January 2015 CET forecasts

[DAVID SNOW]

With, after this brief cold clip, the models tending towards the mild side again, I'm thinking that the pattern of Daily CETs looks a little like what we had in 1957.

I hope it's not history repeating itself as the February of that year was very undistinguished!!

 

Really? I can only see next Monday as a mild day.

[The PIT]

Really? I can only see next Monday as a mild day.

Friday average Saturday just below Sunday Mild to very mild as is Monday although temps back down to normal overnight.

[DAVID SNOW]

Friday average Saturday just below Sunday Mild to very mild as is Monday although temps back down to normal overnight.

 

Going by the GFS Sunday looks < 5 cet wise: hardly mild or even very mild.

[Timmytour]

Going by the GFS Sunday looks < 5 cet wise: hardly mild or even very mild.

 

Genuinely can't see where you're getting that from. Looking at the Min predicted temps on GFS, at 9am it's threes and fours andby the time you get to 3pm it's all nines and tens and then doesn't fall below 7 all the way through to 9am the next day.

While 5c itself would be a step above the average, it wouldn't surprise me to see the mean CET for sunday touch 7c at least

[DAVID SNOW]

 

Genuinely can't see where you're getting that from. Looking at the Min predicted temps on GFS, at 9am it's threes and fours andby the time you get to 3pm it's all nines and tens and then doesn't fall below 7 all the way through to 9am the next day.

While 5c itself would be a step above the average, it wouldn't surprise me to see the mean CET for sunday touch 7c at least

 

But at 6 AM the temps are around  0 degrees.

[Timmytour]

But at 6 AM the temps are around  0 degrees.

Daily mean temperatures are for the 24 hour period 9am-9am (GMT)

[Timmytour]

The closest match i can find to this month is January 1927. Don't know if anyone could put up one of the graphs mapping the daily CETs longside this years? But I reckon it would be a pretty close match.

For possible pointers......

Jan 1927 CET to the 18th.....5c.....Final CET 4.6C

February 1927 was colder than average without being spectacularly so, with some snow early on in the month

[Summer Sun]

5.4c to the 19th

 

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average

[Roger J Smith]

And just 1.0 deg above the 1981-2010 cumulative CET (all data in post 127, note the mild spike in daily averages around now).

 

As it is the 20th, I am going off on a hunt of the archives for last February's thread and will start the Feb 2015 CET thread very soon.

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is -3.5C while maxima look like reaching about +3.5C, so a drop to 5.2C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

5.0C to the 21st (0.3)

4.7C to the 22nd (0.5)

4.6C to the 23rd (2.0)

4.5C to the 24th (2.5)

4.5C to the 25th (4.7)

4.6C to the 26th (5.4)

4.6C to the 27th (5.1)

4.7C to the 28th (6.2)

4.7C to the 29th (4.9)

 

It's touch and go s to whether or not we manage a sub zero day, with today being probably the best opportunity. At this stage, I'd say a range of 4.2C to 5.4C before corrections, and 3.8C to 5.4C after. Very little chance of getting below the 61-90 average, but a decent chance of dipping below the 81-10 average, depending on how the last 5 days pan out.

[DAVID SNOW]

Daily mean temperatures are for the 24 hour period 9am-9am (GMT)

 

Oops....... Any hoo, looking cool/cold bar a day or so till months end with the cet  coming in at around 4.5.

[Eugene]

5.4c to the 19th

 

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average

 

 

Why are you using old averages, we are in a much warmer world now and should be using the 2001 to 2014 average of 4.7C.

[Summer Sun]

Why are you using old averages, we are in a much warmer world now and should be using the 2001 to 2014 average of 4.7C.

 

Unless anyone can provide a link to those daily averages I and others will just have to stick to what Hadley provide us on a daily basis

Edited January 21, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

5.2c to the 20th

 

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average

[Roger J Smith]

Unless anyone can provide a link to those daily averages I and others will just have to stick to what Hadley provide us on a daily basis

 

I have no issues with using 1961-90 since the Met Office do so, however, if you want a link for the 1981-2010 cumulative normals I have posted them (post 127). The last column in that table shows you the rolling CET average to each date. But if I were you, I would post both rather than switching.

[The PIT]

Going by the GFS Sunday looks < 5 cet wise: hardly mild or even very mild.

Not on the GFS chart I viewed you weren't use the min temps by any chance as they always miles out. Anyway looking at today's run suggests 5c depending on how low the temps are at 9 o'clock in the morning as that will be the low point.

Sunny Sheffield is down to 4.6C.

[Summer Sun]

I have no issues with using 1961-90 since the Met Office do so, however, if you want a link for the 1981-2010 cumulative normals I have posted them (post 127). The last column in that table shows you the rolling CET average to each date. But if I were you, I would post both rather than switching.

 

Thanks for the info

 

So based on that what would the daily CET be to today on the 81-10 averages?

Edited January 21, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

5.0c to the 21st

 

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.5c above the 81 to 10 average?

[BornFromTheVoid]

The -0.1C on the 20th is, provisionally, the first sub zero CET daily mean since 11th of March 2013.

 

Also, the 81-10 mean to the 21st is 4.5C, so the anomaly is currently +0.5C.

 

Anywho, the minimum today is 0.5C while maxima were close to 5C, so a drop to 4.9C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at:

4.7C to the 23rd (1.8]

4.6C to the 24th (1.8]

4.6C to the 25th (4.3)

4.6C to the 26th (5.0)

4.6C to the 27th (4.5)

4.6C to the 28th (5.2)

4.7C to the 29th (7.0)

4.8C to the 30th (5.5)

4.8C to the 31st (4.7)

 

We can probably narrow the range before corrections to 4.4 to 5.1C, and  4.0C to 5.1C after.

[damianslaw]

Pleased we have managed out first sub zero CET mean day this winter albeit only just, unlike last year.

 

It would be good if someone could post the average CET mean of the last 7 days i.e. 17th - 23rd Jan and how it compares with the last 'cold spell' of late March 2013 - any stats say for the period 22-28 March 2013 for comparison.

 

I suspect the mean for March 2013 will be a lower figure.

[Roger J Smith]

Summer Sun -- I think you figured it out, look at last column for date in question, as you did for the 21st.

 

March 2013 -- Mean for 7-d periods coldest of late March 2013 was 0.8 C for 23-29 March. Mean for last seven days was 1.1 C.

 

Daily values for Jan 1927:

 

01 _ 6.5

02 _ 7.7

03 _ 6.0

04 _ 2.6

05 _ 4.1

 

06 _ 6.3

07 _ 5.0

08 _ 5.5

09 _ 8.9

10 _ 8.7

 

11 _ 6.4

12 _ 6.6

13 _ 4.0

14 _ 3.7

15 _ 3.8

 

16 _ 1.8

17 _ 0.4

18 _ 2.7

19 _ 1.8

20 _ -1.0

 

21 _ 1.0

22 _ 1.2

23 _ 2.2

24 _ 4.7

25 _ 7.5

 

26 _ 7.5

27 _ 6.8

28 _ 7.0

29 _ 4.5

30 _ 4.1

 

31 _ 4.2

 

"hope this helps"

 

 

[summer blizzard]

Interestingly the last January this close to the 1981-2010 average by the looks of things was all the way back in 2006.

 

Looking at other winters with a December and January within 0.6C of average then winter 2000 was the next most recent other than winter 2006. 

[Weather26]

4.9 to the 22nd 

 

1.3c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.4c above the 81 to 10 average?

Edited January 23, 2015 by Weather26

[Summer Sun]

4.9 to the 22nd 

 

1.3c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.4c above the 81 to 10 average?

 

Yes 0.4c is what I get it at

[TonyH]

My 5.0c in with a chance then