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Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas


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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

Looks increasingly likely this whole setup will flatten quickly. Even worse is the amount of cold air progged to come out of Canada - don't be surprised if we are in for a stormy new year! 

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Posted
  • Location: Ormesby St Margaret - Nr Gt Yarmouth / Work in Norwich
  • Location: Ormesby St Margaret - Nr Gt Yarmouth / Work in Norwich

Merry Christmas everyone! I think Jab Feb 2015 are going to be great model watching with the way things are poised and some great recent Strat charts.- Definitely straining the Netweather servers soon! Thanks to all the posters. 

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Still snow risk in the Boxing day/Saturday low, there is also a window behind this briefly to bring in wintry showers (maybe purely snow if we get a finger of cold air in from the continent).

Otherwise the high quickly collapses into the UK and by the looks of it northern Europe setting up a milder south westerly flow.

ECM1-48.GIF?25-12

 

ECM very much in line with the other output, day 7

ECM1-168.GIF?25-12

 

Given the extensive fall in heights over the Canada/Greenland region, I would say that a period of stormy weather could develop by new year. Though the Azores ridge could deflect these north of the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND

I think you can have the polar vortex split stratospheric warming and all the background signals but at the end of the day, if the Hp cell is not in the right place it's curtains, very disappointing output from all the models.looks like mild sw in a weeks time!

Edited by snowice
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Posted
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow

Keep the faith. FI is as close as 48 hours. The track of the low is still not nailed, and thus following events could be very different to what is currently shown in the charts. As little as 7 hours ago, Ian F stated that the MetO are undecided which way the weather will go, so do not lose heart.

Merry Christmas to everyone.

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl

After that big let down, we move on to the next drama.. ECM has managed to carve out an arctic high straight from the other side of the pole.

 

ECH1-240.GIF?25-12

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

Awful output for coldies. The models once again over egging any HLB. First it was phantom Greenland heights and now a phantom Scandi high.

Looks like we are in for a couple of weeks of zonality.

OPI and SAI looking shaky to say the least.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

If we learnt anything from last year it was that a NE Canadian PV will rarely allow the UK any cold. The GEFS have been suggesting this type of scenario for early January for a while and now GEM and ECM are on board:

 

post-14819-0-17462900-1419492141_thumb.g post-14819-0-95118000-1419492141_thumb.p post-14819-0-37820900-1419492142_thumb.p

 

That is at D9 and looking at the D16 GEFS the clusters suggest that is the most likely scenario as we head towards mid-Jan. D15 GFS P:

 

post-14819-0-95451200-1419492848_thumb.p

 

We should get a colder PM flow from the discharge from the PV lobe to the NE so I would be surprised if Jan has a positive early CET and for the hills in the north opportunities for snow; not a lot for us down south though.

 

A lot complain that the GFS over does the Atlantic (true) but the far worse crime is that ECM over does heights as most on here are looking for cold. It happens nearly every run at D8-10 on the ECM with outlier after outlier. Its current D7 bias shows that any amplification at D8-10 cannot be taken serious:

 

post-14819-0-42021000-1419492449_thumb.p

 

So it is again the case when uncertainty, this time from a mid-lat low, the models turbo charge the variables and produce charts over doing the amplification even with a clear sign of a reinvigorating Canadian PV! The ops are most at fault, the P is a disaster, worse than ECM after D8 for phantom height rises. The GEFS and its Mean (also ECM) again guided the way. 

 

The strat experts seem hopeful that some sort of warming effecting the trop will occur in early-mid Jan, possibly an SSW; that has always been our best hope of a cold spell and hopefully the flatter pattern will not damage wave 2 development.

 

Happy Christmas to all.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Happy Christmas all. As a final sign-off before indulgence tomorrow, I cite the UKMO Dep. Chief an hour ago, reference whatever you may read and/or assess into the future: "...confidence tapers off quickly toward the end of next week, and further changes in emphasis are possible in the coming days."

Enjoy the festive period!

 

Merry Christmas all  :smiliz19:

 

Just thought i would re-post this from Ian last night so folk don't get to hung up on this mornings run's.. Remember how choppy the models have been over the past week. No change this morning... Time to put the Turkey on and peel the Sprouts!

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire

Awful output for coldies. The models once again over egging any HLB. First it was phantom Greenland heights and now a phantom Scandi high.

Looks like we are in for a couple of weeks of zonality.

OPI and SAI looking shaky to say the least.

A couple of weeks?? That's over 300 hrs of zonality?
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Posted
  • Location: Binley, Coventry 83mts asl
  • Location: Binley, Coventry 83mts asl

Merry Christmas to all who post and follow this excellent forum. Met office still struggling with the exact track of the boxing day low. So snow possible tomorrow, and a cold weekend to come, after that and into fi, who really knows?

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Posted
  • Location: Midlothian
  • Location: Midlothian

Looks very much like a zonal pattern setting up after the weekend. I was heavily sceptical about any cold lasting longer than a few days. Also looks like the milder weather will last a while.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

A pretty bad storm model'd for the turn of the Month, No weeks of Zonal showing this morning.. A cool N/W Pm flow is showing, Giving snow possibility's over most of the UK.  All subject to change on the next run. 

 

gfsnh-0-192.png?0gfsnh-0-324.png?0gfsnh-6-324.png?0gfsnh-2-360.png?0

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Boxing day could see disruptive snowfall for the spine of the UK down to the Midlands, As a front pushes in from the West bumping into the colder air over us, Warnings have been issued by the Met, An interesting day..

 

 

45-574UK.GIF?25-051-574UK.GIF?25-0

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: West Northants
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Winters, Warm Summers.
  • Location: West Northants

Awful output for coldies. The models once again over egging any HLB. First it was phantom Greenland heights and now a phantom Scandi high.

Looks like we are in for a couple of weeks of zonality.

OPI and SAI looking shaky to say the least.

It's christmas missing ballon data. Expect flip to cold tomorrow morning!

Edited by JOPRO
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

BA BLIMMiN HUMBUG models, tut tut. I'm going to have to get drunk now!

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Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl

Awful output for coldies. The models once again over egging any HLB. First it was phantom Greenland heights and now a phantom Scandi high.

Looks like we are in for a couple of weeks of zonality.

OPI and SAI looking shaky to say the least.

Couple of weeks? When we get locked into a zonal spell it's 4 weeks minimum...6 if we are really unlucky...by then you're mid February and most of the winter gone..oh dear.

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh

Awful output for coldies. The models once again over egging any HLB. First it was phantom Greenland heights and now a phantom Scandi high.

Looks like we are in for a couple of weeks of zonality.

OPI and SAI looking shaky to say the least.

Yes, sad but looks odds on as many have been saying

Happy Xmas all - hope Santa brings you the cold sometime in the new year!

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Merry Christmas to all!

Managed to catch Santa quickly last night, and he apologised for not being able to sort the weather for today... He said he was busy with delivering presents or something unimportant like that :laugh:

Either way, he said to make up for it, he'll try and sort a nice cold period in January for us all, after a little rest :smiliz19:

Have a good day all :)

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Posted
  • Location: Bude
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather...heavy snow and heat waves
  • Location: Bude
Looks very much like a zonal pattern setting up after the weekend. I was heavily sceptical about any cold lasting longer than a few days. Also looks like the milder weather will last a while.[/quot

Really annoying post Alert!!!!!!

Edited by John Badrick
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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands

Merry Christmas everyone hope you all have a great day and keep up the great work. On a side note the low looks the same to me cant see any major differences correct me if i am wrong i am anticipating some suprise snow even to low levels on boxing day and the 27th. Ho ho ho.

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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset

Happy Christmas to all on Netweather. My Christmas morning report is here:-

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

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