Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas

[Matty M]

Some of the most dramatic model changes in the near term I have seen in years..

 

I wonder will there be further corrections in the morning?

Edited December 23, 2014 by Matty M

[Blue max 90]

For a newbie, what does that mean?

Thanks mate

The breakaway part of the low pressure that UKMO and ECM have modelled is not only evident on the GFS, but breaks away much earlier from the low and dives south!

[Allseasons-Si]

A noreaster @ 102 hrs,and look at those hights into iceland/greenland area,much better run and going the ECM/UKMO way :w00t:

 

[Stormyking]

GFS OP going the way ECM and UKMO, looks a rather a snowyish chart for the South and South East! 

[Downpour]

Interested to see where the GFS takes this - can it somehow snatch defeat from the jaws of victory?

[Mark Neal.]

Some of the most dramatic model changes in the near term I have seen in years..

 

It is quite something to witness!

i read that as 'It is quite something to wintryness', strictly true. In my rather short term of watching model output i have known so many differing options/big possible corrections in recent days. Interesting to watch unfold!

[Downpour]

Edit - no it pushes it SE with a very favourable chart for members in the SE!!!

[Downpour]

GFS: Welcome to the party pal!

(With apologies to Bruce Willis)

[snowy weather]

The breakaway part of the low pressure that UKMO and ECM have modelled is not only evident on the GFS, but breaks away much earlier from the low and dives south!

Thanks, is that good or bad for cold weather in south?

[Cheese Rice]

GFS follows in the same vein as the ECM keeping the snowy theme for Northern England/ Scotland.

I'm excited

[Blue max 90]

Take that thanks!

[bluearmy]

gfsp has a good wintry wraparound headed se on sun morning. of course, wont pan out like that but virtual snowfall is better than anything i saw last winter!

[shaky]

If this shortwave pushes any further south then the midlands and wales could get into the snowy section! ! Cant believe the changes and the backtracks am seeing from both the gfss tonight! !

[Blue max 90]

Thanks, is that good or bad for cold weather in south?

Good! Falling into line with the UKMO and ECM from today! main models all now suggesting an easterly following the depression around 27th. Great model watching!

[Snowmadsam]

Boom clap the beat of thundersnow goes on and on on on on! 

 

GFS onboard with UKMO and ECM. Let's just hope the ship doesn't sink har har me harties!! 

 

( I have gone posh pirate!!) 

[Mark Neal.]

GFS OP going the way ECM and UKMO, looks a rather a snowyish chart for the South and South East! 

Early days but it would give a window for backedge snowfall according to the GFS 18z. Colder air moving into N England, with the SE seeing a NE.E flow as the low departs SE-wards.

 

[Geordiesnow]

Drama continues.

 

18z develops random shortwave across Central Southern England

 

Weird.png

 

Its not a random shortwave, all models show this and this is what will give our rain band from the West on Boxing day, what the models do with this in terms of positioning are all slightly different mind. 

 

Maybe its one too keep an eye for potential snowfall also mind because the cold that is coming down during xmas day  could prove to be more stubborn than first thought and a shallow shortwave heading in from the West could provide some fun and games for higher elevations. 

 

18Z is chalk and cheese to the 12Z run mind and it goes to show why this model is unreliable at times but the main thing for me is that it had a better ridge and shows the low slipping SE'wards. 

Edited December 23, 2014 by Geordiesnow

[Mair Snaw]

We have seen many a backtrack from the good old GFS....But this has to be the biggest climb down in its history...... fingers etc crossed the ECM doesn't go off on one in the morning..... :smiliz39:

[Ravelin]

Well when the GPS decided to switch it didn't do it in little increments did it? Oh no.... Bang !

Looks like the models all now agree on the general track, but timing is maybe still an issue with the GPS now dropping the low to the SE a fair bit faster than the others?

[snowy weather]

Good! Falling into line with the UKMO and ECM from today! main models all now suggesting an easterly following the depression around 27th. Great model watching!

That's great news, thanks mate!

When there is 840 users online, you know something is coming

[Great Plum]

Just some slight differences between the 12z and 18z GFS!

Is that -10 air coming into the South East?

[Allseasons-Si]

A poss easterly setting up @ 132 hrs with -8 uppers coming in from the east,all speculative at that range but gfs jumping on board

 

 

there could even be better charts tomorrow from all models across the board,i did say could.

 

 

[chris55]

-10 uppers clipping into the south east on the 18z

[Mark Neal.]

gfsp has a good wintry wraparound headed se on sun morning. of course, wont pan out like that but virtual snowfall is better than anything i saw last winter!

Indeed. Here is the GFS P. Snowfall for many as cold air wraps around and cold uppers come into play. :w00t:

102hrs. 

 

 

108hrs.

 

 

114hrs. 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Unbelievably the GFS has gone from throwing out dire runs for cold, then it produces probably the best run of the day.

Along with back edge snow, as mentioned in the SE thread there is a disturbance (shortwave) which pushes into East Anglia and the South east which brings heavy snow showers. The rest of the UK look dry and cold like the other output. Watch the jet in the Atlantic split as we get to the end of high-resolution.

The parallel is not as good, but the front still gives a spell of snow as it clears south east.

Edited December 23, 2014 by Captain shortwave