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January 2015 CET forecasts


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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Table of January CET averages and extremes

(this will appear again in the scoring thread, with all your entries added on New Years Day)



11.6 .. warmest daily CET mean (3rd, 1932 and 23rd, 1834)

8.0 ..
7.9
7.8
7.7
7.6
7.5 ... warmest January (1916)
7.4
7.3 ... second warmest (1796 & 1921)
7.2
7.1 ... fourth warmest (1834)

7.0 ... fifth warmest, and warmest since 1834 (2007)
6.9
6.8
6.7
6.6
6.5
6.4
6.3 ..
6.2 ..
6.1

6.0 ..
5.9 ..
5.8 ..
5.7 .. 2014 CET
5.6 ..
5.5 ..
5.4 ..
5.3 ..
5.2 ..
5.1 ..

5.0 ..
4.9 ..
4.8 ..

4.7 .. --- average 2001-14 ----
4,6 .. 

4.5 ..
4.4 .. --- average 1981-2010 -----
4.3 ..
4.2 .. --- average 1971-2000 -----
4.1 ..

4.0 ..
3.9 .. --- average 1901-2000 ----
3.8 .. --- average 1961-1990 -----
3.7 ..
3.6 ...
3.5 .. ... 2013 CET
3.4 ..
3.3 ..  --- average 1659-2014 -----
3.2 ..

3.1 ..

3.0 ... --- average 1801-1900 ----
2.9 ..  --- average 1701-1800 ----
2.8 ..
2.7
2.6 ... --- average 1659-1700 ----
2.5 ..
2.4 ..
2.3 ...
2.2 ...
2.1 ...

2.0 ...
1.9 ..
1.8 ..
1.7 ...
1.6 ...
1.5 ...
1.4 ... coldest past 27 yrs (2010)
1.3 ...
1.2 ...
1.1 ..

1.0 ...
0.9 ...
0.8 ... coldest past 30 yrs (1985, 1987)
0.7 ...
0.6 ...
0.5 ...
0.4 ...
0.3 ...
0.2 ...
0.1 ...

0.0 ...
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4 ... last subzero (1979)
-0.5
-0.6
-0.7
-0.8
-0.9

-1.0 ... twelfth coldest (1695)
-1.1
-1.2
-1.3
-1.4 ... eleventh coldest (1940)
-1.5 ... tied for eighth coldest (1709, 1838, 1881)
-1.6 ... seventh coldest (1776)
-1.7
-1.8
-1.9

-2.0 ... sixth coldest (1716)
-2.1 ... fifth coldest, and coldest 20th century (1963)
-2.2
-2.3
-2.4
-2.5
-2.6
-2.7
-2.8 ... fourth coldest (1740)
-2.9 ... third coldest (1814)

-3.0 ... second coldest (1684)
-3.1 ... coldest January or month (1795)

-7.7 ... coldest daily Jan or any CET mean past 30 yrs (12th, 1987)
-8.4 ... coldest daily Jan or any CET mean in past 148 yrs (23rd, 1963) -- this was the coldest day in any month and in any Jan since -9.3 on 4 Jan 1867)

-11.9 ... coldest daily Jan or any CET mean, 20th 1838

____________________________________________

 

Enter the contest by midnight New Years Eve, penalties apply from then to end of 3 Jan 2015 which is the absolute deadline.

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

I don't think we are going to see deep cold, but maybe fleeting cold snaps

 

3.1c please.

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Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl

5.8c

 

Not convinced this winter will deliver. Wont be as horrific as its predecessor, but one to forget all the same.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

Going to go all out because why not? -0.7C please ;)

If not the OPI team have a lot to answer - January is paramount to this winter's success. I foresee a significant cold potentially very snowy blast from the East. with little or no mildness at best average.

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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
On ‎19‎/‎12‎/‎2014 at 15:50, SteveB said:

I don't think we are going to see deep cold, but maybe fleeting cold snaps

 

3.1c please.

Even this would be a lovely improvement over these last 4 rubbish winter months.  Alas on the other hand...

 

A new year but same old mild rubbish yet again...  8C  :(  Last sub -3.0C January in 1795.  Last sub -2.0C and -1.0C January in 1963.  Last sub 0C January in 1979.  Last sub 1C January in 1987.  Last sub 2C, last sub 3C and last sub 3.5C January in 2010.

Edited by Lettucing Gutted
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Posted
  • Location: South Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, cold, cold and errrr......cold. I am, unashamedly, a cold fan.
  • Location: South Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth

2.6 please :)

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Posted
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
  • Weather Preferences: hot summers; frigid winters; golden fall; bright spring
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts

3.0 please

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Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

Already! Winters ticking away :smiliz65:

Certainly no guesses for another 10 days given the atmosphere at present.

Edited by TonyH
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

If you would have asked this question not so long ago then I would have been going VERY low, I just hope that by 31st Dec i have changed my mind again back to significant cold, we will wait and see.

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Posted
  • Location: Nottingham, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and sunny
  • Location: Nottingham, UK

4.8c for me, another slightly above average month similar to this month. Another forgetful winter I think.

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Posted
  • Location: Stockport
  • Location: Stockport

Roger's list is a reminder of how potentially cold January is - it's quite amazing that the coldest December wouldn't even crack the top dozen coldest Januaries.

I'm going to hang on submitting my entry, but it's nice to think that the peak of winter is yet to come.

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

Oh what the hell, I'll go for 1.9C - cold start, slight relaxation of cold mid month, bitter end...

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Given the absolute mess the last 10 days of December are shaping up to be, I am reserving judgement.

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

Given that we've not had a below average month in about a year, I'm gonna stick with the trend. 

5.0C, cool start, mild rest.

Edited by Backtrack
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Posted
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: bright & frosty/snowy; summer: hot and sunny.
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland

-1.0ºC for me please.

 

  :cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Valencia, Spain or Angmering, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: 22-38C in summer with storms, cold in winter with some snow/or 15-25C
  • Location: Valencia, Spain or Angmering, West Sussex

2.1C for me please.

Edited by 95 Degrees
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Below is the January CET, with the 30 year average in red and the linear trend in black.

 

xyIdAWf.jpg

 

 

December is likely to finish somewhere between 5.0C and 6.0C. For Decembers within that range, the average of the following January is 3.8C.

 

The linear trend over the entire record is +0.48C per century, following this trend gives a January CET of 4.1C this year.
The linear trend since 1850 is +0.53C per century, following this trend gives a January CET of 4.3C this year
The linear trend since 1950 is +2.5C per century, following this trend gives a January CET of 4.9C this year.
The linear trend over the last 50 years is +1.7C per century, following this trend gives a January CET of 4.7C this year.
The linear trend over the last 30 years is +3.6C per century, following this trend gives a January CET of 5.0C this year.
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