Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Roger J Smith

January 2015 CET forecasts

Recommended Posts

Interesting that people are revising their guesses upwards, however given the current moeals who can blame them.

 

But I have to go above average by 1c, at 5.4c.

 

If it turns cold and snowy that will more than offset me getting this comp wrong.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting that people are revising their guesses upwards, however given the current moeals who can blame them.

 

But I have to go above average by 1c, at 5.4c.

 

If it turns cold and snowy that will more than offset me getting this comp wrong.

 

Mine went down  j. :unknw:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The drinks are all on me! :drunk:

Cheers :drunk: here's to another 1795 :D

I do think some of us will be largely off... When David revises down you know something is stirring (!)

and it ain't my coffee...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am going for 3.8, mild dry start with some frost, then a cold spell towards the end, I would like to wish every one an happy new year has well.

Location Battersea, London, gender Male.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Always manage to be late. May as well go for 5.1c, same as my December guess.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

New Year's Days with CET daily means of 8.0 and greater

1810: 8.7

1824: 8.1

1825: 9.7

1840: 9.3

1851: 10.8

1853: 8.6

1855: 8.1

1860: 8.7

1880: 9.6

1883: 9.6

1886: 8.9

1896: 8.6

1916: 10.5

1917: 10.4

1921: 9.0

1935: 9.5

1937: 8.3

1960: 9.5

1988: 9.3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

7.7C to the 1st

 

4.2c above the 61 to 90 average

 

New Year, same ....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

7.7C to the 1st

 

4.2c above the 61 to 90 average

 

I can't seem to get any new data for 2015 on the MO page, hard refresh included.

Is it this page you're using?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Cheers, in that case then, it's 7.8C for the first day (7.78).

 

The minimum today was 5.8C while maxima are around the mid 7s, so a drop to 6.7C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at

6.3C to the 3rd (4.5)

5.4C to the 4th (2.8]

5.4C to the 5th (5.3)

5.8C to the 6th (8.0)

5.8C to the 7th (5.6)

5.7C to the 8th (5.2)

5.8C to the 9th (6.3)

5.9C to the 10th (6.8]

 

By the 10th, it looks like we'll be about 2.3C above the 61-90 average, 1.6C above the 81-10 average and 1.2C above the average of the last 10 years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Cheers, in that case then, it's 7.8C for the first day (7.78).

 

The minimum today was 5.8C while maxima are around the mid 7s, so a drop to 6.7C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at

6.3C to the 3rd (4.5)

5.4C to the 4th (2.8]

5.4C to the 5th (5.3)

5.8C to the 6th (8.0)

5.8C to the 7th (5.6)

5.7C to the 8th (5.2)

5.8C to the 9th (6.3)

5.9C to the 10th (6.8]

 

By the 10th, it looks like we'll be about 2.3C above the 61-90 average, 1.6C above the 81-10 average and 1.2C above the average of the last 10 years.

 

BFTV

 

What hours of the day represent a full day on the CET? 

 

My current temp is 4.9C (and falling fast) at 17:00  in the middle of the Bhm metropolis here at the centre of CET land. 

Also the first figure of 7.8c looks much too low for this area.unless some unusual  timings are used.

 

MIA

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

BFTV

 

What hours of the day represent a full day on the CET? 

 

My current temp is 4.9C (and falling fast) at 17:00  in the middle of the Bhm metropolis here at the centre of CET land. 

Also the first figure of 7.8c looks much too low for this area.unless some unusual  timings are used.

 

MIA

 

As reef explained in the December thread, it's a 9am to 9am system. So for example, the minimum today of 5.8C will have been recorded between 9am on the 1st and 9am today, while the maximum for today will be record between 9am this morning and 9am tomorrow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1981-2010 Daily CET means, and 1772-2014 daily records

_________________________________________________________

 

 

DATE __ MAX (year) ________ MIN (year) _______ CET mean ___ CET cum

 

01 Jan ... 10.8 (1851) ... ... ... ... -5.9 (1820) ... ... ... ... ... 4.5 ... ... ... ... 4.5
02 Jan ... 10.4 (1948) ... ... ... ... -6.1 (1786) ... ... ... ... ... 4.6 ... ... ... ... 4.5
03 Jan ... 11.6 (1932) ... ... ... ... -7.7 (1795) ... ... ... ... ... 4.2 ... ... ... ... 4.4
04 Jan ... 10.5 (1948) ... ... ... ... -9.3 (1867) ... ... ... ... ... 4.2 ... ... ... ... 4.4
05 Jan ... 11.4 (1957) ... ... ... ... -6.5 (1789) ... ... ... ... ... 4.6 ... ... ... ... 4.4

06 Jan ... 10.3 (1898) ... ... ... ... -6.9 (1894) ... ... ... ... ... 4.6 ... ... ... ... 4.5
07 Jan ... 10.3 (1890) ... ... ... ... -7.7 (1841) ... ... ... ... ... 3.4 ... ... ... ... 4.3
08 Jan ..... 9.9 (1848) ... ... ... ... -9.2 (1841) ... ... ... ... ... 4.0 ... ... ... ... 4.3
09 Jan ... 10.7 (1998) ... ... ... ... -5.0 (1841) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... ... 4.3
10 Jan ... 11.1 (1921) ... ... ... ... -6.7 (1814) ... ... ... ... ... 4.5 ... ... ... ... 4.3

11 Jan ... 10.1 (1990) ... ... ... ... -5.5 (1838) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... ... 4.3
12 Jan ..... 9.9 (1976, 2007) ..... -7.7 (1987) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... ... 4.3
13 Jan ... 10.0 (1796, 1873) ..... -6.6 (1987) ... ... ... ... ... 4.6 ... ... ... ... 4.3
14 Jan ... 10.2 (2011) ... ... ... ... -7.6 (1982) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... ... 4.4
15 Jan ... 10.3 (1804) ... ... ... ... -8.5 (1820) ... ... ... ... ... 4.6 ... ... ... ... 4.4

 

16 Jan ... 10.8 (1990) ... ... ... ... -7.7 (1881) ... ... ... ... ... 4.8 ... ... ... ... 4.4
17 Jan ... 10.2 (1908) ... ... ... ... -6.2 (1881) ... ... ... ... ... 4.6 ... ... ... ... 4.4
18 Jan ... 10.0 (1828) ... ... ... ... -6.1 (1891) ... ... ... ... ... 4.5 ... ... ... ... 4.4
19 Jan ... 11.1 (1930) ... ... ... ... -8.9 (1823) ... ... ... ... ... 5.1 ... ... ... ... 4.4
20 Jan ... 11.2 (2008) .. ... ... .. -11.9 (1838) ... ... ... ... ... 5.1 ... ... ... ... 4.5

 

21 Jan ... 10.8 (1796, 1898).....  -8.1 (1881) ... ... ... ... ... 5.1 ... ... ... ... 4.5
22 Jan ... 10.3 (1878) ... ... ... ... -6.4 (1881) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... ... 4.5
23 Jan ... 11.6 (1834) ... ... ... ... -8.4 (1963) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... ... 4.5
24 Jan ... 10.6 (1782) ... ... ... ... -8.2 (1963) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... ... 4.5
25 Jan ... 11.4 (1846) ... ... ... ... -8.9 (1795) ... ... ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... ... ... 4.5

26 Jan ... 10.0 (1834) ... ... ... ... -7.6 (1945) ... ... ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... ... ... 4.5
27 Jan ... 10.4 (2003) ... ... ... ... -6.5 (1776) ... ... ... ... ... 4.2 ... ... ... ... 4.4
28 Jan ..... 9.8 (1944) ... ... ... ... -6.3 (1776) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... ... 4.4
29 Jan ... 10.4 (1854) ... ... ... ... -6.8 (1776) ... ... ... ... ... 4.6 ... ... ... ... 4.4
30 Jan ... 10.2 (2000) ... ... ... ... -7.5 (1776) ... ... ... ... ... 4.2 ... ... ... ... 4.4
31 Jan ... 10.9 (1868) ... ... ... ... -7.2 (1776) ... ... ... ... ... 4.5 ... ... ... ... 4.4

_____________________________________________________________________

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As reef explained in the December thread, it's a 9am to 9am system. So for example, the minimum today of 5.8C will have been recorded between 9am on the 1st and 9am today, while the maximum for today will be record between 9am this morning and 9am tomorrow.

 

BFTV Thanks

 

Sorry

I must have missed Reef's post.

 

MIA

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Defining a Cold Month Year as in the top 25 coldest months for Man CET since 1700.....to qualify for this a January would need to have a mean CET of 0.4C

Looks very much like it's not going to happen this year.....but the last time we got a Cold Month Year for January was in 1979 which is a wait of 35 years, only the 49 year wait for a cold July has been longer! In contrast there were five in the 11 years 1820 to 1830!

That said it's not the longest wait we've experienced.... in the 100 years btween 1839 and 1939 there were only three such Januarys with 1879 bringing a 41 year wait to an end and 1940 bringing a 45 year wait to an end,

Here's a list of the how many years we've waited for the last Cold Month with the number of corresponding Warm months we've had in that period....only December of all the months has had no Warm months since the last Cold one! 

 

JAN..... 1979..... 7

FEB..... 1986..... 6

MAR... 2013..... 1

APR.... .1986..... 5

MAY.... 1996.... 3

JUN..... 1991.... 2

JUL...... 1965.... 7

AUG.... 1986..... 5

SEP..... 1986..... 7

OCT.... 1992..... 8

NOV... 1985..... 8

DEC... .2010..... 0


 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

×
×
  • Create New...