Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas

[phil nw.]

Given the choice i would much prefer the ECM run for a more sustainable cold pattern.

It takes a little longer to get the cold south but i would be prepared to wait the extra day or 2 after Christmas for that to verify.

The difference is earlier with the GFS P breaking through the weak Atlantic trough drawing the Azores ridge NW which at first glance might seem ok but it doesn't hold for too long as it comes under pressure from the northern jet later.

The ECM solution, keeping the later ridge back and separate, sends more energy under the Greenland high and we see a decent omega block forming by day 8.

Edited December 20, 2014 by phil nw.

[Polar Maritime]

Yes agree there Phil reg the ECM, A better looking run for a more sustained cold spell in the long run.

Edited December 20, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[A.J]

So then, let's sum up what we've gleaned from the discussion over the past 5 pages or so..

 

It might snow

It might not

 

It might be cold

it might be hot

 

it might be windy

it might be calm

 

if the models were sentient

they'd be sent to the funny farm

 

[Cloud 10]

 

 but it's beginning to look as if the Gold Standard of modelling, the GFS, has got this call right.

 

 

 

:w00t:   http://www.specsavers.co.uk/

 

 

gfs 216 yesterday..  gfs 192 today..

[karlos1983]

To me and my untrained eye, it's not quite a climbdiwn from the ECM, but I woujdnt mind betting the GFS and the ECM move toward each other in the morning. To be honest it's really irrelevant and why people are getting so worked up about whether it has climbed down or not is mind blowing. it's all extremely fascinating to watch unfold, it doesn't really merit pathetic sniping. But maybe that's just me.

Edited December 20, 2014 by karlos1983

[phil nw.]

Yes agree there Phil reg the ECM, A better looking run for a more sustained cold spell in the long run.

Yup although the trend from all the models,including the 00z Ht anomals. is for some Atlantic ridging and a cold shot towards new year.

The Op runs are still sorting out the route but as i say if any of tonight's runs were to verify please let it be the ECM.

It even deserves a Christmas smiley! :smiliz19:

[cornish snow]

What happened to glacier point?

Used to love reading his posts,didn't understand a word of it but loved it just the same.

[10 Days Away]

What happened to glacier point?

Used to love reading his posts,didn't understand a word of it but loved it just the same.

 

 

He got a job somewhere and a condition was he stopped posting here.

 

Very good poster ....

Edited December 20, 2014 by TN26

[cornish snow]

He got a job somewhere and a condition was he stopped posting here.

 

Very good poster ....

Shame. Seems a bit harsh

[phil nw.]

What happened to glacier point?

Used to love reading his posts,didn't understand a word of it but loved it just the same.

He left NW sometime ago cn.

 

On another note let's keep posts sensible and around the Models please guys.

A bit of humour is fine but i have had to remove a couple of silly one liners which just clog the thread up.

 

Thanks all.

Edited December 20, 2014 by phil nw.

[Cloud 10]

What happened to glacier point?

Used to love reading his posts,didn't understand a word of it but loved it just the same.

 

He got snapped up by an unnamed company,although he did say he would lurk on here

occasionally....

[Mark Neal.]

What happened to glacier point?

Used to love reading his posts,didn't understand a word of it but loved it just the same.

 

He was snapped up by a company for weather forecasting i believe, he is missed in here greatly.

 

Interestingly all models do look better today if mid range-colder down the line potential, so reason to be more positive, but alot of water to flow under the bridge, ensembles should be interesting once again. 

Edited December 20, 2014 by Mark N

[lorenzo]

ECM anomaly plots are worth a look we are back in 'blackhole' territory, which is pretty resounding territory as far as evolutions go.

 

This at 240, development begins with the wedge at 144.

 

 

 

After the volley from Cohen last evening and musing around stratospheric control vs wave driving, IMO we really need to see WAF profiles from an Ensemble of models to have certainty in the flux forecasts, thereby JMA ways to go.

 

Regardless, ECM goes and bats it out of the park with the 1,2,3 again. With the control following the Deterministic since 00z yesterday when the Det flew out of the traps, who knows where it sits until the ENS later, awaited with interest. I like the JMA, as it is apparently the only model at present without various data transfer issues or  Det vs Ens conundrums, and goes out further than UKMO.  I think is on the case also, see 10hPa temps.

 

So many different threads of this to keep track of and when reading bear in mind along with different interpretation of runs, folks will be looking for different results at various time points.

 

Some will be reading looking for Xmas Day synoptics - SWrly draw versus benign frost, the post Xmas track of the low, the NAO block solution east - west, the resulting NH profile as a result of this block solution, a wave 2 split created by the EPO NAO combination, or a wholesale vortex assault leading to SSW.

 

Couple of analogs wrt. to GWO for review in relation to the post from Tamara earlier, as noted from one of the US experts on Twitter, these transitions are really on a 'super highway' and transferring quickly/ recycling rapidly.

 

Phase 2

 

Phase 3

 

Combined with 100hPa strat plot and there's the window for the anomaly. Await the ENS with interest and also hope we get a look at the strat ENS temps as a guide to a bit further down the line.

 

[Evening thunder]

It has. The silly blowtorch scenarios are gone and in its place we have a Christmas Day cold northerly followed by a re-load starting at T192 with a superb potential setup, the effect of which you can see at T216 which is an outstanding outstanding chart by any standards.

 

 

 

Assuming we now see GFS / UKMO etc being right then what will happen from here is that the ECM 48 hours interlude will shrink in line with GFS. They have massively backed down.

 

Game very very very much on folks

 

This is just my view but having watched all model runs in recent days I would definately not say the ECM has backed down.

 

It is still showing similar to what has been consistently advertised by its several recent runs, i.e a brief NW/N interlude around christmas, before a milder few days and a west based -NAO leads to a potential northerly later on.

 

Meanwhile the GFS has at time flip-flopped between northerlies with sub -10c uppers to minimal or no northerlies and Bartlett highs.. I think the Parallel has been quite consistent with a northerly but with considerable variation and not every run.

 

The GFS etc often were showing the northerly drift on Christmas day to be the start of a more potent northerly with no, or nearly no mild sector/interlude, which was first picked up solidly by the ECM if I recall correctly.

 

The later timeframe charts have shifted around a little, and the ECM this morning not as good as tonight with it looking more like a northerly toppler than a proper Greeny high, but differences at day 10? well blow me.

 

ECM 12z yesterday T+240:

Today T+216

Some notable differences there especially in the important Greenland area but a general theme of a northerly of sorts, not too bad for day-10

 

00z runs:

Yesterday: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2014121900/ECH1-240.GIF?00

Today: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2014122000/ECH1-216.GIF?00

 

Some shift but again not bad at all.

 

Of course the milder interlude before that, after a brief NW incrusion of cooler air around Christmas day has been consistently modelled.

 

GFS t+240 yesterday:

Also a very nice northerly set up there, but is it consistent?

 

GFS 12z today at t+216

Err... opps.

 

yesterday's GFS 00z: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2014121900-0-240.png?0

today's GFS 00z: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2014122000-0-216.png?0

 

Perhaps more agreement in the 00z's there, on a not very favourable pattern at that timeframe, but still some quite major differences.

 

It feels like the ECM perhaps comes in for too much criticism at times, because it is just about the top model on day 6 verification stats, it seems some expect it not to change out to the end of the run.

 

Of course I don't pretend to know which model will be right, and if the ECM is consistently wrong then that aint good.. but from the consistency of the models at the moment to me the ECM appears to be living up to its reputation.. that's just my opinion of course. 

 

Talking about todays 12z's, I'd actually prefer the ECM to be correct, as its T+240 chart looks a lot better than the GFS, even if we have to wait a little longer than the brief northerly on the GFS.

 

Edit: sorry if a little late to this discussion, or if the mods wanted to move things on, took a little longer to compile this post than I thought.

Edited December 20, 2014 by Evening thunder

[Jason M]

Why any of the posters referred to above would want to post this evening is a mystery to me :-(

ECM is by far and away better than both GFs runs tonight. I noticed snowman put the GFSP up and commented 'blizzards'. For the benefit of anyone who is interested in what the chart actually shows see the link below.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=168&mode=2&runpara=1

The GFSP and most of the ensembles are a road to knowwere tbh as the jet will simply override to the north and they are not particularly cold anyway. long run ECM is better, although I'd probably take GEM given the opportunity.

Edited December 20, 2014 by Jason M

[John Snow]

Why any of the posters referred to above would want to post this evening is a mystery to me :-(

ECM is by far and away better than both GFs runs tonight. I noticed snowman put the GFSP up and commented 'blizzards'. For the benefit of anyone who is interested in what the chart actually shows see the link below.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=2&runpara=1

The GFSP and most of the ensembles are a road to knowwere tbh as the jet will simply override to the north and they are not particularly cold anyway. long run ECM is better, although I'd probably take GEM given the opportunity.

l

It shows heavy snow sweeping the country between 156 and 174hrs with blizzard conditions, bank

[Stuie]

From the new GFS(P). Precipitation`s are not a weather trend prediction but..

 

Saturday 27th

Day after:

 

Notice how there seems to be a cold upper air plunge into Europe whereas the top chart only has rain, in 1 day.

[Timmytour]

As a relatively newbee I'm so lost in the tooing and froing of all the opinions and results from the different models.

The day the models all run a consistently similar outcome will be the day the different opinions on what they are showing will become minimal on here

[Mark Neal.]

From the new GFS(P). Precipitation`s are not a weather trend prediction but..

 

Saturday 27th

Day after:

 

Notice how there seems to be a cold upper air plunge into Europe whereas the top chart only has rain, in 1 day.

 Temps for the same time!

 

Would suggest cold air digging down from the N behind the weather system/ Cold air surging into Europe too. 

 

Edited December 20, 2014 by Mark N

[tinybill]

evening all just poped in between the dancing   come on Carline!!!   looks like we might get snow here  in the  uk by dec 27  a bit  late!!  back to the dancing

Edited December 20, 2014 by tinybill

[Jason M]

l

It shows heavy snow sweeping the country between 156 and 174hrs with blizzard conditions, bank

No it doesn't. It shows a rain deluge followed by some wet back edge snow. Away from hills you will be better served with a brolley than a sledge

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=156&mode=2&runpara=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=162&mode=2&runpara=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=168&mode=2&runpara=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=156&code=0&mode=2&runpara=1

[Snowy L]

So much shortwave drama to get through, the differences between the ECM and GFS even at 96 hours is huge.

[nick sussex]

evening all just poped in between the dancing   come on Carline!!!   looks like we might get snow here  in the  uk by dec 27  a bit  late!!  back to the dancing

I totally agree Caroline was fantastic and wiped the floor tonight, that showdance was incredible and really brave. If anyones wondering why I wasn't commenting on the ECM, even the models can't keep me from the best show on television! lol

 

Okay so having seen the ECM its an improvement and at least the direction of travel is positive, it does have a better looking block to the nw. Overall I'm a bit more optimistic tonight for colder prospects and so everyone will be spared one of my theatrical type tirades!

[Earth Wind and Snow]

ust a question for some of the more knowledgeable on here - I noticed on another site that the waters in the atlantic stretching from the gulf stream towards Ireland and UK are much colder than normal - do the models factor this in or will this have any effect on our weather? would these colder waters be of help if a cold spell develops for lowland snow or would this actually be a driver?

 

Hi

Can you post a link to this please? As far as I was aware, our local sst's were at a warmer anomaly by a couple of degrees...

Sorry can't post a link - I checked and it is on Exacta's fb weather page with a map showing much colder than normal sea temperatures currently stretching from gulf to Ireland / UK. I know I know, James Madden is a sensationalist at the best of times but leaving that aside, assuming this information is correct I was wondering how this might effect the models take on things 

 

Speaking of the models, there seems to be an upgrade tonight for cold prospects with ECM, JMA, NAVGEM and to a lesser extent GFS all showing a cold shot for Christmas Eve & Day, brief mild spell then a northerly setting in soon after Crimbo - I agree with other posters that the models such as ECM that delay the onset of cold are showing a better profile for extending the cold

 

EWS  

[swilliam]

No it doesn't. It shows a rain deluge followed by some wet back edge snow. Away from hills you will be better served with a brolley than a sledge

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=156&mode=2&runpara=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=162&mode=2&runpara=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=168&mode=2&runpara=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=156&code=0&mode=2&runpara=1

 

Would certainly be windy

and feeling cold

 

l

It shows heavy snow sweeping the country between 156 and 174hrs with blizzard conditions, bank

Bust as Jason says no real snow - this is maximum extent of lying snow - 50 cm in  the highlands but best for England is possibly a cm of probably wet slush.

ECM would bring in some proper cold which could lead to some decent snow at a later date. Problem is these 240 hrs charts are not verifying but I would still rather take this chance.

ECM still a mild outlier (along with the control)

Edited December 20, 2014 by swilliam