Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas

[Mark Neal.]

GFS 6z gives temperatures widely 0-2c across much of the UK through SUN-WEDS at least, with overnight lows of -4c,-5c. So it is going to feel very cold under high pressure. 

Have a lovely Christmas Everyone!!  :smiliz64:

Edited December 25, 2014 by Mark N

[MidnightSnow]

GFS 6z gives temperatures widely 0-2c across much of the UK through SUN-WEDS at least, with overnight lows of -4c,-5c. So it is going to feel very cold under high pressure. 

Have a lovely Christmas Everyone!!  :smiliz64:

This is the next best thing to snow in my opinion so I will enjoy the morning dog walks next week.

Still have a teeny weeny bit of hope of seeing snow IMBY tomorrow but it's most probably going to be rain. I hope you guys in more favoured positions see the white stuff tomorrow!

Merry Christmas!

[Frosty.]

This is the next best thing to snow in my opinion so I will enjoy the morning dog walks next week.

Still have a teeny weeny bit of hope of seeing snow IMBY tomorrow but it's most probably going to be rain. I hope you guys in more favoured positions see the white stuff tomorrow!

Merry Christmas!

I agree,

Way too much doom and gloom, it's Christmas day for goodness sake and there is a lot of snow forecast for tomorrow in certain areas followed by sharp frosts and freezing fog. It's much better than anything we had last winter by a country mile!

Hope everyone is having a great Christmas :-)

Edited December 25, 2014 by Frosty.

[Mucka]

Merry Christmas all.

 

Good luck to all coldies on seeing some snow tomorrow.

 

My belief is the models are being far too progressive collapsing the ridge and flattening the pattern, all except UKMO perhaps which seems more plausible.

 

I don't expect to see a big flip back to a raging Easterly in the output but I do expect slow corrections to have the high further NW than currently modelled by day 5/6 across the majority of the output so slow moves toward UKMO type solution.

 

Some funny posts about zonal weather setting up for the rest of January and my advice would be Ignore the zonal signal in FI for now.

The block will likely prove more stubborn and if so the pattern will be more amplified and further West than currently modelled - by GFS especially.

 

As stated, I don't expect a big flip back but the outlook for January could (likely will IMO) look very different in a couple of days time.

 

Of course the weather will do what it wants regardless of my opinion but I would give it 48 hours at least before throwing my ice rattle out of the pram.

 

Enjoy the festive period all, I'm off for to stuff myself stupid and over indulge, where a silly hat and generally make a fool of myself in keeping with the best traditions of Christmas.

[snowking]

A quick update before I enter a food induced coma:

6z Euro4 increases the snow signal slightly running to the North of the M4 coridoor. It also has the bulk of the precipitation significantly further south than the northern extent of the warning area.

If the southward corrections continue across the 12z suites we could be looking at a Wales - S Mids - East Anglia event. 12z ECMWF in particular awaited with interest at the various met organisations I'm sure.

SK

[Frosty.]

God I love Xmas day, drunk as a skunk, too much Turkey and models showing frost and snow, life is good!

[SMU]

Well good afternoon everyone.

The whole family @ murr towers wishes everyone a merry christmas -

We are poised at the start of a transition today to much colder weather & with snow in the mix

A word of guidence:

Since the advent of model watching in 2001 we have been in this scenario many times in winter months with high pressure ridging to scandi , i can recall on nearly every scenario all models, more so the GFS will usher the atlantic through very quickly. Sometimes it must be said they are correct & ridging has failed, however on the occasions that things have gradually fallen into place for the UK the models start to back away from the atlantic at about day 5

So I would urge caution in throwing the towel in at this early juncture ..... The fat lady hasnt even stuck into her turkey yet.....

Also on a personal note my winter forecast hinges around a pattern change third quartile of december & a cold continental influenced Jan....

Warmest regards

Steve

[derby4life]

All looking good then for some white stuff tomorrow ...interesting trip back from St.Andrews then after footy ....thanks everyone on here for brilliant addictive viewing ...life is indeed a rollercoaster ..merry Xmas one and all

[Jason M]

All looking good then for some white stuff tomorrow ...interesting trip back from St.Andrews then after footy ....thanks everyone on here for brilliant addictive viewing ...life is indeed a rollercoaster ..merry Xmas one and all

Ah, someone else on here with impeccable taste in football :-) let's hope they get back on track.

Still maybe some room for upgrades in both near and medium term. I can't help thinking that there should be more heights to our NE than our being progged. Bit suprised to see snow forecast herd for tommorow night as well. Can't see it personally, but you never know.....

[blueballs]

Merry christmas everyone! Many thanks for sharing your knowledge on this forum and keeping me entertained throughout the year, even if it does end up with me telling my mates its going to snow next week and looking stupid all the time........this time....maybe! Im no model reader but i follow the solar output closely. Im hoping the recent high solar output which i belive has set back cohens sai theroys is finally starting to wane and this will deliver the big fat ssw that santa forgot soon after the new year bringing snow n ice aplenty. Have a goodun gang and keep the faith...ITS A COMING!

[A.J]

Well good afternoon everyone.

The whole family @ murr towers wishes everyone a merry christmas -

We are poised at the start of a transition today to much colder weather & with snow in the mix

A word of guidence:

Since the advent of model watching in 2001 we have been in this scenario many times in winter months with high pressure ridging to scandi , i can recall on nearly every scenario all models, more so the GFS will usher the atlantic through very quickly. Sometimes it must be said they are correct & ridging has failed, however on the occasions that things have gradually fallen into place for the UK the models start to back away from the atlantic at about day 5

So I would urge caution in throwing the towel in at this early juncture ..... The fat lady hasnt even stuck into her turkey yet.....

Also on a personal note my winter forecast hinges around a pattern change third quartile of december & a cold continental influenced Jan....

Warmest regards

Steve

I normally urge members to hit the 'like' button, but sod it, it's Christmas!....Cheers, Steve, good luck with the winter LRF and have a happy christmas  :smiliz19:

[gottolovethisweather]

My first post on here and would like to wish you all a merry christmas. Been watching with a keen eye trying to learn was much as possible for the last Month. Love the banter, disagreements and technical speak. You guys rock   Hopefully as next year progresses and I learn more I will be able to join in! 

 

More of these type of posts from the lurkers and first-timers please   , come join in the conversation. No matter your ability at analysing the various shenanigans of climate and weather, none of us, not a single person knows any better than Mother Nature in the end. What will be will be and to my mind, there is likely to be a brief period of snow for a fair few of us, just wait and see, precisely where the weather dice for snowfall rolls and don't be stressing over it.

 

I've been saying for a long time, the colder period after Boxing Day was one of much interest and the more snow that can settle (difficult to judge until the actual event) the better the scene will be thereafter for the cold brigade, including my good self. A prolonged period of HP somewhere near residence over the UK looks the favourite setup as we enter the New Year but with some lucky folk having a cover of snow this won't be of much consequence as we can all go out and enjoy the stuff.

 

MERRY CHRISTMAS.

 

I've certainly not expecting the following anytime soon.

 

 

But I am expecting some of this activity, just whereabouts though is an entirely different matter.

 

 

  :smiliz19:

Edited December 25, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Bartlett High]

Happy Xmas everyone!  i'll have raging blizzards and record breaking low temps for the new year please

[Frosty.]

I normally urge members to hit the 'like' button, but sod it, it's Christmas!....Cheers, Steve, good luck with the winter LRF and have a happy christmas  :smiliz19:

Oooh I hit the like button :-) thankfully the models are not modelling a mild and mushy Christmas this year..no offence to Mildies in this season of good will of course. :-)

[MidnightSnow]

A quick update before I enter a food induced coma:

image.jpg

6z Euro4 increases the snow signal slightly running to the North of the M4 coridoor. It also has the bulk of the precipitation significantly further south than the northern extent of the warning area.

If the southward corrections continue across the 12z suites we could be looking at a Wales - S Mids - East Anglia event. 12z ECMWF in particular awaited with interest at the various met organisations I'm sure.

SK

Excuse the IMBY post but what are the chances of the PPN being snow south of the M4? I'm guessing as its only 24 hours away there isn't going to be too much change but I will clutch every single straw until it happens lol.

[Panayiotis]

Sunday could prove to be another interesting day as an occluded front moves down the country which is embedded in cold air, one to watch after tomorrow!

Edited December 25, 2014 by Panayiotis

[snowking]

Excuse the IMBY post but what are the chances of the PPN being snow south of the M4? I'm guessing as its only 24 hours away there isn't going to be too much change but I will clutch every single straw until it happens lol.

Even North of the M4 upland areas are more favoured obviously, but even South of the M4 (if the current track is correct) some of the heavier bursts could turn to snow overnight.

Of course if we see the low even shallower than current projected it may yet still shift further South...in which case a total recalculation of snowfall potential would be required. Dew points generally look marginal, but as the precipitation becomes more intense the hope is that the temperature profiles will become more and more favourable. Nocturnal cooling should also play it's part so the more precipitation you see after dark, the better the chances.

We will know more after the 12z suites but often these situations come down to nowcasting

SK

[tinybill]

Even North of the M4 upland areas are more favoured obviously, but even South of the M4 (if the current track is correct) some of the heavier bursts could turn to snow overnight.

Of course if we see the low even shallower than current projected it may yet still shift further South...in which case a total recalculation of snowfall potential would be required. Dew points generally look marginal, but as the precipitation becomes more intense the hope is that the temperature profiles will become more and more favourable. Nocturnal cooling should also play it's part so the more precipitation you see after dark, the better the chances.

We will know more after the 12z suites but often these situations come down to nowcasting

SK

well acc  to the  bbc  its looking good  for the south/east of  UK   now  2morrow  night

[Captain Shortwave]

Sunday could prove to be another interesting day as an occluded front moves down the country which is embedded in cold air, one to watch after tomorrow!

Yes there has been a signal for the potential for wintry showers to push south down the north sea coasts on Sunday. Anyway drunk and stuffed full of turkey now. So hopefully as many people as possible receive some of the white stuff. Beyond that, the strong Canadian jet looks to close to where we are now to not verify. But I don't expect the flatter pattern to last long. Maybe just until beyond new year.

[bluearmy]

As far as a scandi ridge verifying next week is concerned, of course it remains feasible. It's just the lesser option compared to a flat zonal or euro ridge to our se. All it would take is more amplification upstream and the Atlantic trough would dig further south and throw up some WAA to lift the ridge north. each run which fails to do it makes it that bit less likely but it's only yesterday that we saw some ops doing it so we're far from past the point of no return yet.

And yes captain, the renewed jet seems certain to verify but the pattern we have this side of the Atlantic at that point would probably mean more interesting consequences for nw Europe at that timescale. Hence the chance of an undercut, an approaching trough headed ne into embedded cold air or a possible sausage high to our east whilst the jet rages to its north. All less likely than a standard cool zonal outlook but all still possible.

Please don't think this is a ramp for cold - the chances of cold being the way forward next weekend are much lower than evens but we would be remiss to write it off at this moment.

and how strongly to trust the 12z runs? Would be good if someone could link to the NOAA site where they comment on the quality of the input data just to dispel/support any 'missing data' stuff.

Edited December 25, 2014 by bluearmy

[Jason74]

More of these type of posts from the lurkers and first-timers please   , come join in the conversation. No matter your ability at analysing the various shenanigans of climate and weather, none of us, not a single person knows any better than Mother Nature in the end. What will be will be and to my mind, there is likely to be a brief period of snow for a fair few of us, just wait and see, precisely where the weather dice for snowfall rolls and don't be stressing over it.

 

I've been saying for a long time, the colder period after Boxing Day was one of much interest and the more snow that can settle (difficult to judge until the actual event) the better the scene will be thereafter for the cold brigade, including my good self. A prolonged period of HP somewhere near residence over the UK looks the favourite setup as we enter the New Year but with some lucky folk having a cover of snow this won't be of much consequence as we can all go out and enjoy the stuff.

 

MERRY CHRISTMAS.

 

I've certainly not expecting the following anytime soon.

 

 

But I am expecting some of this activity, just whereabouts though is an entirely different matter.

 

 

  :smiliz19:

I'd happily bank a few ice cold days and frosts for the tail end of this week to the middle of next week. Happy Christmas mate and to everyone on here.

[Mark Neal.]

@fergieweather: W COUNTRY Potential for some snow (likely small amounts, to 2cm) has been extended S for tomorrow to lie essentially #Bristol-M4 northwards

[kev238]

Merry Christmas everyone

This week has been fascinating in terms of modelling the weather on the 26th- 27th- it is very unclear what the low will deliver but it seems that many parts will see their first falling snow in over a year

Longer term a brief flattening of the pattern seems likely but I can't see it lasting too long .

[Panayiotis]

@fergieweather: W COUNTRY Potential for some snow (likely small amounts, to 2cm) has been extended S for tomorrow to lie essentially #Bristol-M4 northwards

I saw that, what does it actually mean?

[Wilxy]

I saw that, what does it actually mean?

 

Chance of snow M4 Northwards.