Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas

[Daniel*]

Joe B's tweet: 5 day means ending 00z Jan4 for Europe, US.. Winter going on the attack It can be like tweet high street in here I apologise. Since his not battered a eyelid till now you see the potential...

[hec1]

Much as there is an overall improvement at 192 on the GFS (Op, P and Control) there is not much support in the ensemble.

OP

gfs-0-192.png

 

P

gfs-0-192 (1).png

 

Control

gens-0-1-192.png

 

Ensemble mean

gens-21-1-192.png

 

and spread - op and control outliers

 

graphe3_1000_288_104___.gif

Only one post about that, Stewy?

At the END of the day , no one is wiser and better , they are only Computer image ... STICK TO RAW DATA -Ukmo ... Said it many times ago , And what happens .. admin deletes my post ... says a lot to them and some others who say it is going to get Cold .. yeh it will  and better than last year and the year b4 .... watch and listen ... to me ...Newyear is going to throwback a serious Snow fest .... how i know ...i have  the Knowledge of knowing how the pattern works .as for you all you are scare monger's ..... learn from me and not from them ...

pmfsl u on the alcohol my welsh friend xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

[Mucka]

UKMO really not up to much again this morning other than storminess. 

 

 

 

GFS Op is a little better than recent efforts though

 

 

And parallel not as amplified as previous run but still drags in enough cold air for a shot at some snow falling

 

 

So GFS still modelling a brief cold snap next weekend with a chance of snow but UKMO likely wouldn't even give us that with the closed flow.

Plenty could change throughout the day and GFS FI, ECM and GEM to come.

Could get interesting.

 

Edited December 22, 2014 by Mucka

[Mucka]

Well GFS FI ultimately fails but it gets close to a decent set up by throwing the ridge toward Scandi and almost linking up with the Siberian high.

 

 

Could be a way to salvage the situation if the ridge is going to collapse.

 

Edit

And what have we here? Parallel getting interesting again in FI after looking pretty flat by the end of hi res.

 

 

So many plot twists it is hard to keep up but at least it keeps the output worth viewing.

BTW with that ridge forming over us after the cold air has been pulled in it would probably remain quite chilly with a slack continental feed.

Edited December 22, 2014 by Mucka

[SMU]

The GFS (p) is the best run of the winter & to be fair the op was trying a similar route very much in tandem with the very cold EPS members from the ECM last night -

UKMO / gem poor.

More runs needed.....

To get any sustsined cold look for secondary ridging NNE in the atlantic around 168-180

S

[Matty M]

Again this morning there is very large model divergence, although there has been a move away from then intense storm scenario.

And there has perhaps been an increase in the cold potential.

 

An interesting time for model watching.

Edited December 22, 2014 by Matty M

[keithlucky]

Stll there the wintery blast for the 27th Dec hope this chart verifys we deserve to see a rare weather event called snow!

Edited December 22, 2014 by keithlucky

[snowangel32]

Stll there the wintery blast for the 27th Dec hope this chart verifys we deserve to see a rare weather event called snow!

Looks like a good chart but rain or snow that is the question on the ukmo it would be rain on the gfsp snow and the gfs a mix, Also looks a tad further north surely we want it as far south as we can get it to keep the cold uppers in place. But to my naked eye it seems to be trending north hope that dosent continue. Even at this time frame so much uncertainty surely there has to be some kind of agreement today. Place your bets now please.

Edited December 22, 2014 by snowangel32

[snowice]

ECM HAS DROPED THE BLOW TOURCH,EAST/NORTHEAST AT 144,

[Abyss]

Massive flip from the ecm it's farcical. Hard to put any faith in to any run with all the chopping and changing lol

ecm 144

[Long haul to mild]

ECM dives next weekend's low into southern Europe, introducing a NE feed and some decent cold uppers for a short time. Some tentative attempts at heights to Scandi but the jet looks like it's going to stop it getting further North and West where we would like HP to be?

Certainly no Greenland high in sight though!

Edited December 22, 2014 by Long haul to mild

[TobyT]

 

ECM now shows a totally different outcome,you couldn't make it up I have never know so many mixed signals and to be honest I just cant say what we will be getting this coming weekend all I can say is it looks interesting and I feel something is brewing, I am keeping a check on hight rises to the NE as I have a feeling this is where we may well be heading, the models have been hinting at this for a few days now as shown on the GFS P 

 

Edited December 22, 2014 by TobyT

[IDO]

 A big step back from medium term wintry outlook from the GEFS today. I hope it is not a sign of whats coming. The Pacific Ridge formation is now consistently been eased east and no longer looks to act as a block and is merely a mid latitude wave. That will aid the amplification downstream (Atlantic ridge) but it cannot last as the Pacific jet wipes all the amplification from upstream. The GFS op, C and mean highlights the resurgence of the PV at D16:

 

  

 

ECM is also toppling the Pacific Ridge by D10: 

 

GEM doesn't topple the Pacific ridge, shortwaves kill the WAA. Hence we don't get the wave and the UK sector loses that ridge potential as seen by the other models:

 

 

This will no doubt have trop and strat repercussions, and although it is a strong signa, lets hope its a blip, otherwise January could be a long month. 

 

As for the storm/Northerly this weekend, a move by ECM is welcome, but the GEFS only have 50% going with the Saturday evolution but most slide SE/S. The op and C (and P) look the best case scenarios compared to the ensembles, and no improvement in the chances of snow for the south, still about 10%:

 

 

With the models struggling at the moment hopefully all change by the 12z re the further outlook.

Edited December 22, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[Jason M]

Better output this morning!

GFSP is a nice cold run all the way out into FI, and the main GFS run looks good until it hits low res and quickly goes zonal. Hints that pressure may rise to our North now (doesn't need to be massive either) which would be logical given the big storm that's due to drop a cross us.

If this forces the jet South rather than across Greenland we may be in the game.

GEFS are still rubbish but in this sort of scenario it's the higher res opp runs that will lead the way. Hopefully this trend will get built on further during the day.

[BlakeyWeather]

 

Very nice end to the parallel, can we get some energy underneath the block thats forecast after this weeks storm/brief N'erly? 

[Jason M]

Hi IDO

The GEFS have been dire for several days so nothing much has changed there tbh. Just look how the opp run goes zonal as soon as it hits low res again (just like last night).

I use GEFS a lot tbh, but I think right now they are and will be largely useless for a day or so. They could still be right of course, but it will be luck rather than judgement in this instance.

Edited December 22, 2014 by Jason M

[bluearmy]

Heads....... No, tails ..........no, heads........ Doh!

it may look off topic but it's probably the closest thing to good advice that you'll see on here this morning !

go back to bed, go to work, do the cleaning, the shopping, make that call to someone you care about. But don't, please don't bother to waste any of your precious time of the NWP until the 12z come out

Mind you, a very positive strat forecast from the Berlin site.

[Abyss]

IDO we don't need S.W to get cold you know. That was such a negative post lol. 

[Captain Shortwave]

Day 6 charts

ECM

Big change with a cold north easterly developing bringing wintry showers to eastern areas as the cold front clears. Attempt at a Scandi high formation in week 2.

 

UKMO

No real cold snap to be honest, a brief north westerly, but upstream doesn't look as menacing.

 

GFS

Northerly developing, then followed by a UK high but another one which tries to develop heights to our north east.

 

Parallel

Best run of the morning, coldest Arctic blast and also develops heights to our north east 

 

GEM

Pretty much diddly squat cold wise, a mobile westerly pattern exists from day 1 all the way to day 10.

 

So again a lot of uncertainty, especially as the ECM has had a major change of heart. I really don't have a clue beyond the mainly fine and dry Boxing day. One thing I will say is Jason M's Scandi high idea has suddenly developed legs.

Edited December 22, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Polar Maritime]

Much better Northerly showing for around the 28th, Also TEITS Easterly has cropped up.. Over all still lot's of uncertainty, But some much colder and promising solutions are showing for this morning.

 

Edited December 22, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[MR EXTREMES]

well theres certainly chances of snow in the next five days or so i think the massive flip by the ecm could be telling us that nothing beyond that is certain.

one thing is for sure -6 to -8 uppers would be enough for some snow even in the south.

 

and not much blowtorch sw being shown now.......

 

but as spotted the vortex does not look like its going to give up without a fight and its winning but the charts are looking worse for jan which is not good when a week ago things look far more sustained at times and colder.

 

although high pressure over the uk in jan is not the end of the world just means more of winter ticking away.

 

but from what ive seen id think anywhere across the uk could see some form of wintry weather over the christmas period.

to be honest i was expecting worse still pretty pants but better than last year.

this cold spell has been a nightmare.

[John Snow]

Impossible not to look past the GFS(P) tbh

It was the first model that detected the storm of the 27th and it has been stable and consistent, the ECM has flip flopped and dithered, The UKMO has shown one thing one day something else the next, if I was a betting man I would say odds of GFS (P) being the winner here are odds on

[Woollymummy]

Just a question, when do sea temperatures around the UK and land temperatures normally match each other? Is this chart unusual for this time of year?

[chris55]

"To me, to you, to me, to you"

Chuckle brothers running the Nwp this morning ha. but a positive step for a cold potential as we stand this morning

[Nick L]

Just a question, when do sea temperatures around the UK and land temperatures normally match each other? Is this chart unusual for this time of year?

 

These are neither land/sea temperatures, they're the air temperature at 2m (I think) above the sea/land. But in such a windy and mild set up such parity is to be expected really, plenty of mixing going on!