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January 2015 CET forecasts


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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

It seems that the only sub zero day of the month had been adjusted upward to 0.0C, so our run without a day below 0C continues.

 

Below is a graph of the daily CET before and after corrections with the difference.

 

JPV9a0f.png

 

Below is the daily CET compared to the historical averages and extremes

 

lG5vFBS.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Another above average month, but much nearer average than many we have seen over the last 18 months. Would be good to know the difference between 1-15 and 16-31, certainly a month of two halves.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Bang on for me if its official. 

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Another above average month, but much nearer average than many we have seen over the last 18 months. Would be good to know the difference between 1-15 and 16-31, certainly a month of two halves.

January to me really felt like a repeat of December, the only difference was that January was a little more extreme with a milder first half than a colder second half. Overall both months pretty much can be summed up as a pretty average winter fare, though in both months the milder periods seemed to edge out the colder ones.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

Damn bloody corrections!!!  i was there and now I'm 0.3c out... :cray:  Oh well!

 

Congrats,  WEATHER26, WEATHER-HISTORY, SUMMER BLIZZARD, DUNCAN McALISTER, A WINTER'S TALE :)

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

This January came in just 0.4c lower than 2014

 

2014 4.8c

 

2015 4.4c

That's why last January felt so cold the wind chill last winter was unbearable at times.

As it was wet most of the time it didn`t help.

Edited by Snowyowl9
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Noticed that this was corrected to 0.0 degC, so no sub zero CET daily means this year yet.

Yesterday is, provisionally, -0.1C. Whether this remains so after corrections is the question though.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Another above average month, but much nearer average than many we have seen over the last 18 months. Would be good to know the difference between 1-15 and 16-31, certainly a month of two halves.

 

If you take the first half as 1-15 and second half as 16-31, then it was 6.1, 2.8.

 

If you prefer 1-16 and 17-31, then it was 6.0 and 2.7.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

If you take the first half as 1-15 and second half as 16-31, then it was 6.1, 2.8.

 

If you prefer 1-16 and 17-31, then it was 6.0 and 2.7.

 

Thanks for the stats - quite a contrast, but not quite a classic switcharound month. Feb 2009 and 2012 were very much switcharound months, cold halves and very mild second halves.

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Results are in.

 

Competition

5 players got it spot on this month.

 

Weather26,  Weather-history,  summer blizzard, Duncan McAlister and A Winter's Tale

 

However with 4.4c being on average there are no bonuses in place for guessing the right or wrong side of average.

 

In the Seasonal comp, the top 3 is Weather-history, DAVID SNOW and Weather26

 

While overall the top 3 is Weather-history, DAVID SNOW and DeepSnow with Weather26 in 4th

 

Jan 2015 CET.pdfJan 2015 CET.xls

 

Stat Zone

The Baseline and average CET are both 4.4c, while the average entry was 4.2c, taking away the netting off effect of the entries the average error was 1.0c

 

The correlation was -0.26c so an advantage for entering later, while the 4th quartile entries were again the best with an average of 60 accuracy points, compared to 40 pts of the first quartile.

Edited by J10
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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom

Yet again, not a classic winter month but at least we avoid another record warm month after that very warm start.

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

Results are in.

 

Competition

5 players got it spot on this month.

 

Weather26,  Weather-history,  summer blizzard, Duncan McAlister and A Winter's Tale

 

However with 4.4c being on average there are no bonuses in place for guessing the right or wrong side of average.

 

In the Seasonal comp, the top 3 is Weather-history, DAVID SNOW and Weather26

 

While overall the top 3 is Weather-history, DAVID SNOW and DeepSnow with Weather26 in 4th

 

attachicon.gifJan 2015 CET.pdfattachicon.gifJan 2015 CET.xls

 

Stat Zone

The Baseline and average CET are both 4.4c, while the average entry was 4.2c, taking away the netting off effect of the entries the average error was 1.0c

 

The correlation was -0.26c so an advantage for entering later, while the 4th quartile entries were again the best with an average of 60 accuracy points, compared to 40 pts of the first quartile.

 

 

I had 4.2 post 59 not 5 ????

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Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

Yet again, not a classic winter month but at least we avoid another record warm month after that very warm start.

We had lots more in the way of colder zonality this jan,there was one or two exceptional mild nights which if those were not in the equation the CET would`ve been nearer to January 1984,seas are warmer to then though so pretty good.

Edited by Snowyowl9
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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

^ True but you revised to 5.0 in post 102. -- table guy

:oops:

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