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Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas


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Unfortunately, there needs to be a recognition that if we share at *this tentative juncture* the exact nature of what we have as Ops Centre guidance, certain individuals will inevitably extrapolate/wa

If the UK can't get cold from an upstream pattern with a negatively tilted troughing setting up over the ne USA , indeed the best set up since two winters ago then I will seriously consider throwing m

The good news just keeps on coming!   Upstream pattern is falling into place to deliver what many people in this thread want to see, NCEP give us the best update since winter 2012/2013,  indeed I'm

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

    Yes, a fair comment. It is still an interesting issue though because with a deep area of low pressure forecast to be sat in the southern end of the North sea I'd have expected at least some runs to build in high pressure to our ne in response.

    Much happier with both GFS and the P run. Finally height rises! These ideas look more logical and maybe we are closing in on some answers. GEFS will be interesting to see how many members go with this idea.

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    Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND

    Note it is further west by another 20 miles... Could be even more interesting.

    MIA

    It's very marginal it could go any way the track of that low won't be known till T 48 hrs forecasting nightmare Edited by snowice
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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    well the start doesn't look healthy one bit (at least at 10mb)

     

    gfsnh-10-384.png?6

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    I know it's many moons away, but just for fun, what a chart this is, low get ready to slide under the block, yummy

    post-16760-0-35678900-1419159073_thumb.j

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    What a diff a sleep makes!!!anyway not much change on gfs today but ecm seems to have taken a step back ;without sounding like a broken record imo with the pv looking to be gaining strength to the wnw then i think we need to look east after the projected cold shot up to the new year:i

    close in fi so maybe.??
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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    What do you mean?

    I would say he means the Strat vortex appears to be displaced due to recent warming. But I think you know that.

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

    I don't normally do this but I have a question to all on here. My friend is getting married next Saturday in the Lake District, 

    right next to lake windermere. I know a lot depends on the track of the low but is any precipitation likely to fall as

    snow up there? He is a coldie and would like to know. Many thanks in advance.

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    Posted
  • Location: Puddletown, Dorset
  • Location: Puddletown, Dorset

    Much happier with both GFS and the P run. Finally height rises! These ideas look more logical and maybe we are closing in on some answers. GEFS will be interesting to see how many members go with this idea.

    I remain anxious with the continuous stream of deep lows spawning off E Coast of America and tracking over Greenland. While that is the picture I cannot see sustained cold over W Europe.

    That said the low we are currently looking at for the UK could do useful things if it can help to establish low pressure over the Med - lets hope it manages to track

    that far south rather than stick over N Europe.

     

    Watching the jetstream with interest to see what is likely.

    Edited by egret
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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Further to my earlier post and something to look out for tonight.

     

    The reason for the improved GFS is the interaction between the shortwave running east and engaging the PV over ne Canada:

     

    Compare the GFS 00hrs at T126hrs:

     

    post-1206-0-75772200-1419158994_thumb.pn

     

    Then see what happens to the PV at T150hrs:

     

    post-1206-0-32850700-1419159022_thumb.pn

     

    You can see the weaker shortwave little interaction which means you don't manage to hold back the PV, the energy spills east.

     

    Now compare the GFS 06hrs run:

     

    So to T120hrs:

     

    post-1206-0-12961900-1419159051_thumb.pn

     

    Then to T144hrs:

     

    post-1206-0-75161400-1419159072_thumb.pn

     

    You can see the more developed shortwave more amplified, this engages the PV helps to shear some energy nw and you're left with a better downstream pattern.

     

    These early changes will domino quickly in to whether you get a colder northerly and then colder high pressure near the UK later.

     

    So tonight look out for what happens around that timeframe over the USA, the shortwave over there has a big knock on effect.

     

    If you want a better chance of colder conditions lasting we must see that more developed shortwave as this will result in a stronger block to the nw.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    A better run for cold prospects, GFSP finishes with a cold Polar Maritime flow. Im sure this will change with the track of the projected Storm for the 27th over future runs.

     

    gfsnh-0-360.png?6

    Edited by Polar Maritime
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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury

    I'd be very happy with that run, not a snowfest by any stretch but some low temps and very seasonal


    Exactly and to be honest, I don't care if people get inconvenienced or have their travel plans disrupted! It is winter and Iwe want some interesting weather at last!

    Oh I agree, some harsh extreme weather, for me 48 hours of 40 mph winds and heavy snow still wouldn't be enough

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Looks much better for the alps for snow with the high over France and spain looking much less stable

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    A better run for cold prospects, GFSP finishes with a cold Polar Maritime flow. Im sure this will change with the track of the projected Storm for the 27th over future runs.

     

    gfsnh-0-360.png?6

    I would say if heights rise To out NE as shown on the 06z, the Atlantic won't get in that quickly and we would likely see any lows slipping under the block. Imo

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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire

    I know it's many moons away, but just for fun, what a chart this is, low get ready to slide under the block, yummy

    Could it just as easily go over the top?
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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    GFSp: If the snow storm on 27 Dec does look on I say bring it on. There is nothing more annoying on this forum than people saying "be careful what you wish for, people are travelling" - of course the weather will do what it will do and in any event people wouldn't travel if that bad boy was forecast at T12hrs.

    Can you post a chart / model that is showing a "Snow storm" ? GFSp is the closest I have seen but it shows sleet or rain for 90% of the uk population. It was always looking like a slim chance for the south or low ground to see snow but now only tops of Pennines etc and Scottish mountains see a decent dump. I'm praying last nights ECM resurfaces!

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  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    I don't normally do this but I have a question to all on here. My friend is getting married next Saturday in the Lake District, 

    right next to lake windermere. I know a lot depends on the track of the low but is any precipitation likely to fall as

    snow up there? He is a coldie and would like to know. Many thanks in advance.

     

    Certainly a possibility, I would recommend thermals under the wedding dress! Most parts of the UK could see snow as the Storm tracks South. Very early days yet and something that needs keeping a close eye on.

     

    150-574UK.GIF?21-6 156-574UK.GIF?21-6144-574UK.GIF?21-6

    Edited by Polar Maritime
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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    Could it just as easily go over the top?

    If you look at when it exits the east coast its negatively tilted, it wouldn't get in as quickly as shown in the 06z. Purely conjecture anyway that far out, but one to watch as it is feasible.

    Jet heading south

    post-16760-0-01894700-1419160006_thumb.j

    post-16760-0-18179700-1419160199_thumb.j

    Edited by karlos1983
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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

    Certainly a possibility, I would recommend thermals under the wedding dress!

     

     144-574UK.GIF?21-6

    Ha ha, many thanks for your reply Polar Maritime :D

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    Certainly a possibility, I would recommend thermals under the wedding dress! Most parts of the UK could see snow as the Storm tracks South. Very early days yet and something that needs keeping a close eye on.

     

    150-574UK.GIF?21-6 156-574UK.GIF?21-6144-574UK.GIF?21-6

    but the truth be known every single model has the vortex grinding down over west greenland into canada whats amazed me is the crossed model agreement for this so id say cold snap.

     

    but futher cold spells looking a little worrying.

    everything that could go wrong is going wrong.

     

    we have an event to look forward to but not sure yet on wave activity into the strat and the possible warming hopefully that will give us hope into feb.

    mind you to see some snow would be nice.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    What do you mean?

     

    The temps over the pole and the still pronounced wave 1 and possible wave 2 it's also shifted it east.

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    but the truth be known every single model has the vortex grinding down over west greenland into canada whats amazed me is the crossed model agreement for this so id say cold snap.

     

    but futher cold spells looking a little worrying.

    everything that could go wrong is going wrong.

     

    we have an event to look forward to but not sure yet on wave activity into the strat and the possible warming hopefully that will give us hope into feb.

    mind you to see some snow would be nice.

     

    I think it's this 'event' which could be the turn around, Depending on it's track, As i've said before a few miles E/W will make all the difference. Much uncertainty lies ahead.

    Edited by Polar Maritime
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