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Roger J Smith

January 2015 CET forecasts

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It seems that the only sub zero day of the month had been adjusted upward to 0.0C, so our run without a day below 0C continues.

 

Below is a graph of the daily CET before and after corrections with the difference.

 

JPV9a0f.png

 

Below is the daily CET compared to the historical averages and extremes

 

lG5vFBS.png

 

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4.6 or 4.7  are you there  Pete!

 

 

Down to 4.7 to the 24th, with a cold end 4.4,4.5 likely finish.

 

Not a bad prediction from the 24th.

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Last time January came in at 4.4c was 1968.

So 2006 was another close one at 4.3c.

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Another above average month, but much nearer average than many we have seen over the last 18 months. Would be good to know the difference between 1-15 and 16-31, certainly a month of two halves.

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This January came in just 0.4c lower than 2014

 

2014 4.8c

 

2015 4.4c

 

2014 came in at 5.7C.

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I'll try to get the scores up Monday evening, but haven't started yet so it may end up on Tuesday.

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Another above average month, but much nearer average than many we have seen over the last 18 months. Would be good to know the difference between 1-15 and 16-31, certainly a month of two halves.

January to me really felt like a repeat of December, the only difference was that January was a little more extreme with a milder first half than a colder second half. Overall both months pretty much can be summed up as a pretty average winter fare, though in both months the milder periods seemed to edge out the colder ones.

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Phew! Only 0.2 out. Well done SB...

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Damn bloody corrections!!!  i was there and now I'm 0.3c out... :cray:  Oh well!

 

Congrats,  WEATHER26, WEATHER-HISTORY, SUMMER BLIZZARD, DUNCAN McALISTER, A WINTER'S TALE :)

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This January came in just 0.4c lower than 2014

 

2014 4.8c

 

2015 4.4c

That's why last January felt so cold the wind chill last winter was unbearable at times.

As it was wet most of the time it didn`t help.

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Noticed that this was corrected to 0.0 degC, so no sub zero CET daily means this year yet.

Yesterday is, provisionally, -0.1C. Whether this remains so after corrections is the question though.

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Another above average month, but much nearer average than many we have seen over the last 18 months. Would be good to know the difference between 1-15 and 16-31, certainly a month of two halves.

 

If you take the first half as 1-15 and second half as 16-31, then it was 6.1, 2.8.

 

If you prefer 1-16 and 17-31, then it was 6.0 and 2.7.

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If you take the first half as 1-15 and second half as 16-31, then it was 6.1, 2.8.

 

If you prefer 1-16 and 17-31, then it was 6.0 and 2.7.

 

Thanks for the stats - quite a contrast, but not quite a classic switcharound month. Feb 2009 and 2012 were very much switcharound months, cold halves and very mild second halves.

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Results are in.

 

Competition

5 players got it spot on this month.

 

Weather26,  Weather-history,  summer blizzard, Duncan McAlister and A Winter's Tale

 

However with 4.4c being on average there are no bonuses in place for guessing the right or wrong side of average.

 

In the Seasonal comp, the top 3 is Weather-history, DAVID SNOW and Weather26

 

While overall the top 3 is Weather-history, DAVID SNOW and DeepSnow with Weather26 in 4th

 

Jan 2015 CET.pdfJan 2015 CET.xls

 

Stat Zone

The Baseline and average CET are both 4.4c, while the average entry was 4.2c, taking away the netting off effect of the entries the average error was 1.0c

 

The correlation was -0.26c so an advantage for entering later, while the 4th quartile entries were again the best with an average of 60 accuracy points, compared to 40 pts of the first quartile.

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Yet again, not a classic winter month but at least we avoid another record warm month after that very warm start.

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Results are in.

 

Competition

5 players got it spot on this month.

 

Weather26,  Weather-history,  summer blizzard, Duncan McAlister and A Winter's Tale

 

However with 4.4c being on average there are no bonuses in place for guessing the right or wrong side of average.

 

In the Seasonal comp, the top 3 is Weather-history, DAVID SNOW and Weather26

 

While overall the top 3 is Weather-history, DAVID SNOW and DeepSnow with Weather26 in 4th

 

attachicon.gifJan 2015 CET.pdfattachicon.gifJan 2015 CET.xls

 

Stat Zone

The Baseline and average CET are both 4.4c, while the average entry was 4.2c, taking away the netting off effect of the entries the average error was 1.0c

 

The correlation was -0.26c so an advantage for entering later, while the 4th quartile entries were again the best with an average of 60 accuracy points, compared to 40 pts of the first quartile.

 

 

I had 4.2 post 59 not 5 ????

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Yet again, not a classic winter month but at least we avoid another record warm month after that very warm start.

We had lots more in the way of colder zonality this jan,there was one or two exceptional mild nights which if those were not in the equation the CET would`ve been nearer to January 1984,seas are warmer to then though so pretty good.

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^ True but you revised to 5.0 in post 102. -- table guy

:oops:

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