January 2015 CET forecasts

[Summer Sun]

6.6c to the 11th

 

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average

[summer blizzard]

Was looking a bit touch and go but the models do seem to be coming around towards my 4.4C.

[Summer Sun]

Up-to 6.7c to the 12th

 

3.2c above the 61 to 90 average

[Timmytour]

Dammit....my 6.4c was looking good but now the models seem to have turned against me!!!!

[Roger J Smith]

What you need to get from 6.7 C after 12 days to your prediction:

 

8.0 -- needs 8.8 now to end

 

7.0 -- needs 7.2 now to end

 

6.5 -- needs 6.4 now to end

 

6.0 -- needs 5.6 now to end

 

5.5 -- needs 4.7 now to end

 

5.0 -- needs 4.0 now to end

 

4.5 -- needs 3.2 now to end

 

4,0 -- needs 2.4 now to end

 

3.5 -- needs 1.6 now to end

 

3.0 -- needs 0.7 now to end

 

2.5 -- needs -0.1 now to end

 

2.0 -- needs -1.0 now to end

 

Well, not too many people totally eliminated if you look at spread in guidance. Think it may come in close to 4.0 myself.

[damianslaw]

Looks like today will be the CET high point - a preety impressive high point it has to be said.. a marked downward trend over the days ahead, but will need a very cold spell to bring eventual figure down close to average, still a good chance we could end up quite near average - could be one of those classic switcharound months, we've had a number of such months of recent winter months, Feb 2012 was a good example.

[March Blizzard]

What you need to get from 6.7 C after 12 days to your prediction:

 

8.0 -- needs 8.8 now to end

 

7.0 -- needs 7.2 now to end

 

6.5 -- needs 6.4 now to end

 

6.0 -- needs 5.6 now to end

 

5.5 -- needs 4.7 now to end

 

5.0 -- needs 4.0 now to end

 

4.5 -- needs 3.2 now to end

 

4,0 -- needs 2.4 now to end

 

3.5 -- needs 1.6 now to end

 

3.0 -- needs 0.7 now to end

 

2.5 -- needs -0.1 now to end

 

2.0 -- needs -1.0 now to end

 

Well, not too many people totally eliminated if you look at spread in guidance. Think it may come in close to 4.0 myself.

If it was any other month than January I'd be worried about my 4.1C entry coming close, but it's a month in which you can get the coldest of spells at any time and they can make the CET tank.

Still more than half a month for an appreciable drop to occur. In my opinion a mid to high 4's finish looking likely.

[DAVID SNOW]

Cheers here's to another 1795

I do think some of us will be largely off... When David revises down you know something is stirring (!)

and it ain't my coffee...

 

 

Well and truely stirring Dan

[Timmytour]

There's not been too many Januarys looking back at years since 1772 where the aggregate mean CET for the first ten days has been 75c or greater, as I'm sure must be the case with this year.


Here's the previous ones and where the mean CET finished...

YEAR - AGG MEAN CET - FINAL MEAN CET

1873 - 78.6 -  5.2
1902 - 75   -   4.7
1916 - 83.3   - 7.5
1921 - 81.5   - 7.3
1950 - 79.1  -  4.2
1975 - 78.5   - 6.8
1976 - 75.3   - 5.9
1983 - 76.2   - 6.7
1992 - 77.9   - 3.7
2005 - 76.7   - 6
2007 - 80.9   - 7

No real pattern of what goes onto happen, but I guess 1902 or 1983 would be nice years to follow from here for fans of cold. They didn't end up the coldest Januarys of the selection by any means but the ensuing Februaries were both under 2c whereas the next coldest Feb was 3.8c in 1916

Here's how 1983 developed...From Jan 10th



To 3rd Feb


 

Edited January 13, 2015 by Timmytour

[Weather-history]

There's not been too many Januarys looking back at years since 1772 where the aggregate mean CET for the first ten days has been 75c or greater, as I'm sure must be the case with this year.

Here's the previous ones and where the mean CET finished...

YEAR - AGG MEAN CET - FINAL MEAN CET

1873 - 78.6 - 5.2

1902 - 75 - 4.7

1916 - 83.3 - 7.5

1921 - 81.5 - 7.3

1950 - 79.1 - 4.2

1975 - 78.5 - 6.8

1976 - 75.3 - 5.9

1983 - 76.2 - 6.7

1992 - 77.9 - 3.7

2005 - 76.7 - 6

2007 - 80.9 - 7

No real pattern of what goes onto happen, but I guess 1902 or 1983 would be nice years to follow from here for fans of cold. They didn't end up the coldest Januarys of the selection by any means but the ensuing Februaries were both under 2c whereas the next coldest Feb was 3.8c in 1916

Here's how 1983 developed...From Jan 10th

To 3rd Feb

January 1873 was followed by a cold February with a CET of 1.8C

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72057-winter-1872-73-the-long-wait/

Edited January 14, 2015 by Weather-history

[Timmytour]

January 1873 was followed by a cold February with a CET of 1.8C

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72057-winter-1872-73-the-long-wait/

Yep...thanks WH   missed that......though it was quite as cold as 1902 and 1983 :-)

Overall the average February CET following these Januarys is pretty much bang on the 1700-2014 average. But with an average anomaly of of nearly 1.25c I guess it's a case of either one thing or the other

[Summer Sun]

6.6c to the 13th

 

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Watch the January CET tumble over the next 10 days with daily values around 0-2C! Just tomorrow's mildness to get out of the way.

[hillbilly]

There's not been too many Januarys looking back at years since 1772 where the aggregate mean CET for the first ten days has been 75c or greater, as I'm sure must be the case with this year.

Here's the previous ones and where the mean CET finished...

YEAR - AGG MEAN CET - FINAL MEAN CET

1873 - 78.6 -  5.2

1902 - 75   -   4.7

1916 - 83.3   - 7.5

1921 - 81.5   - 7.3

1950 - 79.1  -  4.2

1975 - 78.5   - 6.8

1976 - 75.3   - 5.9

1983 - 76.2   - 6.7

1992 - 77.9   - 3.7

2005 - 76.7   - 6

2007 - 80.9   - 7

No real pattern of what goes onto happen, but I guess 1902 or 1983 would be nice years to follow from here for fans of cold. They didn't end up the coldest Januarys of the selection by any means but the ensuing Februaries were both under 2c whereas the next coldest Feb was 3.8c in 1916

Here's how 1983 developed...From Jan 10th

To 3rd Feb

 

Not many if any of those winters were much to write about but I came across a local article the other day which described February and march 1916 which gave enormous amounts of snow to this area,more than had been seen since the severe winter of 1890.I had to double check as I thought they had got mixed up with the severe 1917 winter but a little digging suggests it was right...'enormous falls in the pennines'...lovely!!!

[summer blizzard]

Calculated the forecast here from the 15th-21st at 1.14C, allowing for that to be cooler than the national average then a lasting cold spell could potentially take us towards 3.5C.

[March Blizzard]

Calculated the forecast here from the 15th-21st at 1.14C, allowing for that to be cooler than the national average then a lasting cold spell could potentially take us towards 3.5C.

 

Yeah, if some of the model runs from tonight verify then my mid/high 4C final CET figure estimate yesterday may be a tad conservative. Every chance we could end up approaching 2C territory. With the CET at 6.7C on the 12th, that would be one hell of a switcharoo!

[Daniel*]

Well and truely stirring Dan

Indeed my CET figure is not looking so pear shaped. One wonders if this started in early Jan... I might have been close to the mark potentially, 2nd half of January will be bitter be ye warning to yall all.

Oh boy something is stirring - I was one of a few to take a step out the pack, I've had a good feeling for weeks previously, little bit delayed to how I would have wanted, but we're certainly making inroads.

I think we will get severe cold & February to follow to a similar trait perhaps lessening towards March.

[Timmytour]

Not many if any of those winters were much to write about but I came across a local article the other day which described February and march 1916 which gave enormous amounts of snow to this area,more than had been seen since the severe winter of 1890.I had to double check as I thought they had got mixed up with the severe 1917 winter but a little digging suggests it was right...'enormous falls in the pennines'...lovely!!!

1916 was a very late winter kicking off in the last week of Feb with a fair bit of snow and continuing in the same vein into March.  !917 in contrast had a February that was cold throughout, but for the most part dry

[Summer Sun]

6.5c to the 14th

 

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average

[hillbilly]

The 5 month period from December 1916 - April 1917 was very cold, averaging only 2.6 degC. This is slightly colder than the same period in 1962-63 (2.7).

 

Bonacina rated the winter as 'Very Snowy'

The extended winter,oct 1916 to may 1917 gave the most air frosts in this area since 1908.

1916/17...94 air frosts

1978/79..86

1962/63...83

1946/47...78

in comparison

2009/10..58

1985/86..65

2012/13...70.......the most since 1979

[Timmytour]

The 5 month period from December 1916 - April 1917 was very cold, averaging only 2.6 degC. This is slightly colder than the same period in 1962-63 (2.7).

 

Bonacina rated the winter as 'Very Snowy'

 

Hi  LtaH

I should clarify my earlier post, in referring to the "winter of 1916" was in the context of talking about the February and March of that year in relation the the first ten days of January 1916 being warm.

Indeed the winter of 1916/17 featuring the months of Jan and Feb 1917 was a belter and one I'm sure many of us would love to see repeated one day

  

Edited January 15, 2015 by Timmytour

[TonyH]

Hi  LtaH

I should clarify my earlier post, in referring to the "winter of 1916" was in the context of talking about the February and March of that year in relation the the first ten days of January 1916 being warm.

Indeed the winter of 1916/17 featuring the months of Jan and Feb 1917 was a belter and one I'm sure many of us would love to see repeated one day

  

Doubt they appreciated it at the time especially in the trenches

[Weather26]

Down to 6.3c to the 15th

 

2.8c above the 61 to 90 average

Edited January 16, 2015 by Weather26

[Timmytour]

Doubt they appreciated it at the time especially in the trenches

True....it's only the same weather I'd long for.....not the same way of life!!

[Roger J Smith]

Here's the rough math concerning what you might now need to verify your forecast:

 

Assume we are at 6.1 C after today, and rate this as 6.0 due to probable downward adjustment. We are essentially at the half-way point. Thus a rough estimate is easy to work out in your head, take your forecast value, note the difference from 6.0 and double that difference in the same direction as your forecast (up or down). That should give you a fairly close estimate of what you'll need.

 

Example, you said 3.8, that's 2.2 below the "current" value adjusted and so you'll need 4.4 below to get there, or 1.6 C.

 

Craig needs 10 C and the below-zero crew need about -6 to -9 so they are probably out of luck, but almost everyone else has some sort of mathematical chance depending on which recent model run you prefer. I still think the finishing point will be low 4s if not high 3s.