Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas

[Mucka]

Well GFS 12z Op is pretty much a write off for snow chances in Dec away from Scotland and then any colder air wouldn't be around for long. 

It is with runs like this we are grateful there is so much uncertainty and we can just shrug and wait for something better.

 

GFS parallel 12z is a little better and goes with back edge snow as it often has behind the deep low so though not sustained cold by any means at least a fair few would likely see snow falling for the first time in a long while.

Generally though both runs are not as interesting as this mornings output, all change 18z no doubt.

 

The UKMO is the most amplified output this evening so far, teasingly stuck at 120h!

 

Edited December 22, 2014 by Mucka

[Harsh Climate]

Apart from the inital Northerly that could bring snow to lower levels on Sunday on the GFS P, both models are very boring indeed

 

I agree, dissapointing output this afternoon just hope the ECM can pull a rabbit out of the hat, otherwise the chances of a more prolonged cold/snowy spell anytime soon seems to be diminishing.

[Ali1977]

All very poor for people wanting widespread cold and snow, with a possibility of some transient stuff slowly tapering with each run....on to mid Jan then !!! For the Alps I hope the GFS is way off the mark in the medium range with a strong high building

[Nick L]

Folks, can we please keep on topic? Jokey/banterous posts with unrelated videos/images belong in the ramps/moans/banter thread. If you're wondering where your post is, it's most likely in there.

 

Thank you.

Edited December 22, 2014 by Nick L

[Mucka]

GEM pretty horrible. No  cold and a nasty looking storm. Hopefully it is stuggling even more than the other models.

 

[IDO]

I suggest seeing the New Year in NE USA and staying for a week: 

 

A recurring theme. A second attempt at an Alaskan Ridge after D11 but this also collapses late in FI on the GFS op.

 

GEM wipes the GH from 1055mb to 1015mb in a couple of days from D3:  

 

So by D7:  GFS P in FI coming in line with the mean: 

Edited December 22, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[Weather-history]

I suggest seeing the New Year in NE USA and staying for a week: gfsna-1-360.png

A recurring theme. A second attempt at an Alaskan Ridge after D11 but this also collapses late in FI on the GFS op.

GEM wipes the GH from 1055mb to 1015mb in a couple of days from D3: gem-0-96.png gem-0-126.png

So by D7: gem-0-156.png

The reason why that "Greenland high" is wiped out is because it is a phantom one. The models always have trouble with modelling over this region. Unless there are light greens, yellows or even reds in the 500hpa charts over that area, such "highs" over Greenland should be treated with scepticism. Edited December 22, 2014 by Weather-history

[fergieweather]

12z UKMO failure post T+120 so is being re-run. Expect last frames out to public sites circa 1830 onwards (there will be no change to those already visible). For now, T+120 says it all, really: nasty. As UKMO colleagues rightly point-out, very similar to EC DET (00z) and nothing is (yet) out of the question thereafter.

Edited December 22, 2014 by fergieweather

[karlos1983]

Ok good because my refresh button has just broke  

[Mucka]

12z UKMO failure post T+120 so is being re-run. Expect last frames out to public sites circa 1830 onwards (there will be no change to those already visible). For now, T+120 says it all, really: nasty. As UKMO colleagues rightly point-out, very similar to EC DET (00z) and nothing is (yet) out of the question thereafter.

 

Scandinavian high.  :w00t:

Edited December 22, 2014 by Mucka

[Polar Maritime]

Only one word for the GFSP today 'crap'

 

A very stormy and cold end to the run from the N/W, With snow possible over most parts of the UK with further potential down the line as Pressure builds over Scandinavia.. We await the ECM.

 

Edited December 22, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Winter Cold]

Could we not just be witnessing the usual over-progressiveness of the GFS again? Its just moving the low through and then the high through at quite a pace. As has been mentioned earlier the met update for next week says northerly, so that would suggest to me that the high stays out west and the low stays to our east which would result in said northerly?

 

Also, is the best outcome for the snow chance one where the low does move SE?

[Barry12]

I suggest seeing the New Year in NE USA and staying for a week: gfsna-1-360.png

 

In reality that is very unlikely to verify since it's at day 15

 

The Met Office as Ian Fergusson has said are not ruling out anything after 120 hours, so looking at a 360 hours chart is rather pointless, but each to there own I suppose...

Edited December 22, 2014 by Barry95

[Frosty.]

And it's still very confrontational in here, really disappointed. As for models, it looks like a cold and wintry outlook, don't take the charts literally because things will keep evolving and remember that the met office don't base their outlook on any particular operational run, they have a lot of extra tools to work with and the current outlook for next week is very cold with snow showers and freezing fog..the first proper wintry spell is on the way.

[swfc]

Poor output this afternoon and even the ukmo at 144 would imo show the high sinking.The pv is just to strong which ties in with the projected uptick in the nao ete.Huge jump this morning from a -nao and Greenland high to a +nao and a 980mb low over Greenland be it on the gfs-p???Im at a loss to be honest what to think and we need an sos to Tamara,mr murr and all the other guys in the know!!!

Edited December 22, 2014 by swfc

[Stormyking]

Well then todays 12z runs are rather different indeed, for anything remotely cold the GFS P looks the slightly better option, but still not great to be honest, This weekends cold shot looks on the cards still though with all models trying to come to some sort of agreemant. However after that really is all up in the air.

 

GFS P: 

 

GFS OP: 

 

UKMO not as keen: 

 

 

GFS OP seems to go into almost Bartlett territory, looks rather mild indeed and very flat, but is all in FI so time for change!

 

 

GFS P: Looks very unsettled with some very nasty looking lows right through FI.

 

 

Everything really is all over the place at the moment, though as a neutral follower of the weather im enjoying this roller coaster ride!

[fergieweather]

In reality that is very unlikely to verify since it's at day 15

 

The Met Office as Ian Fergusson has said are not ruling out anything after 120 hours, so looking at a 360 hours chart is rather pointless, but each to there own I suppose...

 

I was referring more to next weekend rather than off into distant future, and whether there's support for the 00z EC DET solution.

[Mucka]

GFS ensembles show a lot of spread by 120h with just about every type of weather modelled for the UK.

One or two lean toward this mornings parallel with Southerly tacking lows.

 

 

Others go for GEM's storm.

 

 

Some for a strong ridge and sharp Northerly flow.

 

 

Others want to dismiss the ridge and push the Atlantic through

 

 

And then there is every possibility in between.

Fair to say the MetO have their work cut out forecasting next weekend and early next week accurately at a local or even national level.

Edited December 22, 2014 by Mucka

[IDO]

The reason why that "Greenland high" is wiped out is because it is a phantom one. The models always have trouble with modelling over this region. Unless there are light greens, yellows or even reds in the 500hpa charts over that area, such "highs" over Greenland should be treated with scepticism.

 

Sorry that's Greenland Heights (see my previous post). Heights here still act as a block even if they are phantom 1055mb ones.

 

 

 

 

The Met Office as Ian Fergusson has said are not ruling out anything after 120 hours, so looking at a 360 hours chart is rather pointless, but each to there own I suppose...

 

I think the question was how the LP system interacts with the UK; next week onward is looking like it is trending zonal.

 

GFS C: 

Edited December 22, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[Barry12]

I was referring more to next weekend rather than off into distant future, and whether there's support for the 00z EC DET solution.

 

I know, but if theirs uncertainty at day 5, surely anything after that is also uncertain? Or is there more support for a more zonal period after?

[Mucka]

I was referring more to next weekend rather than off into distant future, and whether there's support for the 00z EC DET solution.

 

Scandinavian high!  :w00t:

 

 

 

 

 

:smiliz39:  (Just Christmas spirit )

 

Is the signal for a Scandinavian high into next week gaining any traction at all though?

Edited December 22, 2014 by Mucka

[Blue max 90]

Just as we see GFSop and para firming up on the northerly followed by a cold high circa 28/29th the UKMO gives us the potential chance of something more interesting. Eyes going no further than here for now. Exciting stuff!

[alexisj9]

I was referring more to next weekend rather than off into distant future, and whether there's support for the 00z EC DET solution.

With all the changes that keep happening with every run, it will be interesting to see if the EC sticks with it's 00z solution in it's 12z. If it does we may finally be getting somewhere near a solution to this low.

[Weathizard]

In reality that is very unlikely to verify since it's at day 15

 

The Met Office as Ian Fergusson has said are not ruling out anything after 120 hours, so looking at a 360 hours chart is rather pointless, but each to there own I suppose...

Agreed, not worth getting down over charts out of a reliable timeframe when currently within a 'reliable' (yeah right) timeframe we have quite large uncertainty, has to be said though today's 12z's so far are pretty dismal.

As Ian said though, UKMO still think all options are on the table and that's good enough for me to not give up hope just yet

Awaiting the ensembles & 12z EC.

[Nick.F]

There is an enormous lack of respect for other people in this thread at the moment.

I suggest that if one doesn't have something to add to the model discussion with a salient chart or pertinent information, then do not add anything.

If you don't like another's tone, life view, implicit or explicit opinions, just ignore them or block them. It is not up to contributors to put other people in their place, or "correct" them. Let the mods do their job.

Leave the space for discussion of the models and leave the majority of silent and interested readers and learners with a nice set of discussions to follow.

Other types of interventions and comments say more about the commenter than the original poster.

Edited December 22, 2014 by Nick.F