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Roger J Smith

January 2015 CET forecasts

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To think a couple of weeks ago I was contemplating something not a million miles away from freezing but im afraid.

 

5.3 please.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Some stormy periods and a major SSW event to talk of...but nothing to affect January in a cold way.  Omnipresent westerly flow with that stubborn AZH/Iberian HP never far away......a mild 6c

 

BFTP

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I shall go for 5.5c

 

thanks

 

Going to revise this up if I may?

 

6.0c is my revised estimate

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As the charts out to mid month look almost exactly like 2014 and have done so for some days, it seems only fair to go for 5.7

Some very mild nights in particular I suspect. Increasing amounts of TM air in the mix over time. Yet another above average month to come. When will these never ending mild months end? May onwards would be a good guess :-)

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3.2 for me might be average to start but won't be for long

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I'll go for 4.9c this month on the basis that it gets colder as the month progresses.

 

MM

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I would have liked to go for something lower but as the charts stand.......has to be 5.6c.

 

A happy new year to all and good luck in the 2015 competition year.

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This is why I wait until the end of the month to give my guess.  The model charts for the last few days have been absolutely ghastly to say the least for cold weather prospects and even the stratosphere is now looking less favorable.

 

With this in mind I'm going for a very mild 6.4C please.

 

I know there is a chance things could become more favorable for cold towards the end of the month, but at the moment confidence is low for this outcome.  As some long range models have shown, February is our main hope for Winter now.  However, I feel Winter 2014/15 will be another mild one.

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Going to go all out because why not? -0.7C please ;)

If not the OPI team have a lot to answer - January is paramount to this winter's success. I foresee a significant cold potentially very snowy blast from the East. with little or no mildness at best average.

This is going just great the drinks are on me. :wink:

I still think we will plunge into the freezer I do not see a GH but a Scandi high circa 15-20th January. MJO looks to be turning more favourable later in the month (phase 6) increasing the likelihood of blocking.

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I think we'll go into the freezer in the second half of the month hence my guess of 3.2C.

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This is going just great the drinks are on me. :wink:

I still think we will plunge into the freezer I do not see a GH but a Scandi high circa 15-20th January. MJO looks to be turning more favourable later in the month (phase 6) increasing the likelihood of blocking.

 

I'll drink to that :D

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CET guess: 4.5*C - maybe average to slightly above average at first. But would personally then like to see the Azores High Pressure system get out its magic wand, point it at the Greenland Polar Vortex, and then shrink it so that it's no larger than an atom... thus allowing blocking over Greenland to form. :spiteful:

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This is why I wait until the end of the month to give my guess.  The model charts for the last few days have been absolutely ghastly to say the least for cold weather prospects and even the stratosphere is now looking less favorable.

 

With this in mind I'm going for a very mild 6.4C please.

 

I know there is a chance things could become more favorable for cold towards the end of the month, but at the moment confidence is low for this outcome.  As some long range models have shown, February is our main hope for Winter now.  However, I feel Winter 2014/15 will be another mild one.

 

even I've only gone for 5.1C! probably too low, me guessing too low in a winter month, don't think has ever happened

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I think we'll go into the freezer in the second half of the month hence my guess of 3.2C.

This is going just great the drinks are on me. :wink:

I still think we will plunge into the freezer I do not see a GH but a Scandi high circa 15-20th January. MJO looks to be turning more favourable later in the month (phase 6) increasing the likelihood of blocking.

I'll drink to that :D

The drinks are all on me! :drunk:

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4.2c for me

 

Can I go for a revised 5.0c

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