hyperbole route but these new severe weather warnings are really out there.

You say, have said this is just run of the mill December fare, obviously the met office take a rather different view. :-)

[reef]

Some off-topic posts have been removed. For snow reports or discussing the current event please use the following thread:

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82113-boxing-day-snow-event-thoughts-and-reports/

 

Thanks

[mushymanrob]

Sadly the models have moved away from the continental cold lingering around -

Have they? They look very similar to whats been recently predicted, the high sinking south into the continent, milder uppers with southwesterlies by tues/weds, the cold lingering longest in the southeast.

[Frosty.]

I agree with mushy, the fine cold spell next week will gradually be eroded from the north west as the Atlantic strengthens and we will return to the unsettled and windy early to mid Dec pattern.

[SMU]

Yes mushy they have

00 ukmo had the cold air moving back NW through the uk at 144, the 12z has the Atlantic air making inroads SE at 144

It was whether we could see another squeeze of SE winds through undercutting -

Edited December 26, 2014 by Steve Murr

[SLEETY]

Just wait for the Arctic high in 10 days to build southwards.the ecm been showing this for last two runs.although its output at that range is normally complete bull,we live in hope it is calling the correct pattern for that time+ scale for a change.

[mushymanrob]

Yes mushy they have

00 ukmo had the cold air moving back NW through the uk at 144, the 12z has the Atlantic air making inroads SE at 144

It was whether we could see another squeeze of SE winds through undercutting -

Oh the ukmo.... But the ecm and gfs are broadly in agreement and those runs are showing more or less the same evolution over the last few runs and is why i posted my doubts over the longevity of this cold snap. Nothings changed in that respect. previous posts are there to be read along with my reasoning.

[IDO]

Have they? They look very similar to whats been recently predicted, the high sinking south into the continent, milder uppers with southwesterlies by tues/weds, the cold lingering longest in the southeast.

 

Yes if consistency is anything then the last three days of GEFS have sunk the high and returned us to zonal. 

 

It looks like a repeat of the pattern we had from the second week of November where a Pacific Ridge dropped the US in the cold and sent spurts of LP from the NW into the Atlantic towards the UK. This time the PV is more developed so the flow will be much stronger so I don't expect the Euro/Russian heights to play in the approaching setup as they did in November. In November there was a propensity for the models to throw in a polar high but they were false dawns, so maybe more teasers from the ops with the upcoming repeated pattern. 

 

ECM D10 mean:   

 

Strong ridge over the Pacific. Very flat upstream. This pattern lasted a couple of weeks in November so we have to be wary that it may take a while for something more interesting to arise. Though as we will be in January the PM flow won't be wasted on favourable areas up north re snow and it should be cooler UK wise than November (CET).

 

I am not sure of an SSW till late Jan at the earliest, this seems to be the latest update from Dr Cohen. Some warming in January but if we get an SSW (big if the way we keep going) it is now mentioned in the 30 day plus summary: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation The CFS has been downgrading northern blocking in January so that may be a sign.

 

At least some should get some snow tonight. Then 5-6 days of high pressure over the SE, less the further NW you are. London 3-4c below average in that period:

 

Edited December 26, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[snow freak]

I know what will happen.  we will get the SSW in april just when we don't want it.

[Duane S.]

Have they? They look very similar to whats been recently predicted, the high sinking south into the continent, milder uppers with southwesterlies by tues/weds, the cold lingering longest in the southeast.

Very misleading comment. You know full well the charts are not showing the potential they did. The milder scenario being firmed up on today was by no means a certainty a few days ago, don't make out otherwise.

[dragan]

^ I would also say the milder trend has been picked up on for a while tbh ^^ 

[swfc]

Well outside atm we have a couple of inches of snow and its still snowing!anyway the mo does look a bit rank entering jan but the nh profile does look fluid so hopefully in the weeks a head things may become more wintry.im off out in snow with my bulldog so enjoy!!!!

[mushymanrob]

Very misleading comment. You know full well the charts are not showing the potential they did. The milder scenario being firmed up on today was by no means a certainty a few days ago, don't make out otherwise.

I know full well that this cold snap over the last day or so has modelled the high sinking south and a slow return to less cold weather over the next week. Just view the thread and youll see that's what the models have shown, but not what some rampers would have you believe. Its all there in the thread.

But please note im referring to the last 24-36 hours outputs, not previous fi outputs.

Nothing misleading there, read previous posts and ive been consistent but dont ramp the cold which is of course unpopular.

[Summer Sun]

With the met office / beeb going for a milder south westerly breeze and more unsettled outlook for early 2015 GEM may be fairly close with its 850's

 

 

GEM does show it cooling down though from the 3rd

 

[fromey]

I've been away for a few days, what the hell happend to the high going to scandy and winds from the east, I now read we are back looking at FI, I thought there was some cross model agreement, obviously not!!

Fromey

Ps hope everyone had a good xmas