Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas

[Harsh Climate]

If this chart was to be pretty close to the mark I could'nt see anything other than the high pressure sinking and a return to zonality. AS there are low heights over svalbard and newfoundland.

 

[phil nw.]

We should see those differences upstream resolved by this time tomorrow as they do start quite early on over NA in the way the jet pattern is split off the Canadian trough.

If we are looking for a better chance of hanging on to some cold towards new year we should hope the UK and ECM have the correct picture.

They are showing stronger ridging in the Atlantic by day 4 and consequently a better dig south of cold air into Europe behind the low after Boxing day.

We then see a high further north than the GFS version.

 

I know there has been talk of the ECM model having some height bias but in this instance with the UKMO model in agreement at T96hrs this doesn't look the case.

 

If we get the high at least over the UK or better still a little further north then we are better placed for an undercut from any further Atlantic troughs and maintaining low heights over S.Europe to support any possible easterly in the future.

 

Anyway that's all speculation for now but let's hope the GFS is on one of it's mistaken Atlantic love ins and we see the Euro's winning through.

[Long haul to mild]

Unfortunately, on this run the undercut decides to take a holiday in the Algarve and Morocco! Way out in FI though of course and the overall trend is good.

 

Edited December 23, 2014 by Long haul to mild

[shotski]

Would it be correct to say there could be some very low minima if UKMO and ECM were to verify. -8 in favoured spots could be possible and freezing fog, possible ice days.

[Met4Cast]

No chance of retrogression towards Greenland with the PV setting up. 

It seems for the past 2 months we've been hearing that the Stratosphere is in a good state, but I'm seeing very little evidence of this on the models with continued modelling for the PV to become more organised exactly where we don't want it

[mushymanrob]

anyway, why are so many knocking the gfs? in the more reliable timeframe its COLDER then the ecm..

 

Rtavn1322.gif Recm1442.gif

 

.... until the 12z ecm anyway!

 

[Jason M]

With maybe a couple of exceptions, GEFS are so flat you would need a spirit level to find any amplification. Whatever signal is being picked up by GFS and its ensembles is surely a strong one (doesn't mean it's right) as it's going for full on long lasting zonality. Given the expectations from the strat this could be particularly interesting as I don't see how both camps can be right.

Edit: IDO can post the means tonight in confidence knowing they do represent the individual ensemble members :-)

Edited December 23, 2014 by Jason M

[Long haul to mild]

No chance of retrogression towards Greenland with the PV setting up. 

It seems for the past 2 months we've been hearing that the Stratosphere is in a good state, but I'm seeing very little evidence of this on the models with continued modelling for the PV to become more organised exactly where we don't want it

 

See what you mean, but someone posted a chart earlier of Feb 1991 (the best snowstorm I can ever remember) and that occurred with low heights in Greenland. If we can tap into these Scandi heights that we keep getting glimpses of in recent output, we could be on to something more promising maybe?

Edited December 23, 2014 by Long haul to mild

[John Snow]

Looks like deep snow in the SE by Sunday night, from an IMBY point of view these charts are perfect, with the prospect of a full blown easterly in FI the good times are starting

[Barry12]

The ECM and UKMO are both in agreement now up to day 6, day 5 is very cold with snow showers falling to lower levels, especially in the SE. This will be the first time since March 2013 that people in the south have seen snowfall, so there is certainly nothing to be pessimistic about. Followed by a cold UK high locking in the cold. At this range, it is highly unlikely the GFS is right, and thankfully I probably won't have to jump in the North sea.

[BristolBaggie]

Here's Fergie take on the weekend. Looks like the front turning to snow in Belgium, Netherlands and France. Rain for the UK.

[Met4Cast]

I'll be pretty surprised if we don't see the 18z GFS backtrack towards the ECM/UKMO tonight, or at least show hints of a backtrack. The 12z GFS(P) sent the low SE too, though not quite as sharply as the ECM and UKMO, it's still a step in what seems to be the right direction. 

Beyond that, signs of a trend towards undercutting?

[bluearmy]

Deep snow ?

Anyway, if you haven't noticed, the difference in the current nwp is that all the interesting stuff is within a reasonable timeframe and it's the boring side showing the potential!

[Downpour]

ECM looking more than okay, Sundays snow in the SE won't go anywhere, ice days there 29th-31st,

ECM is a dire run.

If you like mild weather

[PLANET THANET]

The ECM and UKMO are both in agreement now up to day 6, day 5 is very cold with snow showers falling to lower levels, especially in the SE. This will be the first time since March 2013 that people in the south have seen snowfall, so there is certainly nothing to be pessimistic about. Followed by a cold UK high locking in the cold. At this range, it is highly unlikely the GFS is right, and thankfully I probably won't have to jump in the North sea.

I am totally confused by all this model watching now and am totally perplexed by it all, as according to the bbc1 southeast forecast for the weekend and after , we in the southeast will turn very wet , very windy and mild, I am afraid that I cant read the models and rely on others.

[Harsh Climate]

Looks like deep snow in the SE by Sunday night, from an IMBY point of view these charts are perfect, with the prospect of a full blown easterly in FI the good times are starting

 

Whoaa hold your horses matey, no where near enough evidence to suggest this yet, let alone any snow falling at all away from high ground in scotland. 

[johnholmes]

It looks flat therefore surface conditions can be attained...... does that chart contain the 12z runs?

 

in short - no

a view from a totally different and much less ups and down perspective, often much more correct in the 6-10 and its NOAA version into the 15 day period.

[Stuie]

Here's Fergie take on the weekend. Looks like the front turning to snow in Belgium, Netherlands and France. Rain for the UK.

 

The GFS P has changed it`s tune to that prediction. Surely too early to dismiss Saturday/Sunday at this point?

[Team Jo]

Let's keep it friendly please chaps (tis the season and all that) , and if you're in the mood for a ramp, there's a thread just for that on the link below - absolutely not wishing to pour cold water on anyone's excitement, but please consider if what you're proclaiming to the 600+ people viewing the thread is actually what the models are showing (or your interpretations of) or what you'd like to see.......

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81281-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-autumnwinter-2014

If your post has disappeared, it's more than likely been moved into said thread..

Edited December 23, 2014 by Team Jo

[MR EXTREMES]

Don't u just hate the Azores high all that time waiting teasing like my misus !

Then awww baby Azores is our friend but the biggest thing today is the ecm and ukmo and looking back they both were never far of and I'm certain something is afoot and I'd be very suprised if this pattern does not evolve into something far more wintry.

As we have seen high pressure has been a stubborn sod but if we get it in the right place and it continues to strengthen it could produce a full on cold spell or a Azores drawn blowtorch but it's looking more likely colder evolution.

Perhaps a cold high for awhile progressing into colder but I like ecm better as the high is a better shape and more North then the ukmo but it's positive step in the right direction.

[nick sussex]

I am totally confused by all this model watching now and am totally perplexed by it all, as according to the bbc1 southeast forecast for the weekend and after , we in the southeast will turn very wet , very windy and mild, I am afraid that I cant read the models and rely on others.

Bizarre! Even the GFS wouldn't bring that, initially it might turn milder but even if you take the GFS low position it will still turn colder for a time.

[Frosty.]

It looks like the MO will be changing their outlook again then, chopping and changing every day so they are, no mention of the snow word in the update today but Shirley there would be a risk of snow on Sun and Mon with -8 T850 hPa covering most of the UK .Shirley you can't be serious..I am serious and don't call me Shirley..:-)

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

No chance of retrogression towards Greenland with the PV setting up. 

It seems for the past 2 months we've been hearing that the Stratosphere is in a good state, but I'm seeing very little evidence of this on the models with continued modelling for the PV to become more organised exactly where we don't want it

The models cant even work out whats going to happen within the next 72-120 hours never mind the next 2 weeks lol. 

For all we know, they could be modelling the strengthening PV completely wrong. Time will tell.

[MR EXTREMES]

I am totally confused by all this model watching now and am totally perplexed by it all, as according to the bbc1 southeast forecast for the weekend and after , we in the southeast will turn very wet , very windy and mild, I am afraid that I cant read the models and rely on others.

In all honesty it's 50/50 but the uppers do support snowfall.

But I'd be interested to see this bbc forecast for Sunday.

[Stuie]

It looks like the MO will be changing their outlook again then, chopping and changing every day so they are, no mention of the snow word in the update today but Shirley there would be a risk of snow on Sun and Mon with -8 T850 hPa covering most of the UK .Shirley you can't be serious..I am serious and don't call me Shirley..:-)

I am with you Frosty.

 

But the spanner could be the WB level, increased from 0 - 200M but it`s still Tuesday and the WB is GFS based, not ECM.

Dew points fine as expected.

 

It`s still only Tuesday.