January 2015 CET forecasts

[summer blizzard]

12z daily's for my postcode (so add on a little for the country as a whole).

 

17th-23rd

 

1.5

0.5

-1.5

-1.5

-1 (only so warm because it's snowing)

-1.5

-3

 

The period therefore averages -0.93.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 2.1C while maxima were around 4C, so 6.1C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at:

5.9C to the 17th (2.1)

5.6C to the 18th (1.0)

5.3C to the 19th (-1.0)

5.0C to the 20th (0.5)

4.8C to the 21st (-0.2)

4.6C to the 22nd (1.4)

4.4C to the 23rd (-1.4)

4.3C to the 24th (2.3)

4.3C to the 25th (4.6)

[Weather26]

6.2c to the 16th

 

2.7c above the 61 to 90 average

[damianslaw]

Good to see the CET is now on a downward trend, and January 2015 at least what be as mild as January 2014.

[CongletonHeat]

Good to see the CET is now on a downward trend, and January 2015 at least what be as mild as January 2014.

 

No it isn't

Edited January 17, 2015 by CongletonHeat

[damianslaw]

No it isn't

 

 

I thought 6.2 was lower than 6.3 in mathematics? Yesterday it was 6.3, today 6.2, and certainly the next few days will be below average - so a downward trend in CET value for the month will occur.

[stewfox]

Global Warming's latest entry on TWO:

After 11 consecutive days above average today marks the first day of what is likely to be a period of at least 9 consecutive below average days.

The CET mean for the 9 days starting today is currently forecast to be 0.76C by my calculations. That is a genuine cold spell and is the coldest 9 day period since January 2013.

Monday will be the coldest day due to some very low overnight minimums on Sunday night.

Temperatures may return to average for the final 6 days of the month but nothing warm on the horizon at the moment.

Overall the CET mean is currently expected to finish exactly in line with the 1971-2000 mean of 4.2C.

Meaning my 4.3 looks pretty close.

 

But 4.2c would be spot on ? 

 

 

4.2c for me

 

[CongletonHeat]

I thought 6.2 was lower than 6.3 in mathematics? Yesterday it was 6.3, today 6.2, and certainly the next few days will be below average - so a downward trend in CET value for the month will occur.

I meant it isn't good to see.

[Weather-history]

1916 was a very late winter kicking off in the last week of Feb with a fair bit of snow and continuing in the same vein into March.  !917 in contrast had a February that was cold throughout, but for the most part dry

It was also a very early winter, just look at the CET for November 1915. Imagine if we got that this November? It was a split winter with the worst of the "winter" outside the winter! It was a period of extremes November 1915 to March 1916.

[Timmytour]

It was also a very early winter, just look at the CET for November 1915. Imagine if we got that this November? It was a split winter with the worst of the "winter" outside the winter! It was a period of extremes November 1915 to March 1916.

Good spot!    One of only 11 Novembers since 1700 colder than any of the ensuing winter months, three of which occured in the decade 1910-19 while the only one since then was November 88.

Only 1782 had a colder November than 1915

 

Edited January 18, 2015 by Timmytour

[Summer Sun]

6.0c to the 17th

 

2.5c above the 61 to 90 average

Edited January 18, 2015 by Summer Sun

[summer blizzard]

With the models backing away from a swift and easy breakdown, can anybody post the Jan 13 CET at say 5 day intervals as it's a reasonably similar month with regards to the temperature profile.

[kold weather]

Looks like a reasonable cold period that is coming up, as SB has said the breakdown is being pushed back somewhat now, and whilst its never very cold, if the spell lasts long enough we are likely to see the CET coming down towards average by the end of the month, though I think it may come in a smidge above still, especially as models like the GFS tend to under-do max temperatures in W/NW type airflows.

Edited January 18, 2015 by kold weather

[Timmytour]

With the models backing away from a swift and easy breakdown, can anybody post the Jan 13 CET at say 5 day intervals as it's a reasonably similar month with regards to the temperature profile.

JAN 2013 RUNNING MEAN CET AVERAGE

8th..8c..Cold set in

12th..6.2c..Bitter cold set in

19th..3.6c

25th..2.7c..end of spell

31st..3.5c

Edited January 18, 2015 by Timmytour

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is -1.3C while maxima look like reaching about 4C, so 5.7C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

5.4C to the 19th (0.6)

5.2C to the 20th (1.3)

5.0C to the 21st (0.5)

4.8C to the 22nd (0.8]

4.5C to the 23rd (-1.7)

4.3C to the 24th (-2.0)

4.1C to the 25th (-0.7)

4.0C to the 26th (2.0)

3.9C to the 27th (2.6)

 

 

With the models backing away from a swift and easy breakdown, can anybody post the Jan 13 CET at say 5 day intervals as it's a reasonably similar month with regards to the temperature profile.

 

With the forecast CET above used after the 17th.

 

[summer blizzard]

Very interesting. Thanks.

[Snowyowl9]

JAN 2013 RUNNING MEAN CET AVERAGE

8th..8c..Cold set in

12th..6.2c..Bitter cold set in

19th..3.6c

25th..2.7c..end of spell

31st..3.5c

As cold as 2013.

[Timmytour]

As cold as 2013.

That IS 2013

[Snowyowl9]

That IS 2013

Oh so it is lol,will it be as low as that this month possible.

[Summer Sun]

5.7c to the 18th

 

2.2c above the 61 to 90 average

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

It's coming down!!

[Froze were the Days]

It will be going back up after Friday!!

[Timmytour]

It will be going back up after Friday!!

 

Not completely ruling out my 6.4c

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 5C quite a difference. Latest GFS run shows the cold spell on it's way out on Friday a pause Saturday then very mild on Sunday

[Timmytour]

With, after this brief cold clip, the models tending towards the mild side again, I'm thinking that the pattern of Daily CETs looks a little like what we had in 1957.

I hope it's not history repeating itself as the February of that year was very undistinguished!!