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Captain Shortwave

Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas

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wow! there are some very bad storms in fi.. lets hope it doesn't end up like that. 

 

gfs-0-264.png?18

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ECM London ensembles not great, they were quite frigid at one stage.

 

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

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Well the strat's doing everything it can, now it's over to the trop to pull its finger out.

 

gfsnh-10-384.png?18

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wow! there are some very bad storms in fi.. lets hope it doesn't end up like that. 

 

gfs-0-264.png?18

 

 

 

 

 

11 days away!  It's very unlikely considering the models can't agree on weather that is 5 days away.

 

Anything beyond T+120 don't consider as actual likely weather. It is known as FI for a reason.

Edited by 'ColdIsBest'

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Quick question. Are the models showing a clear evening on Christmas Eve? Am hoping skys will be clear about 5:30pm so the kids can catch a glimpse of the ISS (doubling as Santa's sleigh!) over south Essex.

In short at moment looks good. Once the System clears away through the morning. The skies clear on much of the model output with Wind veering W-NW. So should be alright, keep looking at the models though as little changes could mean it stays cloudy for longer or Cloud rolls in from time to time.

Edited by Mark N

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ECM London ensembles not great, they were quite frigid at one stage.

 

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

Yes big turnaround - I'm a but disappointed with some of these longer range charts today, 2 days ago the ECM had a majority of members hovering close to zero for several days around New Year, and NOAA 8-14 dayer suggested a weak block in North Atlantic - today the ECM clustering is much milder long-term and the NOAA has suddenly shifted to raising heights thousands of miles away over Scandi! But are we done with these changes yet?...

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11 days away!  It's very unlikely considering the models can't agree on weather that is 5 days away.

 

Anything beyond T+120 don't consider as actual likely weather. It is known as FI for a reason.

 

 

Yeah agree, pointless to worry about it at this range...

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Yes big turnaround - I'm a but disappointed with some of these longer range charts today, 2 days ago the ECM had a majority of members hovering close to zero for several days around New Year, and NOAA 8-14 dayer suggested a weak block in North Atlantic - today the ECM clustering is much milder long-term and the NOAA has suddenly shifted to raising heights thousands of miles away over Scandi! But are we done with these changes yet?...

Long range charts are unreliable. They are just predictions, like next weeks winning lottery numbers.

 

Do you really know the exact weather in 2 days time?

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/30583805

Not even the met office knows whats going on , they have also posted 2 possible scenarios 1 providing lots of wind and rain another snow !

 

Yeah still clearly some uncertainty about the track of the low over the weekend, the 1st scenario looked more like the GFS route, while the 2nd looked liked the UKMO/ECM route. Really hope the GFS is wrong, and backtracks soon.

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/30583805

Not even the met office knows whats going on , they have also posted 2 possible scenarios 1 providing lots of wind and rain another snow !

 

That was a great forecast for me. Honest and keeping the public advised of the possibilities.

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Looking threw todays mo i think some are missing the big picture on the nh profile and esp the pv picking up and the nao goes neutral.there is a window of opp for a cold blast next weekend but nothing that can be sustained.looking at best like a mlb after imo with the pv going over the top or pushing in from the northwest.if you look east pressure as fallen so any push from there is a long time away.granted pressure may be forced towards scan but imo cant see baring a ssw or a neg nao bringing any joy threw jan;

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Well the strat's doing everything it can, now it's over to the trop to pull its finger out.

 

gfsnh-10-384.png?18

My problem with those that follow stratospheric going's on, is every time I see a chart posted, it seems to be 384hrs out. Are these warmings actually ever 'happening'?

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Ian, can you ask the Met Office to make a 06z and 18z UKMO? :smiliz19:

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Looking threw todays mo i think some are missing the big picture on the nh profile and esp the pv picking up and the nao goes neutral.there is a window of opp for a cold blast next weekend but nothing that can be sustained.looking at best like a mlb after imo with the pv going over the top or pushing in from the northwest.if you look east pressure as fallen so any push from there is a long time away.granted pressure may be forced towards scan but imo cant see baring a ssw or a neg nao bringing any joy threw jan;

 

I agree - Certainly nothing in current outputs to suggest a major pattern change to cold weather. Things looked rather promising for the Christmas period this time last week but as the time has approached, the cold has been watered down and delayed to a few days after Christmas.

 

Some areas look likely to see transient snowfall over the coming weekend (areas to be determined based on the tracking of low pressure) but beyond that, dry and chilly for a time as the ridge of high pressure collapses South-Eastwards over the UK followed by milder, wet weather from Atlantic low pressure systems.**

 

**Slim possibility that high pressure will build North into Scandinavia rather than fall South-Eastwards, but this currently isn't the favoured option. 

Edited by Daniel Smith

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I agree - Certainly nothing in current outputs to suggest a major pattern change to cold weather. Things looked rather promising for the Christmas period this time last week but as the time has approached, the cold has been watered down and delayed to a few days after Christmas.

 

Some areas look likely to see transient snowfall over the coming weekend (areas to be determined based on the tracking of low pressure) but beyond that, dry and chilly for a time as the ridge of high pressure collapses South-Eastwards over the UK followed by milder, wet weather from Atlantic low pressure systems.**

 

**Slim possibility that high pressure will build North into Scandinavia rather than fall South-Eastwards, but this currently isn't the favoured option. 

 

I don't think the cold has been delayed at all, the pattern is still the same of cold xmas period then milder boxing day with the chance of something colder afterwards.

 

The problem we have seen is at one stage we were worrying about a west based NAO and now we are looking at heights not sustaining and the PV powering up again and of course the other difference is the important detail with each run so some runs are showing something a bit more favorable for cold and others don't. 

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Easterlys often pop up at short notice....looking at the GFS and GFSP this evening would you bet against one appearing out of nowhere after Christmas?

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They do know all we *can* know: i.e., they know there are two most likely outcomes with essentially equal weighting at the time of recording. That's all we can know *presently*. John's graphics represent the two principal clusterings of track scenario from EC and MOGREPS. That's the only way of partitioning the possible outcomes to non-specialist viewers, especially as we aren't yet into formal warning territory... yet.

Thanks Fergie for the update. May sound a silly question but when is formal warning territory?. (Not a question to you directly just intrigued as to when certain triggers down the chain of command that may respond to such warnings)

Thanks to all that contribute in here I find it both addictive and informative.

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Thanks Fergie for the update. May sound a silly question but when is formal warning territory?. (Not a question to you directly just intrigued as to when certain triggers down the chain of command that may respond to such warnings)

Thanks to all that contribute in here I find it both addictive and informative.

Normally 5 days, so Monday-Friday, Tuesday - Saturday etc. 

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How does the warming event compare to that of 2010?

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Cannot believe the uncertainty of that low pressure system at such short range too. Tomorrow is when I'm going to start playing 'pin the tail on the donkey!' 

I think the centre of the low will cross through the Central belt of Scotland and then move down the East coast bringing the risk of snow on the wrap around of the system. 

This really is anybody's guess though! Never seen such a huge disagreement and confusion of the models like this ever before!

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