Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas

[lawrenk]

As a long time lurker I just wanted to say a big thanks to all those who contribute to this thread, whether mildies or coldies.

One of these days I'll feel I've learned enough to be able to post something of value but in the meantime keep up the good work chaps!

[Mark Neal.]

Chance of snow M4 Northwards.

12Z Euro4 coming out soon?! Wonder if that is in regard to Ian F tweet, though bbc were showing M4 northwards earlier on tv forecasts. So obviously other data showing this I guess. Hopefully Ian can pop in and update if he has a spare few mins.

[Matty M]

Wouldn't take too much to pull this into a sig snow event for central England

 

- Current thinking is it will be a >200m job for most.

 

 

[Frosty.]

Happy to see that no shortwaves will scupper the snow chances at this range, some areas may see 15 cm tomorrow, now remember a day or two ago there was no snow forecast from the met office but how things have changed due to the changing track of the low.. enjoy this unexpected treat.

Edited December 25, 2014 by Frosty.

[karlos1983]

12Z Euro4 coming out soon?! Wonder if that is in regard to Ian F tweet, though bbc were showing M4 northwards earlier on tv forecasts. So obviously other data showing this I guess. Hopefully Ian can pop in and update if he has a spare few mins.

It's still M4 north. Always the flipping way. I swear I'm going to relocate that motorway to the channel one of these days.

[Wilxy]

It's still M4 north. Always the flipping way. I swear I'm going to relocate that motorway to the channel one of these days.

 

I'm 1 mile south of M4 so all I need to do is get in the car go 2 miles north and bingo!

[karlos1983]

I'm 1 mile south of M4 so all I need to do is get in the car go 2 miles north and bingo!

Lol good for you

[Mark Neal.]

Anyone know what time the Euro4 updates?!

[Wilxy]

Lol good for you

 

You never know what can happen even at this range, enjoy Christmas and enjoy the weather we do get!

[swales]

Anyone know what time the Euro4 updates?!

17:00 UTC

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=prty&INFO=1

Edited December 25, 2014 by shaunwales

[Mark Parsons]

It's still M4 north. Always the flipping way. I swear I'm going to relocate that motorway to the channel one of these days.

Us on the south coast are always going to suffer this mate! However the models keep positioning this low further and further south it would seem so who knows??

[ReindeerMarmalade]

No snow forecast for the SE? Bah humbug.

Hope everyone's having a great day!

[Mark Neal.]

17:00 UTC

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=prty&INFO=1

Many thanks, The NAE used to update much earlier.

[Jackfrost]

At twelve miles north of and 150m higher than the M4, I'm still less than confident of seeing lying snow tomorrow, and certainly not more than a cm or two. The real action looks like occurring 200m+.

[snowice]

Well gfs p has snow for a while on east and north of Ireland at 1300 27th

[bigdog1]

I'm 1 mile south of M4 so all I need to do is get in the car go 2 miles north and bingo!

Yes thats all very well and you will find then that you are snowed in 2 miles from home LOL

[hec1]

is this the M4 thread?

[SMU]

So 12z updates

 

UKMO a smidge further south

 

THe GFS also now almost south of the M4 track wise

 

If you compare the 06z 42 V the 12z 36 another 50 mile jog south - The theta line is easiest to illustrate that-

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2014122506-6-42.png?6 06z

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014122512/gfs-6-36.png?12 12z

 

also at T108 the Theta E 10c line is another 200 miles west as opposed to the 06z... so pigeon steps forward

 

108

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014122512/gfs-6-108.png?12 12z

114 06z

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014122506/gfs-6-114.png?6

 

this is because the small shortwave developing is being progged to recurve further west.....

 

S

Edited December 25, 2014 by Steve Murr

[Swave Snow]

So 12z updates

 

UKMO a smidge further south

 

THe GFS also now almost south of the M4 track wise

 

If you compare the 06z 42 V the 12z 36 another 50 mile jog south - The theta line is easiest to illustrate that-

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2014122506-6-42.png?6 06z

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014122512/gfs-6-36.png?12 12z

 

also at T108 the Theta E 10c line is another 200 miles west as opposed to the 06z... so pigeon steps forward

 

108

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014122512/gfs-6-108.png?12 12z

114 06z

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014122506/gfs-6-114.png?6

 

this is because the small shortwave developing is being progged to recurve further west.....

 

S

 

 

So funny how Hoighlamds of Scotland froze up, but will see nothing from that unless convection from the north.  The models have changed drastically but seemed to have firmed up on this as the last few days have progressed.

 

Is there any chances of corrections northwards?

[SMU]

This is the shortwave that could track further west

 

 

S

So funny how Hoighlamds of Scotland froze up, but will see nothing from that unless convection from the north.  The models have changed drastically but seemed to have firmed up on this as the last few days have progressed.

 

Is there any chances of corrections northwards?

 

Ignore the first low that comes through the one to the north at T42 will bring you some snow

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2014122512/gfsnh-0-42.png?12

 

S

[Swave Snow]

This is the shortwave that could track further west

 

Shortwave.jpg

 

S

 

Ignore the first low that comes through the one to the north at T42 will bring you some snow

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2014122512/gfsnh-0-42.png?12

 

S

 

 

Right I see that.  Well spotted.  Merry Christmas to Everyone, I hope we all get some of the snaw

[Staffordshire]

NMM looking fairly snowy for the Midlands tomorrow, wouldn't trust ppn type charts from gfs though, another track further south for the low tomorrow on the 12z gfs, putting southern Midlands into firing line, anyone with more knowledge willing to give a forecast on potential hot spots and amounts?

[SMU]

Entrenched surface cold for England past 120 on the GFS, as we head past that out to 162 the continental feed gets a little more squeezed which will force some very dry air into the UK,

 

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014122512/162-778UK.GIF?25-12

 

Any front that comes in from the NW has a high probability of turning to snow.

 

The 12z suite so far has already back tracked west .... UKMO 144 has the very cold continental air on the tip of the kent coast & it looks as though the feed will get squeezed as well as the atlantic tries to undercut energy.....

 

S

[shaky]

NMM looking fairly snowy for the Midlands tomorrow, wouldn't trust ppn type charts from gfs though, another track further south for the low tomorrow on the 12z gfs, putting southern Midlands into firing line, anyone with more knowledge willing to give a forecast on potential hot spots and amounts?

is that the 12z nmm!! Post pics if possible!

[Harsh Climate]

Gfs12z rain/snow has rain south of yorkshire tommorow