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Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas


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Unfortunately, there needs to be a recognition that if we share at *this tentative juncture* the exact nature of what we have as Ops Centre guidance, certain individuals will inevitably extrapolate/wa

If the UK can't get cold from an upstream pattern with a negatively tilted troughing setting up over the ne USA , indeed the best set up since two winters ago then I will seriously consider throwing m

The good news just keeps on coming!   Upstream pattern is falling into place to deliver what many people in this thread want to see, NCEP give us the best update since winter 2012/2013,  indeed I'm

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    Hi Steve and welcome.

     

    Great job, bet you've seen your fair share of snow.

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    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

    The experts are now mentioning the word stormy with increasing frequency now so it does look like we will get a battering next weekend, a stormy mix of heavy rain, severe gales and don't rule out leading edge snow as fronts bump into the newly formed cold pool covering the UK and depending on the track, all points north of the low centre could have snow since they would stay in cold air which would then be sweeping south as the low tracks away eastwards.

    all i say to that fun times ahead  and a  many late  night  model watching  glad im off work   till jan5 !!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

    GFS 12z has moved towards ECM at 120

     

    gfsnh-0-120.png?12ECH1-120.GIF?21-12

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    Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

    GFS OP moving towards the much malinged ECMWF, with the low further to the northwest but still set to bash eastern Britain..

     

    gfs-0-132.png?12

     

     

    The parallel will be interesting to see..

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    Posted
  • Location: Beverley, E Yorks, 19m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder - not necessarily at the same time!
  • Location: Beverley, E Yorks, 19m ASL

    Hi folks my name is Steve. I'm new on here.i have studied charts and data for over 30 years .I live on the North East coast of the uk in Bridlington. I'm expecting on and around the 27th to experience snow of which will include squally hail and maybe even thunder. I'm using a Samsung galaxy S5 so excuse some mis typing I love the technical aspects used on this site but I keep my forecasts of an easy read and never go beyond T+144 hrs for long range. For a living in the winter I plough and grit railway property .and weather and chart data plays a vital role in my job .sorry about posting here if it's the wrong thread. Many thanks Steve.

    Welcome to the forum Steve. Living in Bev, I hope you are right :yahoo: but I have to say that I am losing the faith this year. The recurring return of cold zonality and the persistence of the PV (or bit thereof) in the Greenland area has been a surprise, given the synoptics in October, but it is still there and those model-biased modelled Greeny heights never seem to materialise inside T120, so I think we will get much of the same for the remainder of the winter, unless there is a major pattern-change. This has been much-touted but each and every time it has then receded back into FI.

     

    NW winds are useless for snow here as I am sure they are in Brid: we need an easterly component and this has been and continues to be missing this winter...

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    In all honesty, this is a pretty poor chart.

    There was so much potential a few days ago, that it seems has gone. Polar vortex appears to be wanting to move back over Greenland In the longer term amongst the ensembles & the ops, and with pressure high to the south that spells trouble during winter.

    Edit: perhaps poor is not the correct word, but considering what was offered a few days ago, it is

    post-11585-0-51889700-1419178638_thumb.j

    Edited by Weathizard
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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    Rain to snow event on both the GFS op and P with the different tracks of the storm next weekend:

     

    P: post-14819-0-92176800-1419178932_thumb.p

     

    UKMO trying to flatten upstream: post-14819-0-64644400-1419179051_thumb.g

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    Posted
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow/Blizzards in Winter, Cool Summers. (I'm allergic to heat)!
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)

    In all honesty, this is a pretty poor chart.

    There was so much potential a few days ago, that it seems has gone. Polar vortex appears to be wanting to move back over Greenland In the longer term amongst the ensembles & the ops, and with pressure high to the south that spells trouble during winter.

    Edit: perhaps poor is not the correct word, but considering what was offered a few days ago, it is

     

    Completely disagree.

     

    I think you have made the cardinal sin and commented on a run wayyyy to early.

     

    This chart screams potential if you ask me....

     

    gfsnh-0-186.png?12

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    Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Exeter, Devon

    Heights trying to make their way into Greenland on the GFS 12z OP - very different to the previous run

    gfs-0-186.png?12?12gfs-0-192.png?6

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    Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND

    In all honesty, this is a pretty poor chart.

    There was so much potential a few days ago, that it seems has gone. Polar vortex appears to be wanting to move back over Greenland In the longer term amongst the ensembles & the ops, and with pressure high to the south that spells trouble during winter.

    Edit: perhaps poor is not the correct word, but considering what was offered a few days ago, it is

    -8 uppers in parts I don't know how you can say it's poor? Edited by snowice
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    Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL

    Welcome to the forum Steve. Living in Bev, I hope you are right :yahoo: but I have to say that I am losing the faith this year. The recurring return of cold zonality and the persistence of the PV (or bit thereof) in the Greenland area has been a surprise, given the synoptics in October, but it is still there and those model-biased modelled Greeny heights never seem to materialise inside T120, so I think we will get much of the same for the remainder of the winter, unless there is a major pattern-change. This has been much-touted but each and every time it has then receded back into FI.

     

    NW winds are useless for snow here as I am sure they are in Brid: we need an easterly component and this has been and continues to be missing this winter...

    Nice to meet you I was in Beverley today.i have to agree in part.lots of low pressure activity in the far North this year .no establishment of high pressure over eastern Europe. But this makes for a roller coaster of a winter which will be very interesting indeed. The charts will throw out alsorts of projections in FI.low pressure over southern Europe would make an interesting model watch.
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    Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire

    Much better nh and ridging on the 12z control!!!!

     

    Control hasn't even started its output yet.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    228 and the op is looking very interesting.  Setting up an decent easterly maybe???? 

     

    gfsnh-0-228.png?12 gfsnh-1-228.png?12

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Here we go again lol!!! Up she goes and another storyline begins

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    Posted
  • Location: Beverley, E Yorks, 19m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder - not necessarily at the same time!
  • Location: Beverley, E Yorks, 19m ASL

    Nice to meet you I was in Beverley today.i have to agree in part.lots of low pressure activity in the far North this year .no establishment of high pressure over eastern Europe. But this makes for a roller coaster of a winter which will be very interesting indeed. The charts will throw out alsorts of projections in FI.low pressure over southern Europe would make an interesting model watch.

    Agreed, and the UKMO is modelling this at the mo. However, this was the situation for about three weeks earlier this autumn/winter and we had an Easterly draw as you will remember. However, the low strength of the wind (hardly turned a turbine in our turbine infested part of the country!) and the warmth of the continent prevented this from developing into anything of note. As I posted earlier, this seems to be the pattern this winter: missed opportunities that came close but no cigar. I am a believer in patterns and I think this one is set now sadly.

     

    However, I do still have a little hope (and the model biases for Greeny highs in FI are showing themselves again this afternoon) as I remember the pattern change in early January 2011 from the deep cold we had been having to mild mush that lasted the rest of the winter. This could happen in reverse but the signs this year are always fleeting and disappear from run to run.

    Edited by Muffelchen
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    Posted
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers and cold winters with snow.
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL

    IF this storm does come off on the 27th, hats off to GFSp and GFS for consistently modelling. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Out at 210 on the parallel, the PV is looking in a state of some disarray!

     

    gfsnh-0-210.png?12

    Edited by Ice Day
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