Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor

At D9 and D10 it is the coldest member within the ensemble. Even though it has a small cluster support it does this so many times and they never verify you have to make a judgement call and on past performances it is most likely an outlier. For the same reason when it was showing 13c for the 28th December a couple of days ago I called it an outlier even though it was within a small cluster:

 

attachicon.gifensemble-tt6-london.gif  Current forecast for 29th is now 9c lower :oops:

Will be interesting to see the ensembles this evening for ECM

Edited by prolongedSnowLover
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl

this evenings GFS is even quicker than the last at flattening the pattern and only one way of going and that is a azores blowtorch grim for all coldies out there

 

gfs-0-144.png?12?12

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport

I'd disagree, quite significant differences on those charts.

Ok so enlighten me to the differences?

Edited by No Balls Like Snow Balls
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Midlothian
  • Location: Midlothian

this evenings GFS is even quicker than the last at flattening the pattern and only one way of going and that is a azores blowtorch grim for all coldies out there

 

gfs-0-144.png?12?12

yes i agree. I just cant see anything in the output that suggest much else.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland

The UKMO at 120 hrs brings in an easterly, very interesting, the GFS is having none of it though

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014122312/UW120-21.GIF?23-17http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014122312/gfs-0-120.png?12

 

Strange to see such huge differences in the models is what is normally the semi-reliable time frame. I wonder what the ECM will do later. 

Edited by seabreeze86
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

The UKMO at 120 hrs brings in an easterly, very interesting, the GFS is having none of it though

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014122312/UW120-21.GIF?23-17http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014122312/gfs-0-120.png?12

 

GFS(P) trying it's very best!

gfsnh-0-126.png?12

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

About the best chart we could hope for at this point. I think I will leave at this point as still huge model disagreement.

 

UKM 120hr

 

UW120-21.GIF?23-17

 

 

In all the times I've seen the UKMO show that situation it has never happened in winter as nearer the time the low is over france and high pressure slacker winds are over the UK. I think it's a model issue with the UKMO it self

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

yes i agree. I just cant see anything in the output that suggest much else.

 

Erm...The UKMO perhaps?

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft

UKMO and GFS(Scrooge) at total loggerheads on Christmas Sunday. 

 

Again, UKMO wants to deliver snowfall to the S/E on a naughty easterly while GFS looks like she fancies a cheeky festive visit from Uncle Barty... 

 

Take your pick!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl

this evenings GFS is even quicker than the last at flattening the pattern and only one way of going and that is a azores blowtorch grim for all coldies out there

 

gfs-0-144.png?12?12

Thats a winter eater chart right there. Only consolation is GFS is renowned for wanting to flatten things overly quickly, almost like a default setting with that model.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

UKMO ends with a UK high at day 6 giving some hard frosts with cold uppers trapped in its circulation.

 

Could be good going forward as well.

 

post-2839-0-35169600-1419351984_thumb.gi

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

my bet would be placed with gfs....... i do hope im wrong. Where does one find the best place to view the ukmo?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&carte=1007&ech=120&archive=0 

 

I wouldn't go and put a bet on at the bookies if I were you on the GFS

Edited by karlos1983
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft

UKMO ends with a UK high at day 6 giving some hard frosts with cold uppers trapped in its circulation.

 

Could be good going forward as well.

 

attachicon.gifUW144-21.GIF

Yes. Great run. Of course it will be discounted by some members as it shows a cold solution. All to play for IMO.

 

Cliche warning.... All eyes on the ECM

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Is the GFSP now regarded better by the METO , especially short to mid range?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&carte=1007&ech=120&archive=0 

 

I wouldn't go and put a bet on at the bookies if I were you on the GFS

There will be some very red faces on here if the GFSo is proved wrong. We shall see...

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds

UKMO ends with a UK high at day 6 giving some hard frosts with cold uppers trapped in its circulation.

Could be good going forward as well.

attachicon.gifUW144-21.GIF

I would bank that chart right now, fantastic model watching at the moment.

Edited by shotski
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything even slightly exciting & less Vanilla.
  • Location: Kent

my bet would be placed with gfs....... i do hope im wrong. Where does one find the best place to view the ukmo?

 

 

Please give your reasoning... thanks dragan

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl

the GFS  parallele  is doing its best at setting up a easterly

gfs-0-144.png?12

but surley it aint possible with a huge mass of PV moving back in to eastern canada and greenland it doesnt look possible to me has it lost the plot

gfsnh-0-144.png?12

Edited by igloo
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...