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Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas


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Mean while in the real world away from the MOD... A tragic accident has cost 6 lives in Glasgow. yes this is off topic but a timely reminder of just how unimportant the weather really is in our lives.

There is an enormous lack of respect for other people in this thread at the moment. I suggest that if one doesn't have something to add to the model discussion with a salient chart or pertinent inf

Model uncertainty throwing both operational and ensemble data into discontinuity has proved as rife as was expected a week ago - when AAM flipped to negative tendency along with GWO phasing that was i

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Well I like the GFSP bitterly cold air treading over, with SST (sea surface temperatures) much warmer than what we can expect at this time of year, this will aid in explosive convection... like 2010 proportions. Finally I'd like you to wish you all a very Merry Christmas, I wish you all well and hope for prosperity as we head into the year 2015 - for each and every one of you. Events this week play testament to how precious our time on this planet is, so I ask of you to follow your dreams & most of all be happy for what you have. :)

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Yeah she said a pattern change during the middle to end of December, so she was definitely right about that. But the weather can make fools out of even the most knowledgeable posters.

 

Nope, I can't remember who made that post :pardon:

Haha.

I do agree none of us know where we are heading next and the weather is very unpredictable.

I'm just very unconvinced that the GFS (old) has any clue how to resolve the upcoming pattern or even any model for that matter.

Did the day 10,9 or 8 mean (since we are on the subject) show the low taking anywhere near the path it's currently projected to take? Did they show the amplification of the pattern behind that low? Did they show the cold surface high thereafter at 8,9, 10 days out?

Perhaps people can prove my suspicions wrong, but I suspect they did not suggest any of those things (any more than fleeting op runs)

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EDIT: clearly, if the southward bias of 12z GM & E4 proves correct (despite UKMO shift slightly N in modified output), then snow threat also shifts much further S).

Lol, how long have been posting here Ian. You should know now as soon as there's a whiff of snow all logic goes out of the window. Merry Xmas to you and your family by the way.
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Only trouble is, we are no closer to expressing confidence re outcome versus where we were 24hrs ago...UKMO go for track somewhere halfway-house between their 00z and 12z GM. Arpege looks essentially similar. But this saga will run to wire, with very fine thresholds to discriminate PPN type (thus ignore e.g. GFS snow charts, but I'd hope most people already do anyway until T+12 hrs!!)

 

You've got a much larger data set than I do so its nice to have your insight. The EURO4 has just updated and highlights the uncertainty with a definite southerly track.

 

 post-8968-0-66327300-1419464243_thumb.gi

 

Bit of a mess, I'm not convinced a southerly track would bring copious amounts of snow to the south. Looks to marginal. The further north the low tracks the better (depending how you look at things).

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You've got a much larger data set than I do so its nice to have your insight. The EURO4 has just updated and highlights the uncertainty with a definite southerly track.

 

 attachicon.gif14122618_2418 (1).gif

 

Bit of a mess, I'm not convinced a southerly track would bring copious amounts of snow to the south. Looks to marginal. The further north the low tracks the better (depending how you look at things).

 

The Net Weather NetWx- SR/MR model has just updated singing the same tune as its previous output.

 

post-8968-0-97801400-1419465580_thumb.pn SR

 

post-8968-0-40129800-1419465596_thumb.pn MR

Edited by Cheese Rice
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Well i am shocked by the doom tonight, was expecting all models to show a very flat pattern yet i see some great runs, GFS 18Z ensembles only have a few flat members with the rest with varying degrees of cold blocked weather, just a few days ago there wasn't much chance of any type of cold for next week now we have plenty of interest.

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The updated MetO +120 fax chart is interesting as the 528 dam line is as far south as Rome and Sardinia in Europe but well north of the Arctic Circle in Greenland, Indeed it's off the map!

Does that count as WAA in the Greenland area?

Crazy charts again and FI begins at +96 max.

Andy

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merry Christmas all. I don't post in here as they would just get moved with my level of knowledge but just want to say love reading the exchanges on the models so all have a great one and look forward to learning more from you all next year.

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First post, and until I get to grips with these models, the last post for a while! Just want to say thank-you to you all ( especially frosty! ) for such addictive reading and viewing, here's to another fantastic year on the best weather forum on the net... Happy Christmas!!!!!

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Hi everyone, been reading these posts for years and been a member for a while, just want to say thanks for all the time other put in to create a great thing to read. And a message to Frosty, keep the faith dude! you crack me up.

Happy Christmas and heres to a few flakes here and there over the next few days! :)

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Oh well, another white christmas bet down the drain. Second year in a row that the winnings were in touching distance for the Newcastle station being only hours from paying out at 6/1 from mid November, but I'll still be glued to the radar maps in between today's festivities hoping for a speck of the pink stuff over Albemarle weather station, 200m above sea level and near east coast so fingers and toes crossed. At midnight showed sleet showers only a few miles away.

Close but probably no cigar, but yet again fascinating watching the winter unfurl and seeing some of our winter regulars and exceedingly good posters.

Merry Christmas to the Mods who work overtime at this time of year and may everyone have a merry and safe Christmas

Edited by geordiekev
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Merry Xmas to all and I hope everyone asked Santa for a big Greenland warming!

Have a great day and may Aberdeen see some snowfall so that the bet I've had on since late October comes in!

SK

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Just managed to have a few minutes break from wrapping all the crimbo presents to wish you all a happy Christmas and a prosperous new year,buy heck this year has flown :smiliz23:

 

all though it won't be a white Christmas for the most of us bar a few wintry fleets in the NW wind ,it certainly will feel seasonal which will be a bonus from the crud we had last year,this time last year our wintry/snowy hopes where fading fast,but this winter it is a lot more seasonal,please santa deliver that huge sack of presies,i meen snow this winter :smiliz19:

as for the models,there is plenty to talk about,shortwave/low dropping sse then a NE er maybe followed by a easterly with high preasure hopefully parking over scandi and sustaining an easterly flow over the uk,what more can you wish for :w00t:

 

have fun everyone,it has been another great year of model watching whether it be spring convective showers/storms/summer heat/autumn storms to looking for cold from late autumn,never a dull moment in here :D

 

stay safe peeps.

 

 

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Got to laugh at some people on this forum. Just last night a lot of you were saying we are guaranteed an easterly. Today the same people are saying we are not. Kinda confusing to newbies and people who can't read charts. I don't know why people are analyzing charts that are outwith 5 days. The next 4 days are going to be cold pretty much everywhere in the UK, after that we will just need to see what happens

Edited by meathead
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Got to laugh at some people on this forum. Just last night a lot of you were saying we are guaranteed an easterly. Today the same people are saying we are not. Kinda confusing to newbies and people who can't read charts. I don't know why people are analyzing charts that are outwith 5 days. The next 4 days are going to be cold pretty much everywhere in the UK, after that we will just need to see what happens

Im also a newbie..i just try to follow certain posters..maybe i could suggest Gibby for a totally

Unbiased view..others include nick sussex, TEITS, steve murr and Tamara (i understand her even less) but its a good education..

Don't panic anyway regarding the easterly being touted..according to the BBC weather forecast, anything after boxing day is up for grabs..they still haven't got the incoming low pressure narrowed down to where it will eventually

Depart from our little island..

Apologies to anybody i haven't included in my respected peer list as i know everyone on here is more learned than me..

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GFS, GFS (p), UKMO all show quick collapsing ridge and sinking block with the jet running over the top at the mid term.

 

gfsnh-0-144.pnggfsnh-0-144.pngUN144-21.GIF

 

So not much joy there I'm afraid but at least UKMO might offer a second bite of the cherry if the upstream was more favourable.

 

GFS singing; "We wish you a merry Christmas and a zonal new year!"

 

gfsnh-0-240.png?0

 

GFS (p) actually goes on to produce a New Years day storm.

 

gfs-0-186.png?0

 

GEM singing form the same hymn sheet I'm afraid

 

gemnh-0-174.png?00

 

Personally I think the output is laughable and FI is about 72h but we will see.

 

Anyway no point in getting too hung up about it and we still have some seasonal cold to come with snow chances boxing day and some frosts.

Edited by Mucka
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