Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas

[bluearmy]

Second ECM control run on the trot to show a very cold, fairly snowy easterly for debilt. Think this forum would have gone in to meltdown if the op had shown this scenario.

Not snowy but cold via the persistent block to our east. By the very end, we see the Atlantic trough attempting to push into nw Europe from the sw. Would imagine that will be interesting but at two weeks it won't pan out that way.

That's very much the extended ens mean and anomoly view aswell

edit: just checked the control uppers and they are above freezing heading through week 2 so no chance of anything white from the trough pushing in. The block centred too far south to pull in anything cold upper wise though surface cold likely

Edited December 24, 2014 by bluearmy

[Frosty.]

Second ECM control run on the trot to show a very cold, fairly snowy easterly for debilt. Think this forum would have gone in to meltdown if the op had shown this scenario.

I love the idea of netweather forum melting down while the UK is gripped by a big freeze..poetry in motion. After last night's sensational upturn in wintry prospects, its such a relief to see the momentum gathering speed this morning..what a bonus Christmas present this is.

[Paul_1978]

Off topic but will the met office be working on Xmas day? or do no models and forecasts and warnings come out?

Of course they will. The weather doesn't stop for Christmas!!!

[Anti-Mild]

i know it's just the 6z, but it'll be interesting to see if the trends for heights to our NE remains, and also if the tendency for further drifting off in a NE'ly direction is maintained. Whatever happens htis place is going to be buzzing come 4pm!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Every hour of every day.

You guys aren't working hard enough for that easterly Ian...come on!!

 

Ok a quickie from me, I envisaged for Jan a flow alternating from SW to SE with block to our east.  My general thoughts were that the block wouldn't be influential enough but that there is a possibility that the cold could take hold [a caveat] and consolidated thought as per RJS mentioned a week ago or so.  I also mentioned recently that we need to probably look east for our cold and not NW and that remains.  Models now projecting this big block to our east....so the game is on.  When coupled with Ed and Tony's forecast and those very encouraging strat signs.....every chance that the easterly set up will occur and strengthen.

Now that's torn it, but its looking good for a start after the storm drops SSE 

Just in case I don't get on.....Merry Christmas NW community and to your families

 

 

BFTP

Edited December 24, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Summer Sun]

After a wet and windy weekend with some snow possible for some next week is shown to settle down with high pressure dominating so its likely to be cooler by day with frost and fog overnight some of the fog could linger well into the day in some spots and if it did temperatures could really struggle

 

Before the weekend Friday could bring some snow for higher ground

 

[Gustywind]

Still think further improvements are needed to get something really interesting and snowy for our shores (for England at least).

Yesterday I thought we'd end up with high pressure on top of the UK, slowly sinking as we head into January, as the jet rides over the top of the high and low heights in the Med, slowly erode. Net result some dry weather, but becoming steadily milder, 7-10 days of prime winter wasted from a snow perspective.

Thanks to strat developments I'm more hopeful now that the above scenario may not come to pass, we may instead get the high trending northwards as the vortex weakens, enabling us to tap into a proper easterly feed.

I'm hoping the next day or so adds further weight to that scenario.

[kumquat]

Even at T90 on the GFS 6Z the Low centre is 200 miles further west than on its previous run

 

 

Previous run for T96

 

Edited December 24, 2014 by kumquat

[Matty M]

A bit of a cheeky upgrade of the easterly from the GFS

 

[Anti-Mild]

I would love to see a proper midwinter E'ly, coming to us straight from the heart of Russia, something I don't think we've had since Jan 1987.

 

Feb 1991 had one like that, so did November 1993 but they didn't have the same depth of cold pool to draw from.

 

The jet is weaker to our north on this run, might prove interesting at around +180 onwards!

Edited December 24, 2014 by Anti-Mild

[karlos1983]

could be wrong, but it looks like to much energy going over the block rather than under to hold up the heights over Scandinavia on this run. 

[cornish snow]

I would love to see a proper midwinter E'ly, coming to us straight from the heart of Russia, something I don't think we've had since Jan 1987.

 

Feb 1991 had one like that, so did November 1993 but they didn't have the same depth of cold pool to draw from.

Jan 87,only time iv'e seen proper snow in 40 years of living here,certainly the holy grail.

[Joe Levy]

The GFS(P) is showing a northerly correction, meaning that colder uppers reach the east coast 

Edited December 24, 2014 by Joe Levy

[Downpour]

The Breakfast Run follows the Pub Run. Arguably a slightly more favourable tilt to the low on Sunday for members in the S/E.

 

One to watch. 

 

Interested to see how the Office handle the developments.

 

Usually at this juncture we get the cold but dry comments coming into the board – the rule being that you need the colder air first and then snow can potentially pop up anywhere as little disturbances brush the edge of the high. 

[Captain Shortwave]

GFS op looks similar to the previous run

So turning colder with some frosts before the Atlantic asserts an influence to the north west of the UK, rest of the UK should remain fine.

 

Parallel

Scattered snow showers for coastal areas of England. The most notable thing developing here will be hard or even severe frosts and freezing fog.

-12C isotherm getting into Kent later on

Edited December 24, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

-8c 850 air coming into England. WTF is there not to be happy about on xmas eve :-)

Temps below or only a few degress above freezing in most places.

All this isn't to far in the realms of la la land either. PLENTY to be pleased about other than santa coming tomorrow :-)

-12c air now clips the Kent coast Brrrrrrrrrrrrr

Edited December 24, 2014 by No Balls Like Snow Balls

[Buxton Codge]

Great output this morning with a return to much colder weather and a chance of some snow for all :smiliz19:

 

This will cheer you up - 16c (61F) in Washington DC today! Not just the UK missing out

[Downpour]

-8c 850 air coming into England. WTF is there not to be happy about on xmas eve :-)

gfs-1-138.png

Certainly a very seasonal picture No Balls Like Snow Balls

[mountain shadow]

Fascinating model watching. With the development of the Scandi High, it then becomes a race to see whether it can become cut off before the Atlantic attacks.

 

If it is cut off the Atlantic will shear underneath and prolong the cold, the energy goes over the top then its a sinker. Won't be another couple of days before that's resolved I think.

 

With the serious atmospheric pressure on the vortex, I would favour the former over the latter.

[stewfox]

Seems to me that the trop/strat coupling over the next few days is quite sensitive and varying feed backs could lead to some weird and wonderful fi solutions. The old chestnut 'don't trust the models at Xmas' will be wheeled out with no strong evidence to support such a view. However, we will be missing some flight data tomorrow and there are areas upstream and to our nw which are important (eg the depression that sinks across us at the weekend is forming in a region with sparse recordings and maybe flight data could be significant) and may lead to some runs which are questionable (Xmas day 12z and Boxing Day 00z perhaps?).

 

This comes up every year.

 

I thought there isn’t  less data globally and only 3% less over major routes over Atlantic and hence no impact on model accuracy ??

[4wd]

I would love to see a proper midwinter E'ly, coming to us straight from the heart of Russia, something I don't think we've had since Jan 1987.

 

Feb 1991 had one like that, so did November 1993 but they didn't have the same depth of cold pool to draw from.

 

The jet is weaker to our north on this run, might prove interesting at around +180 onwards!

It won't be as cold now as mid-late Feb or even March - e.g. 2013

[Eugene]

Parallel please, much less risk scenario.

[Jason M]

Another baby step North with the high on both the 06 opp and P run. Just one more little nudge this evening and things get interesting. Seems slightly less energy going North this morning over the high.

Very cold set up (especially, but not exclusively for the SE) with ice days on the P run but essentially fairly dry. Thames estuary might not be a bad place to be for some cheeky lake effect flurries.

More changes to come for better or worse methinks! Good to see a very measured forum this morning, should be a good few days ahead with a bit more interest.

[inghams85]

Evidence of mid term upgrades is all to see on the 06zp! As stated watch the scandinavian high trend further north on west as t-0 approaches upgrading the cold from the east!

[bluearmy]

This comes up every year.

 

I thought there isn’t  less data globally and only 3% less over major routes over Atlantic and hence no impact on model accuracy ??

I don't subscribe to if stew but there are less flights Xmas day and I wondered if the area where the depression is forming could be one which usually benefits from flight data ?