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Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas


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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

GFS ens

gens-21-1-192.png?12

Support some sort of high over Northern Europe and a light continental feed, 850s are not particularly cold but the surface temperatures are (low single figures for most)

well compared to the op the mean has more of a continental feed and with the high further north!!! Didn't expect to see that!! Which means the op was too progressive! !
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Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl

Anybody else watching ECM roll out from behind the sofa?? Whisky in one hand Prozac in the other.....come on ECM give us a run that's a cracker.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Whats changed????

This mornings chart for midday Saturday

PPVL89.png

This afternoons

PPVK89.png

Lots of changes on the UK profile the main one being the quicker track of the Atlantic low.

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl

ECM is slightly different to the UKMO at 96

 

UW96-21.GIF?24-18

 

ECM1-96.GIF?24-0

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

is that good or bad?

 

 

Check the 528 line.

My reading would be;

The second is less wet, less windy and displaces less cold air with the warm sector suppressed further SW as the shortwave develops less and pushes through quicker on a more Southerly track.

Better for snow chances for NW England and that is all that matters right?  :wink:

:acute:

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Crawley
  • Location: Crawley

Check the 528 line.

My reading would be;

The second is less wet, less windy and displaces less cold air with the warm sector suppressed further SW as the shortwave develops less and pushes through quicker on a more Southerly track.

Better for snow chances for NW England and that is all that matters right?  :wink:

:acute:

thanks mate :)

Merry christmas everyone

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London

Am I right in thinking that little ENE direction curve over the southeast shown on ECM at 13.00hours 28th could give us some wintryness?

ECM is slightly different to the UKMO at 96

 

UW96-21.GIF?24-18

 

ECM1-96.GIF?24-0

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl

Am I right in thinking that little ENE direction curve over the southeast shown on ECM at 13.00hours 28th could give us some wintryness?

 

 

I should think so.. Fergie would be the best person to ask, or if someone has the ecm precipitation chart? 

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

The long term is look very interesting, disregarding the upcoming potential for a wintry mix across the UK.

 

The signs are that the polar vortex will to some extend split... which will leave us in a great position come early January, could be a very cold spell mid-month.

 

Hopefull the signal continues and we get on the right side of the blocking.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey

ECM sweeps mild SWs into Scandinavia by t168, which just 48 hours earlier was in the middle of a brutal freeze. I'm 99% certain that this is complete nonsense (based on seeing the model do this numerous times incorrectly on previous occasions). Basically ignore anything after around 72 hours in this kind of scenario as it will probably change.

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Posted
  • Location: Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything even slightly exciting & less Vanilla.
  • Location: Kent

Am I right in thinking that little ENE direction curve over the southeast shown on ECM at 13.00hours 28th could give us some wintryness?

 

Thames streamer territory perhaps which I think Gravesend has done well of but pressure not particularly low nor isobars very close to get much I would think. May get the odd flurry

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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

Something Big is afoot, no, not Bigfoot, something Bigger than that..our first cold spell of the winter is evolving as I type this. Tonight's GEFS 12z mean gives us a tiny glimpse of the future, and that future is COLD..take a look, it turns colder by the day so that during next week some areas won't rise above freezing due to freezing fog but also helped by an initial snow cover which will make overnight temperatures nose dive well below zero celsius....so..frosty winds will make moan, earth will become hard as iron, water like a stone..

 

..I think therefore I am.... very excited about the outlook.

 

Merry Christmas to all the friendly hard working contributors / moderators who help to make Netweather the BEST weather forum on planet earth, and thanks to Paul, among others for building a FANTASTIC site..cheers to all of you, eat, drink and be very merry :smiliz19:  :w00t: and watch for even more wintry weather during January as we reach the cold heart of winter 2014 / 15 :smiliz19:

 

Step away from the drink! You don't have to do this to yourself!

 

JMA will put some in a giddy mood

 

J192-21.GIF?24-12

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

ECM not in be festive mood this evening, high sinking at 144. Mediterranean low drifting to fat east towards Greece.

 

Yeah GEM and UKMO to lesser extent are the best output for coldies.

But wait...

 

JMA also links heights up to NE

 

JN156-21.GIF?24-12

 

Propping up the high and undercut incoming!

 

JN192-21.GIF?24-12

 

Let's hope JMA is on the right track and we see more of this or better tomorrow.

 

By the way that 192 JMA chart smacks of icy Easterly and snow for SE incoming followed by retrogression of high to Greenland.

 

Edit.

Posted same chart instead of 192, now corrected.

Hi res Op run of the winter do far for me as  far as prolonged cold being modelled is concerned.

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

After the short cold blast boxing day ete it looks to me that a mlb will form atm.The pv to the north and north west looks to strong atm but all may change into jan.Anyway merry xmas and a great new year to you all :smiliz64:  :smiliz64:

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

This reminds me of that nightmare balloon video where the balloon never makes it quite over the power lines.

 

What was supposed to be a big North Sea windstorm is now looking like snow on the vines. Good King Wenceslas look out.

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

I've got to say, this seems like yet another anti climax! That blasted pv over north east Canada will just not give up, similar to last winter in that respect.

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