Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

Many thanks

[BM4PM]

Well Well well We end up with a easterly!.not many of us seen that one coming but big kudos to those of you that did.I've got big scars from the December 2012 phantom easterly so I won't be getting to excited.

We get sod all snow IMBY even in the best of setups,but I live in hope!.To be honest I'm happy with a sharp frost.

Looking at the models my snow hackles would be getting very excited if I lived in the south east.But don't think they're gona be up to much where I am.

[Trom]

It's interesting to note that the GFS was being rubbished for being an outlier early today - which in fact looks to have turned out to be correct.  But now it's showing the coldest outcomes there's little criticism.  I sense there's a fair amount of cognitive dissonance on here tonight but understandable in the excitement.

 

Will be interesting to see the dispersion on the ensembles as we move forward.  Just yesterday we had huge divergence outside the 72-86 hr time frame - it will be interesting to see if this is now significantly lower.

[Brassmonkeylily]

Wow…. now that is a set up….. 

 

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/surface-pressure/#?tab=surfacePressureColour&fcTime=1419638400

[bluearmy]

Well Well well We end up with a easterly!.not many of us seen that one coming but big kudos to those of you that did.I've got big scars from the December 2012 phantom easterly so I won't be getting to excited.

We get sod all snow IMBY even in the best of setups,but I live in hope!.To be honest I'm happy with a sharp frost.

Looking at the models my snow hackles would be getting very excited if I lived in the south east.But don't think they're gona be up to much where I am.

I do live in the south east and my hackles aren't yet stirred. no expectation as yet from the output on offer. I doubt the weekend will bring anything of much note down here and then have to hope that the scandi high and undercut or cold pool pay a visit.

Btw, worth playing through the NH profile on meteociel post T192 to see a typical quick trop response to an upper vortex split. Seems to occur in tandem with the strat split and again,typically, puts the hemisphere pattern back together gain thereafter.

[londonblizzard]

GFS 18Z one of the best looking runs for cold i've seen so far, and what a massive u-turn. I've missed easterlies. Definitely taking it with a pinch of salt, but at least there's now a bit of excitement to wake up to on christmas eve for more model watching.

[TEITS]

Just as quickie from me.

 

Delighted with the trend although this does not surprise me as the hints of an E,ly were there a few days ago. The most pleasing aspect is it could become even better. What I mean by this is the high pressure could be centred further N resulting in a colder, more prolonged cold spell than currently modelled. Even further ahead and the classic synoptic pattern of the block remaining in situ with the Atlantic undercutting the block before pressure begins to rise towards Greenland.

 

Probably getting ahead of myself but as i've said for a few days now it will turn colder towards the end of the year into the New Year.

[BM4PM]

It's interesting to note that the GFS was being rubbished for being an outlier early today - which in fact looks to have turned out to be correct.  But now it's showing the coldest outcomes there's little criticism.  I sense there's a fair amount of cognitive dissonance on here tonight but understandable in the excitement.

 

Will be interesting to see the dispersion on the ensembles as we move forward.  Just yesterday we had huge divergence outside the 72-86 hr time frame - it will be interesting to see if this is now significantly lower.

I think it was thrown in the bin for being over progressive, that's what it does.now it has seen the light halalua.

[blizzard81]

I do live in the south east and my hackles aren't yet stirred. no expectation as yet from the output on offer. I doubt the weekend will bring anything of much note down here and then have to hope that the scandi high and undercut or cold pool pay a visit.

Btw, worth playing through the NH profile on meteociel post T192 to see a typical quick trop response to an upper vortex split. Seems to occur in tandem with the strat split and again,typically, puts the hemisphere pattern back together gain thereafter.

 

 

I do live in the south east and my hackles aren't yet stirred. no expectation as yet from the output on offer. I doubt the weekend will bring anything of much note down here and then have to hope that the scandi high and undercut or cold pool pay a visit.

Btw, worth playing through the NH profile on meteociel post T192 to see a typical quick trop response to an upper vortex split. Seems to occur in tandem with the strat split and again,typically, puts the hemisphere pattern back together gain thereafter.

Depends what your expectations are to be honest. Just 24 hours ago, not many were seeing the charts we are seeeing now.

I for one will be banking the AT LEAST frosty and potentially foggy outlook.

[damianslaw]

FAX chart this evening clearly showing the low pressure tracking SE down the country with cold uppers quickly moving in from the NE - much of the north under 528 sub dam air, and for the first time this winter season the 510 dam line moving into the Baltic Sea - it suggests to me the development of a significant cold pool to our NE - any easterly drift thereafter will be a cold one.

 

Its been a very good day for cold lovers - after many days of model frustration in this respect, but as ever, the models will chop and change, this is a very volatile period but clearly changes are afoot - many long range forecasts were suggesting a change taking place over Christmas to much colder evolution - and it wasn't long ago the Met Office were hinting at this as well.

[Sweatyman]

Right guys n gals we are all getting very excited..... but please for the love of COLD we are not to mention this to anybody.... nobody no matter how close they may be to you under no circumstances are we to say anything not until t24.... and nothing to the kids until t0.....

youre so right! Keep it zipped...

[MR EXTREMES]

Just as quickie from me.

 

Delighted with the trend although this does not surprise me as the hints of an E,ly were there a few days ago. The most pleasing aspect is it could become even better. What I mean by this is the high pressure could be centred further N resulting in a colder, more prolonged cold spell than currently modelled. Even further ahead and the classic synoptic pattern of the block remaining in situ with the Atlantic undercutting the block before pressure begins to rise towards Greenland.

 

Probably getting ahead of myself but as i've said for a few days now it will turn colder towards the end of the year into the New Year.

U did indeed I threw the towel in couple of days ago until I see the track se and heights over the uk.

Fair few cold set ups over the good winters of old had heights over us moving around then moving to Scandinavia bang cold flood gates open.

I'm very curious to see if it will happen could well get blooming cold.

[JP1972]

One set of runs and we're already back slapping? There's a long way to go folks.

 

Oh goodness me yes.

 

You would have thought with the recent model inconsistency, people would learn not to get too excited over one run.

 

More runs needed. Many more runs needed ...

[Hocus Pocus]

There seems to a lot of backslapping as though this is a done deal, I would strongly advise caution as a UK base high looks the form horse and until the MetO start singing from the Easterly hymn sheet mark it down as a possible outcome.

[Neilsouth]

Here you go TS

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82079-model-output-discussion-the-final-stretch-to-christmas/page-27

 

POST 538 :smiliz19:

 

credit to him,i look forward to his details in the future,not discounting all other experienced folk on the forum of cause :smiliz19:

 

Thanks kindly

[BM4PM]

I do live in the south east and my hackles aren't yet stirred. no expectation as yet from the output on offer. I doubt the weekend will bring anything of much note down here and then have to hope that the scandi high and undercut or cold pool pay a visit.

Btw, worth playing through the NH profile on meteociel post T192 to see a typical quick trop response to an upper vortex split. Seems to occur in tandem with the strat split and again,typically, puts the hemisphere pattern back together gain thereafter.

Hi ba, from what I understand (still learning) the vortex cold air will flow south where there is least resistance forced from warming in the strat above.

This makes trying to make a forecast based on a warming almost impossible.I think the met office have made big steps on trying to do this demonstrated in 2013 when they forecasted a change in December 2012.

It does worry me that there is no mention of a pattern change in there medium range forcast but who now's what's being said behind closed doors.

Anyway it's all a mile better than last year so lets hope there isn't any more horrors for people this christmas.

Edited December 24, 2014 by BM4PM

[Essexgooner]

Think I will wait for another couple of runs before getting to excited, but at least the charts are heading the right way at this stage  

[bobbydog]

i've got 10 eggs, that means i've got 10 chickens. right?.......

[The Northern Ramper]

After two years ago still fresh in the memory I will wait until inside T72 before the Easterly champagne is drank.

[Trom]

I think it was thrown in the bin for being over progressive, that's what it does.now it has seen the light halalua.

 

Yes it has been a bias that we've seen before - it's also been correct before.  My point was really it's hard to have confidence in a model that shows that amount of change between two runs at such a short timescale (relatively speaking).  What would be interesting is to know exactly what variable caused such a sea change.  It's not as if it was a gradual adjustment - more of a wham.  Lets see where it settles now it's picked up the ECM/UKMO trends.

 

Personally I have more confidence in the models that have evolved to this solution.  I'm not sure how GFS got to its output in the last run.  Which variable changed and at what timescale?

 

Anyway all good fun and very addictive watching those models.  I'm lucky as my work splits 50:50 UK and Wisconsin so I'm guaranteed all sorts.  Over in WI they are always hoping for mild!  It just shuts off outside as a place you want to be for any period of time - compensated by more reliably hot summers.  If you are obsessed by red meat, shooting things, pick up trucks but like a beer I'd recommend it. 

 

Last year was quite exceptional too with the mighty low pressure events battering us time and time again.  I think Imight just be a volatility lover.

Edited December 24, 2014 by Trom

[BM4PM]

Yes it has been a bias that we've seen before - it's also been correct before. My point was really it's hard to have confidence in a model that shows that amount of change between two runs. What would be interesting is to know exactly what variable caused such a sea change. It's not as if it was a gradual adjustment - more of a wham.

Personally I have more confidence in the models that have evolved to this solution. I'm not sure how GFS got to its output in the last run.

Anyway all good fun and very addictive watching those models. I'm lucky as my work splits 50:50 UK and Wisconsin so I'm guaranteed all sorts. Over in WI they are always hoping for mild!

Last year was quite exceptional too with the mighty low pressure events battering us time and time again. I think Imight just be a volatility lover.

.

It really was quite something else last year I wonder what your friends in wi would of made of it all.

As for the models I think they make there calculations on what the see at that time and due to outside influences (ie solar activity)the 12h chart on the 00z run is never the same as following 00h chart on the 12z.

Edited December 24, 2014 by BM4PM

[Duane S.]

One thing I do not see a flat pattern going forward and this is where things could get very interesting. Strong support for an East Pacific ridge, wave1 shunting the vortex away from the pole towards our NW, scandi height rises, wave2 response. We then become very quickly in undercut territory.

[karlos1983]

Wow…. now that is a set up….. 

 

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/surface-pressure/#?tab=surfacePressureColour&fcTime=1419638400

Liking the curve of the 528 line all the way to the south Coast, happy days

[karlos1983]

I refuse to get remotely excited about an easterly shown on one run from the GFS. It has my attention don't get me wrong, but it's flipped completely in the space of 6 hours! A pub run classic for now, to be continued, just don't expect to wake up at 6am to those same charts, because if they are still there I'll drive to Scarborough and skinny dip myself.

[Mair Snaw]

I refuse to get remotely excited about an easterly shown on one run from the GFS. It has my attention don't get me wrong, but it's flipped completely in the space of 6 hours! A pub run classic for now, to be continued, just don't expect to wake up at 6am to those same charts, because if they are still there I'll drive to Scarborough and skinny dip myself.

you may regret that in the morning mate.....