Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas

[frosty ground]

Couple of weeks? When we get locked into a zonal spell it's 4 weeks minimum...6 if we are really unlucky...by then you're mid February and most of the winter gone..oh dear.

Ha Ha these Christmas jokes are so funny

[nick sussex]

Morning all and Merry Christmas

 

I think our letters to Santa haven't been delivered and are gathering dust at the sorting office! Apparently mine is still stuck in Paris, apparently there was a walkout after the bakery delivered some burnt croissants to the overnight staff! the French are renowned for their militancy, apparently said baking tragedy was the last straw for the staff! :smiliz19:

 

Just trying to inject a little humour in the face of some 3 day old stale Christmas Pudding type output!

 

As its Christmas this thread won't be subjected to one of my over the top tirades! So apart from a few rogue models the outputs generally sing from the same carol sheet by flattening the high, a few dissenting elves have broken away from the Santa Mild Mush Sleigh, the UKMO and NAVGEM, the latter in particular holding the high in a colder position for the UK, the UKMO keeps the cold out to T144hrs.

 

The ECM postage stamps still show a split in solutions at T120hrs, a decent amount keep the high further north but there is good support for the operational run and it might be more of a timing issue in terms of how quickly the high gets flattened.

 

Overall there has been a growing trend to fire up low heights to the north, whether this trend gets reversed we can but hope.

Edited December 25, 2014 by nick sussex

[Captain Shortwave]

For what appears to be for the sake of a few insane/depressed souls in hear that take absolutely every model output run as gospel , it seems that ones forget where we are in terms of background drivers and signals , we have saw how many times the models struggle with anything more than 4 days away so my advise is have a good day , drink wine , eat lots of food and see your family's .

Much more toying with the models in the coming days . Theres large warmings happening high up above as I type and impacts although unknown certainly do not support zonal tosh . If we get a sinking high it's likely to be very tempary if at all , with more reasons to believe in a Scandi high than the Atlantic express .

In the mean time we have the Boxing Day low fiasco which has moved considerably South in the last 24 hours which looks like bringing snow to some , with backedge snow for many in the zone from say the Midlands/northern England . Followed by an easterly . After that we have no idea . But like Tamara's excellent posts say don't expect zonal and don't expect a bartlett !!!

We have had quite a few event which have not gone to plan, one of these being anomalous troughing over NW Asia which made the Siberian high hit the buffers, so already there are hints that northern hemisphere weather patterns are not exactly going by the script. Given the explosive lowering of heights to our north west, it's hard to buy anything solution other than a strong jet riding over the high over northern Europe. The exact placement though could determine whether we end up cold and frosty, cloudy but dry and fairly mild or a more unsettled pattern. But the chances of an easterly from this set up being prolonged more than 24 hours or so looks unlikely.

This flatter pattern probably won't last too long as the lobe will either move away or blow itself out. But for the time being it looks like being the main driver as we go into the new year. Good operational and ensemble agreement for that to be the case.

[Joe Levy]

I want to wish everyone on this forum a Merry Christmas! It has been a pleasure to follow the weather goings-on via here over the past couple of years, and sometimes I've had something to contribute! Here's to many more years on here and many more fascinating topsy-turvy weather patterns! 

 

On a side note, try not to get too caught up with the models and their mood swings. Very little about this chart (the GEFS 0z) suggests long term agreement and we know how quickly the GEFS can change anyway! http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=311&y=141

 

Besides, who needs agreement when you have PB 3  

[Frosty.]

Lordy Lordy it's Christmas day and the first winter is over posts are already flying around. Enjoy the snow tomorrow and the frosts during the nights ahead and look towards January with hope.

Merry Christmas to everyone :-)

)

[Hocus Pocus]

Merry Xmas but why is everyone down in the dumps. Enjoy your day and remember todays model output is just one more variable that may or may not happen.

[mushymanrob]

But if this becomes reality it will of proven to of been the best guide yet as it is the one chart that has not changed majorly in recent days.

 

... and this morning the mean chart you posted does look like being what we will get in reality.  this highlights more then anything the value of a unbiased, objective post.

 

No offence to Tamara, but she's not always right. The high could easily sink. But I agree, anything can happen.

 

who is always right?.. no one!

talking of which, dont the charts this morning look like the atlantic driven westerly flow the gfs suggested a few days ago, ?, so, are you going to swim naked in the north sea?

 

Yeah she said a pattern change during the middle to end of December, so she was definitely right about that. But the weather can make fools out of even the most knowledgeable posters.

 

 

 

erm, shes not the only one who has been championing pattern changes, they havnt happened either.

well.... yet another failure by the look of it. failure to deliver a proper cold spell appears to be this seasons theme im affraid (remember id like one with the rest of winter mild). this is alittle frustrating as this winters shaping up to be pretty 'average' overall , but at least theres 2 months of it left.

[Banbury]

Couple of weeks? When we get locked into a zonal spell it's 4 weeks minimum...6 if we are really unlucky...by then you're mid February and most of the winter gone..oh dear.

For the uneducated on here can you please post some charts to back this comment up. Are you trained in meteorology?? Just interested as you seem quite confident and bullish in you post.

 

Thanks

Edited December 25, 2014 by Banbury

[Trom]

Im also a newbie..i just try to follow certain posters..maybe i could suggest Gibby for a totally

Unbiased view..others include nick sussex, TEITS, steve murr and Tamara (i understand her even less) but its a good education..

Don't panic anyway regarding the easterly being touted..according to the BBC weather forecast, anything after boxing day is up for grabs..they still haven't got the incoming low pressure narrowed down to where it will eventually

Depart from our little island..

Apologies to anybody i haven't included in my respected peer list as i know everyone on here is more learned than me..

 

This is exactly how I started - using Gibby's summaries and then going to the charts to see if I could see how he'd reached his conclusions.  

[The Post-modern Winter]

Models all over the place and mildys are out in force. Weeks of zonal apparently. Avoid for a while until the wind ups have left the building

Think a few posters are confusing their Christmas day associations - it's a time for elves, not trolls.

I genuinely feel sorry for those on Christmas day, whose first port of call is to come revel in some schadenfreude on netweather. I sincerely hope they get a little more happiness and positive focus in their lives over the next year.

Merry Christmas to one and all.

Edited December 25, 2014 by The Post-modern Winter

[mushymanrob]

Couple of weeks? When we get locked into a zonal spell it's 4 weeks minimum...6 if we are really unlucky...by then you're mid February and most of the winter gone..oh dear.

 

not true.... theres NO 'minimum' time spent under a zonal spell. this is as misleading as 'a guaranteed week of cold' post made yesterday.

it is true to suggest an established zonal flow is hard to shift... and it is true to suggest it might last all winter, but it equally might not. personally, the theme so far is one whereby proper cold spells have failed to become reality, but on the plus side at least there have been chances and id suggest in a 'safe' zonal flow there are no chances.

if we are still getting charts like this mornings, in a months time, then it would be unlikely to get a cold evolution. but for now the atmosphere is in a turbulent state so anything might evolve.

[Weather-history]

Merry Xmas but why is everyone down in the dumps. Enjoy your day and remember todays model output is just one more variable that may or may not happen.

True. It is only the weather.

Enjoy your day and be thankful that we were not around 100 years ago.

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82101-christmas-truce-of-1914/

Merry Christmas everyone 🎅🎄

[bluearmy]

Apart from the usual festive greetings, the NWP appears totally scroogelike for coldies today (taking the next few days aside - much of next week will remain surface cold).

Looking purely at the trop output, the pattern looks to flatten and the best we can promise is the whole area of low heights to our north sinking slowly south to change the zonal flow ever colder (under pressure from polar heights the other side of the NH). That's ECM ens and gefs out to two weeks, gefs, keener on actually having a cold trough across nw Europe in two weeks time.

yesterday's ECM strat run looks good re wave activity towards a splitting vortex and I suspect comments re uncertainty in the pattern in the new year could be related to events high up and the way they could quickly influence things in the trop. (Gfs strat if not so exciting in week 2 as some recent runs). That part all conjecture - currently we seem to have cold high followed by a drift into zonal flow which becomes colder in time and would undoubtedly bring snowfall to the northern half of the uk, especially given elevation.

Edited December 25, 2014 by bluearmy

[John Snow]

So much negativity today

Christmas Day charts are probably lacking some data so should be taken at face value

Tomorrow and Saturday huge swathes of the country are going to get a whiteout, something that never happened at all last winter

With SSW to come soon there is pllenty of reasons to be cheerful

[johnholmes]

A Happy Christmas everyone

Some interest in just where the low, now thankfully much less of a major threat, at least in terms of any storm suurge in the N Sea. Still doubt on its exact track and some might still get some snow as it passes.

For newcomers your best guide, other than watching the radar as it happens, is perhaps the Met office Fax charts, link below and watching the actual weather on a couple of sires, again links below

Fax charts

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm

actual charts, the first one shows the isobars and you can track the low using the guides on what at the top of the page

http://meteocentre.com/analyse/map.php?hour=0〈=en&map=UK

or this one below, click on which station is nearest to you, click on it again and it gives you the GFS prediction for several days ahead.

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Again for newbies trying to understand what is happening with various posters giving differing versions of what they say the models are showing, you will soon get a good idea of who wants cold and who wants mild and who actually tries to post objectively. It would be unfair for me to name folk but follow the two professional forecasters on video links from the front page, both ex BBC forecasters for top quality interpretations. Also Nic F blogs, Net Wx senior froecaster.

 

My take is usually given for 6 days and further ahead and I use the 500mb anomaly charts for this.

They, once or twice, did show charts that MIGHT have led to deep cold from a northerly point, but there was never enough continuity or consistency to really go for this to happen. I don't think I ever gave more than about a 40% risk, after this short cold spell behind the low tomorrow. By cold I mean deep cold not surace chill under a high pressure.

This seems to be what they the main 3 that is, are becoming more clear on, see links below

NOAA

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

and ECMWF-GFS

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

I expect those charts are a bit beyond any newcomer to work them out so time spent in the Net Wx Guides should help with them and all manner of other information and easy to follow. If you are still not sure then please pm whoever has their name on the article and I am sure they will be pleased to try and explain things for you.

link to them all is below

https://forum.netweather.tv/forum/24-learning-about-weather-and-meteorology/

Edited December 25, 2014 by johnholmes

[dragan]

Looks very much like a zonal pattern setting up after the weekend. I was heavily sceptical about any cold lasting longer than a few days. Also looks like the milder weather will last a while.[/quot

Really annoying post Alert!!!!!!

How is this annoying? I have looked at the model output, and it shows what i have written. I have tried to contribute unlike yourself. If it showed a long drawn easterly, i would write that.

Im a huge cold weather fan, but even myself living in Scotland cant see anything other than a normal brief blast of cold.

[johnholmes]

and PLEASE it is Christmas Day, STOP digging at one another, intepret the charts as you feel is correct, don't be drawn into arguing, use the report button and let the team sort anything out - PLEASE

[LomondSnowstorm]

Think a few posters are confusing their Christmas day associations - it's a time for elves, not trolls.

I genuinely feel sorry for those on Christmas day, whose first port of call is to come revel in some schadenfreude on netweather. I genuinely hope they get a little more happiness and positive focus on their lives over the next year.

Merry Christmas to one and all.

Quite, if there's one thing we could do without it's the over certainty from some posters who manage to write off not just the reliable (up to +120 is cold at the surface still with some snow potential) but also the next fortnight/month/decade. Given how much change we saw in the last 24 hours I wouldn't be totally surprised to see a flip back towards at least better mid latitude heights (certainly as Nick said not the upstream pattern the NCEP guidance expected) but even if it does go wrong early in the New Year this morning's EC strat charts show why it's unlikely to last long - big wave 2 activity developing at D10 and zonal winds really dropping off - that doesn't bode for a healthy vortex.

Also, still bemused by the hero worshipping of the GFS op which is objectively the third or fourth best model for the NH and failed badly with the track of the low at D4 just two days ago.

Anyway, merry Christmas and let's hope for a merrier output this afternoon!

[samalllpop]

guys cheer up the models cant even forecast this low right and its gunna hit us in about 36 hours, the models may look the same or similar but the fine detail is very much different and we could see some surprise snowfall... me being down south and getting predicted temperatures of 3 degreees.. it might easily snow.. so merry christmas everyone and remember the models dont mean anything till after this low has hit!

[kumquat]

The model output has been so crazy over the last few weeks. I'm not going to let any silly iterations spoil my Christmas.

 

Happy Christmas to all at Netweather and we'll get back to the stunning output later after the turkey and Christmas pudding!

 

:smiliz19: :w00t:

[Summer Sun]

Once the high builds in it could take some shifting according to ECM

 

 

With the high though it should bring quite a bit of colder temperatures with some frost and fog, although some higher 850's are shown around the end of this year and very early 2015 it doesn't last long plus temperatures at ground level may still be quite low

 

[legritter]

True. It is only the weather.

Enjoy your day and be thankful that we were not around 100 years ago.

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82101-christmas-truce-of-1914/

Merry Christmas everyone

my star christmas post ,and a thank you to all those brave soldiers ,remember all models at long range are subject to sudden change ,any wind up merchants around find another hobby ,merry christmas to all ,hope you all have a fantastic day ,enjoy the weather synoptics of the next 3/4 days could be a few surprises ,cheers  :smiliz64: 

[Polar Maritime]

An interesting day tomorrow..

 

 Snow is likely in some northern and central areas, more especially on hills, with some significant accumulations possible. There is also an increasing signal for snow to affect some southern areas. The areas currently at greatest risk are parts of the Midlands, and southern parts of northern England. More settled conditions are expected thereafter, although it is likely to remain cold with widespread night frosts, and with mean temperatures widely 2C or less.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

[A.J]

. I really just don't understand the downbeat nature of majority of this morning's posts, as I've looked at the short term modelling this morning, and I'm very, very excited as it predicts copious quantities of tasty food and a shed load of booze later on today!    

 

Merry Boozemas!

[Joe Levy]

Because it's Christmas, I'm looking for positives and being cheerful. On a more serious note, the 6z has the high slightly stronger and further north, meaning that the cold is more pronounced in Europe over the next week.

 on the 6z

vs this on the 0z 

EDIT: also this on the parallel - very cold uppers fairly close to the South East. Small corrections would make some difference at least in terms of temperatures

Edited December 25, 2014 by Joe Levy