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Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas


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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Let's hope the ECM will give us a early Christmas present and not a scoorge run.

 

 

ECM not feeling festive this evening.....Humbug........Humbug!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Some quite bizarre goings on upstream. The ECM and GFS flatten the pattern out which is in stark contrast to what NCEP expected only this morning.

 

Because of this low heights and the PV are pushed much closer to the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Pocklington E/yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Love snow
  • Location: Pocklington E/yorkshire

Possible missing data from the 12zs...well someone had to start it

is that the ecm your on about ??
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Ecm has fridays low futher south aswell!! I really do think if this carries on then the midlands and east anglia will get into the act with some significant snowfall!!

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.

Best PNG File and in the short term :smiliz19:

 

post-6879-0-18703700-1419447333_thumb.pn

 

 

Will be "home" in between Ambleside and Windermere on Boxing Day - should be interesting

staggering out of the Sun Hotel at 9pm.

 

This looks bonkers at T+183

 

post-6879-0-30964800-1419447613_thumb.pn

 

 

All the Best -  and watch where your putting your feet.

 

Ian

Edited by Iceaxecrampon
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

ECM not being cheery, hope mild outlier, surely atlantic cannot power through like that, other models look better for inversion cold

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Well we've seen failed northerlies and we've seen failed easterlies. But if tonight's ECM is right, then this might top them all - a failed northerly AND a failed easterly for exactly the same day! 

ECM from last Saturday - forecast model for 29th December:

ECM1-216.GIF?24-0

Now last night:

ECM1-144.GIF?24-0

And tonight!

ECM1-120.GIF?24-0

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Notice the GFS changes to the PV in three days on the 12z: post-14819-0-45704800-1419446963_thumb.p post-14819-0-91939200-1419446962_thumb.p

 

Then compare to the ECM on the 12z from D5-8:  post-14819-0-21105200-1419447025_thumb.p post-14819-0-38372600-1419447819_thumb.p

 

It looks an outside chance that everything can fall right for cold when the upstream is so dire. Based on the last month it is unlikely that the PV will rest over N.Canada/Greenland but it is enough to make a cold uk pattern unlikely at the moment if that verifies. However this is a big change from this morning so maybe a change tomorrow? GEM built a polar high around that time and split the flow of lower heights: 

 

post-14819-0-28883500-1419447600_thumb.p  post-14819-0-55899900-1419447621_thumb.p  Rather unlikely as there is little support on the GEFS.

 

So as the mean suggests a sinking high remains the most likely outcome as we get a spurt from the PV.

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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Posted
  • Location: Pocklington E/yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Love snow
  • Location: Pocklington E/yorkshire

Was tongue in cheek due to an ongoing myth of missing data over Xmas going back to year . On here

Orite I see lol :)

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Step away from the drink! You don't have to do this to yourself!

 

JMA will put some in a giddy mood

 

J192-21.GIF?24-12

omg that is awesome.A real arctic blast heading our way soon afterwards.please verify .and give evryone on here a very happy christmas :)

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Was tongue in cheek due to an ongoing myth of missing data over Xmas going back to year . On here

Yes this myth started quite a few years ago because around Christmas the outputs started throwing out less cold solutions when before hand I think the outputs looked colder. Soon after the cold spell magically came back. I would say however that depending on the types of synoptics less flight data might been an issue especially in areas that already suffer from low returns.

 

Oh dear I think I've just fed the "myth", who knows unless we can find some concrete evidence then it's hard to say either way.

 

We wouldn't probably notice much if any difference if the outputs were just in full zonal mode but perhaps that drop in flight data sent both the ECM and GFS over the edge into their Scroogelike output!

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

Well we've seen failed northerlies and we've seen failed easterlies. But if tonight's ECM is right, then this might top them all - a failed northerly AND a failed easterly for exactly the same day! 

ECM from last Saturday - forecast model for 29th December:

ECM1-216.GIF?24-0

Now last night:

ECM1-144.GIF?24-0

And tonight!

ECM1-120.GIF?24-0

That's a great post. It really does feel like the cold switch is being continually being turned off for the uk!

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

John hammond on the beeb just mentioned boxing day possible snow, not sure which regions will get it?

even didnt  know  him self!!

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Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, NZ
  • Weather Preferences: Many
  • Location: Christchurch, NZ

So as the mean suggests a sinking high remains the most likely outcome as we get a spurt from the PV.

 

Even if a cold high gets established over the UK after the weekend?  Could it really be pushed aside so easily?  I'm genuinely asking, but it doesn't seem to me like it would just be like that.

 

The PV revival in the models has come about rather quickly.

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Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria

In the mid-long term the models are awful and the new year starts as bad as it could, ECM spells out the likely scenario as the UK High becomes a Euro entrenched Bartlett.

Not looking good at all IMO.

Andy

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

Yea if the St. Stephen's Day low keeps getting pushed south there is a chance of some snow to low levels in the midlands/central England, especially with the heavy nature of the precipitation. However, it will likely be hilly areas that are the ones affected as the airmass just isn't that cold, however as I alluded to the heavy precipitation and potential evaporative cooling could allow for snow to fall to low levels.

One to watch for certain, with the risk increasingly moving south.

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

i  know  its  xmas this  should give  the u.k. a nice present  pity  its  f1  but what the heck!!

post-4629-0-79712200-1419448641_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Well we've seen failed northerlies and we've seen failed easterlies. But if tonight's ECM is right, then this might top them all - a failed northerly AND a failed easterly for exactly the same day! 

ECM from last Saturday - forecast model for 29th December:

ECM1-216.GIF?24-0

Now last night:

ECM1-144.GIF?24-0

And tonight!

ECM1-120.GIF?24-0

 

It shows nicely how the detail can change from run to run but lets be honest though, its a pretty similar chart in respect it will be quite cold and mostly dry with high pressure toppling into the UK. 

 

I thought the ECM looked decent upto 120 hours and then things did seem like falling apart somewhat. I do firmly believe any easterly is a firm outsider at present, only tentative signs that we may see an easterly but who knows. 

 

Cold, dry and frosty weather to come, any snow potential detail is quite sketchy although it seems snowfall should not really be too much of an issue here. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

i  know  its  xmas this  should give  the u.k. a nice present  pity  its  f1  but what the heck!!

 

tinybill, rain for all, but fantasy, total FI

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

That's a great post. It really does feel like the cold switch is being continually being turned off for the uk!

 

All to do with upcoming low from the west -( UKM O   and north west - ECM) and how rapidly it deepens.. GFS - still north.

 

If it doesn't deepen it stays south and gives more people  snow in the short-term, but loses the cold signal quite quickly.

Or deepens more rapidly and pumps up  the heights to the west of us, little snow, but gives us a good prospect of long-term cold.

 

So it seems as if we can have one but not both. Sods law.

 

However there must be an intermediate way which gives us both?

 

Can we find it-----

 

MIA

 

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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