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Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas


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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

I've been away for a few days, what the hell happend to the high going to scandy and winds from the east, I now read we are back looking at FI, I thought there was some cross model agreement, obviously not!!

Fromey

Ps hope everyone had a good xmas

Serves you right for taking your eyes of the models for a few days! lol

 

Disappointing to see all the models agreeing on a sinking high! Snow followed by a frosty high is my favourite weather.

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

Very misleading comment. You know full well the charts are not showing the potential they did. The milder scenario being firmed up on today was by no means a certainty a few days ago, don't make out otherwise.

Maybe not S4, but the stella charts showing cold and possibly more wintry conditions for early January, were only in view for a couple of days model output.

They appeared for a few runs, which meant it was nailed on (obviously), but as if by magic those runs disappeared.

We're heading towards a late 90s/early noughties Winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Sowerby bridge, near halifax, W Yorks 120m
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny (hate hot), severe thunderstorms, heavy snow, extreme cold
  • Location: Sowerby bridge, near halifax, W Yorks 120m

And yet the GFSP brings in cold on a westerly flow however weak. At this time of year it is harder than you think to avoid it.

 

hgt500-1000.png

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

The low res gfsp after day 10 interests me in that it has a weak upper ridge Eastern Greenland which it shares with the extended ECM ens mean.

With low heights anfpd thicknesses established across the uk by then under a deep trough, I wonder if the subsequent Atlantic features will come in on a southerly enough track to be interesting from a wintry white viewpoint? (Will that little e greeny feature be enough to divert the jet far enough to the south?)

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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire

We're heading towards a late 90s/early noughties Winter.

Winter's over eh? (Ps it's 26th Dec. I wouldn't write off summer based on charts of 26th June).
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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

I don't recall any nailed on Stella charts tbh. The northerly was always going to be a non event as it just wasn't going to be cold enough to pack a punch. In the finish it never happened anyway.

 

The easterly never got beyond the 'almost but no cigar' stage before it became clear that the good ship high pressure was sinking. Too early to write the winter off but if someone offered me a mild Jan & Feb with one week of cold and snow somewhere along the line I'd bank it right now.

 

Just for curiosity see below the chart for 4th Jan 2014 taken from the meteociel

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=4&month=1&year=2014&hour=0&map=1&mode=0

 

Now the projected chart for 4th Jan 2015

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=216&mode=0&runpara=1    (GFSP)

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=216&mode=0     (GFS)

 

To be clear I'm not saying winter is over!!!!! just highlighting that this is a pretty dismal starting point. 

Edited by Jason M
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Posted
  • Location: suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: deep snow/warm sunshine
  • Location: suffolk

Winter's over eh? (Ps it's 26th Dec. I wouldn't write off summer based on charts of 26th June).

Im starting to think it is as we'll be half way through before we know it and still looking two weeks ahead. Just seems like the more the models get upgraded the less confident I become in there output. Edited by snow mad
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Well outside atm we have a couple of inches of snow and its still snowing!anyway the mo does look a bit rank entering jan but the nh profile does look fluid so hopefully in the weeks a head things may become more wintry.im off out in snow with my bulldog so enjoy!!!!

 

where?

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Posted
  • Location: Chichester West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow
  • Location: Chichester West Sussex

This winter has been a good one so far for the majority of us, much better than last year. With a whole week of cold and frosts ahead we have had it good so far....

And we're still only on the 26th of December, so we still have more then two whole months of winter ahead and anything can happen. So for people to be writing it off and throwing paddys is quite hilarious. Plenty of time for more cold, wintry spells.

Models change more times than the weather (excuse the pun) we still have so much to play for

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Having taken a few days off from model watching, it comes to no surprise where we are going forward in the medium range. As mentioned before Christmas, two thirds of MOGREPS members sunk the high into Europe and this was backed up by a fairly strong signal on the Met Office LRF text.

 

Whilst thoroughly disappointing for those who want *real* cold/snow, we can be at least grateful for some seasonal weather next week - many inland parts, on particular Tuesday, will see temperatures rise barely above freezing.

 

Going forward, once again there are signals (albeit weak) of colder conditions becoming established, it's going to be a waiting game and keep an eye on ensemble trends rather than the operational/control/parallel charts posted :)

 

Happy that some got to see significant snowfall tonight, long overdue!

 

Well,there does seem to be some decent support from the ensemble means for a developing Arctic high in the medium term,hence the posting of operational charts with a similar theme. :)

 

gfs p.. gefs..

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Posted
  • Location: nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: nr Chelmsford, Essex

Well,there does seem to be some decent support from the ensemble means for a developing Arctic high in the medium term,hence the posting of operational charts with a similar theme. :)

 

gfs p..attachicon.gifgfsnh-12-192.png gefs..attachicon.gifgensnh-21-5-192.png

 

Absolutely, just meant the ups and downs of 4 GFS runs a day! Life would be less stressful with just an 00Z and 12Z from all of the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Well,there does seem to be some decent support from the ensemble means for a developing Arctic high in the medium term,hence the posting of operational charts with a similar theme. :)

 

gfs p..attachicon.gifgfsnh-12-192.png gefs..attachicon.gifgensnh-21-5-192.png

I think the Arctic high has a good chance of verifying but the big question mark is whether its going to look good on the outputs but flatter to deceive.

 

Whether that can cause enough trough disruption to get the UK on the cold side of the jet, it would help if that PV chunk to the west gets edged further west, uncertainty also as to how amplified the pattern will be in the USA/Canada.

 

I think we'll need to see some favourable shortwave/PV interaction upstream to help sharpen up any troughing to the west.

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

I think the Arctic high has a good chance of verifying but the big question mark is whether its going to look good on the outputs but flatter to deceive.

 

Whether that can cause enough trough disruption to get the UK on the cold side of the jet, it would help if that PV chunk to the west gets edged further west, uncertainty also as to how amplified the pattern will be in the USA/Canada.

 

I think we'll need to see some favourable shortwave/PV interaction upstream to help sharpen up any troughing to the west.

 

Yes,the Arctic high can be a bit elusive when it comes to actually delivering anything,but i'm willing to give it another try whenever its ready. :laugh:

Absolutely, just meant the ups and downs of 4 GFS runs a day! Life would be less stressful with just an 00Z and 12Z from all of the models.

 

I suppose we could just not look at the other two runs,but i can't see it happening. :D

 

Apparently the gefs ensembles are to get an upgrade in a couple of years where they will go

out to 720 hrs,and who knows how far the operational's will go out to by then. 

Edited by Cloud 10
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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

I think coldies will be not too unhappy because polar maritime incursions look likely beyond the cold,frosty settled spell which will hold on until well into next week the further south east you are. So we are likely to see further wintry conditions at times.

 

Mainly in the North - wintry conditions very unlikely in the south in the medium term.  It's 9C here at the moment - positively balmy!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Mainly in the North - wintry conditions very unlikely in the south in the medium term.  It's 9C here at the moment - positively balmy!

18z shows cold weather in the south too, lots of frosts.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

I suppose we could just not look at the other two runs,but i can't see it happening. :D

 

Apparently the gefs ensembles are to get an upgrade in a couple of years where they will go

out to 720 hrs,and who knows how far the operational's will go out to by then. :shok:

I can hardly wait! lol Its a complete waste of time and money, has anyone yet been given their P45 or whatever they call it over there for the useless CFS?

 

I'd rather met organisations tried to make improvements to their more short/medium term than throw money down the toilet in this fruitless search for answers that they won't get.

 

Can you imagine this place with the GFS going out even further? It's bad enough now being subjected to charts at T384hrs when the actual error rate at that stage means you may aswell  just pull a solution out of a hat!

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

I can hardly wait! lol Its a complete waste of time and money, has anyone yet been given their P45 or whatever they call it over there for the useless CFS?

 

I'd rather met organisations tried to make improvements to their more short/medium term than throw money down the toilet in this fruitless search for answers that they won't get.

 

Can you imagine this place with the GFS going out even further? It's bad enough now being subjected to charts at T384hrs when the actual error rate at that stage means you may aswell  just pull a solution out of a hat!

 

You never know Nick,one day +384 hrs might be the reliable timeframe. :w00t:

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