Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas

[Geordiesnow]

Best to compare yesterday's 12z ECM day 7 chart with today's day 6 chart to see if the ECM has "backed down".....

 

yesterday...ECM1-168.gif  today..ECM1-144.gif

 

And I think this post quite clearly shows it has NOT backed down, for me though, I do hope the ECM is right in terms of sustaining any height rises to keep any potential of cold going, the UKMO looks very similar also which is good so no model is going for GFS's breaking any height rises quickly at th moment. 

 

I think the ECM has been pretty darn consistent however it has been on the milder side of the ensembles but I wonder if it will gain more support?

 

I also be cautious that the UKMO model would follow what the GFS says also, I think its hard too tell what would happen next if I'm being honest 

[Duane S.]

ECM climbdown,end of. May be a bit of face saving going on by one or two having called it wrong early in the run.

 

Not to say it will verify but what we have after the conclussion of today's 12z suite is good step in the right direction

[John Snow]

I would happily sacrifice next Saturday for a sustained period of cold/very cold in the new year with lots of snow, the ECM looks the most promising for medium to long term sustained cold and snow

[stewfox]

I don't really see any downgrades, indeed I see upgrades since the 00z and as we all know, the main weather action kicks off next weekend so the Christmas period is the frosty calm before the wintry storm so to speak. Some areas could get a good dumping of snow both on the leading edge and to the north of the low centre.

 

All very confusing

 

S Murr I'll clean your car tomorrow if you make a post

[Mucka]

JMA @ 192 

 

 

 

Actually very similar evolution to ECM, just not as progressive.

Be nice for ECM to follow this tomorrow as the margins at 192 between a long fetch Southwesterly and Northwesterly are currently much too fine for my liking.

 

 

 

All this talk of an ECM climb down is nonsense.

Look how close the closed low is to phasing with the main trough as it did previously.

Edited December 20, 2014 by Mucka

[West is Best]

It's shifted.

 

As for that chart I was referencing I agree not the same

 

 

Thank you for admitting the two charts aren't the same. They are, in reality, very different. The ECM setup at T216 is excellent.

 

We should be very encouraged by the ECM shift, or for those who prefer 'nudge,' towards the GFS. Something between the two may be the best scenario as one or two have suggested. Following the initial cold we have a great reload now showing across the board at T216.

[AWD]

No evidence of sustained cold weather on the 12z GEFS YET, but a respectable cluster for a northerly over Xmas with a peak 30% chance of snow for London;



No doubt the threat will be much higher further north too.

Edited December 20, 2014 by Polar Maritime
To remove deleted quote.

[Lincstim]

As a relatively newbee I'm so lost in the tooing and froing of all the opinions and results from the different models.

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM climbdown,end of. May be a bit of face saving going on by one or two having called it wrong early in the run.

 

Not to say it will verify but what we have after the conclussion of today's 12z suite is good step in the right direction

I believe the term is run to run variation when considering charts beyond 7/8 days.

The ECM has shown the same evolution in the 5-7 day range for the last 3 runs, there are charts to back this up. There is no guarantee that the high can hold up there to our north west at days 9/10. Nice to see but it could upgrade/downgrade in the coming runs.

Edited December 20, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[bluearmy]

ecm op looks very consistent. of course the last frame or so is going to differ but its general evolution remains very similar, run to run. HOWEVER, remember december (was it 2013 or 2012) when the op went to T96 on the inland runner upstream and it was wrong. the mean said no, as did the other models (ukmo jumped at T120).  the greeny high never happened and the pattern was flat as per gfs. (monkeys and typewriters again?!)

 

anyway, we're now left with an ecm op which looks far better for sustained winter in the longer term and given the way its evolved to this point, you would have a tad more confidence than usual fi's. but then its predicated on a greeny height rise and ecm/greeny height rise ...........

 

by the way, the best way to compare output is to use meteociel 'active live compare' just above the chart. you can flick around all the runs for the same timescale.

 

i expect we must see some more ens jumping to the op solution for next sunday. as i mused yesterday - 'do all routes lead to rome?'

[Man With Beard]

I think it is all going to fall together for us coldies.

 

It will be a merge of the ECMWF and the GFS parallell,

 

Storm low will be just to the west of Ireland, in-between two solutions...

 

Cold snap will come in sooner than on ECMWF but not last quite as long as EC....

In recent years, that's been my attitude - when models are consistently poles apart, how many times do we see the result being somewhere in middle? Quite often I think. So I think your call of a halfway house between the ECM and the north sea bomb seems good. That probably means the storm peaking further west, so maybe the usual suspects getting the storm action (Wales, Ireland, Scotland) - but cold still coming after, merely delayed a day compared to GFS e.g. 28th/29th.

[West is Best]

IT WAS THERE ON 0z!

 

 

The 12z is slightly different and by far the best solution. Similar to the 0z just maybe cleaner.

Just to be clear about this:

 

You can surely see that this:

 

 

is significantly upgraded by the 12z?:

 

That 12z is MASSIVELY better. Look at the height rise to the north-west and the angle of attack from the low northerly. This is so so so so so much better. 

 

The ECM, which it's amusing to see some people defending, has been all over the shop during this pattern change. This isn't to suggest that the GFS storm for 27/12 will materialise quite as significantly as it has been progged, but it's beginning to look as if the Gold Standard of modelling, the GFS, has got this call right.

 

Edited December 20, 2014 by West is Best

[Man With Beard]

I think it is all going to fall together for us coldies.

 

It will be a merge of the ECMWF and the GFS parallell,

 

Storm low will be just to the west of Ireland, in-between two solutions...

 

Cold snap will come in sooner than on ECMWF but not last quite as long as EC....

In recent years, that's been my attitude - when models are consistently poles apart, how many times do we see the result being somewhere in middle? Quite often I think. So I think your call of a halfway house between the ECM and the north sea bomb seems good. That probably means the storm peaking further west, so maybe the usual suspects getting the storm action (Wales, Ireland, Scotland) - but cold still coming after, merely delayed a day compared to GFS e.g. 28th/29th.

Still interested in Christmas Day - is there really no chance of a trailing trough or front passing from north to south in the colder air? Lower heights to the east for T120 on tonight's ECM I believe.

[Duane S.]

As a relatively newbee I'm so lost in the tooing and froing of all the opinions and results from the different models.

 

As has already been said once you know those who speak sense, those who think they do but in reality don't and the 2 or 3 (trolls) who enjoy posting when we have 'downgraded' charts, then there is a predictable pattern to it all...

Edited December 20, 2014 by s4lancia

[Stuie]

I think it is all going to fall together for us coldies.

 

It will be a merge of the ECMWF and the GFS parallell,

 

Storm low will be just to the west of Ireland, in-between two solutions...

 

Cold snap will come in sooner than on ECMWF but not last quite as long as EC....

I agree Matt and the ECM is looking like my theoretic chart from the ukmo 5 days ago.

 

IMO we need a super Russian high just to bolster the Scandi heights and try to block and redirect any LP systems from the north. Still a lot of heights to our south though but at least there is an attempt at ridging up towards Greenland and their heights are more eastern.

 

What a chance we have. Sorry I have not used any fancy language and terminology I will say though the predicted Eurasion SSW could start to help things going west? another potential height scenario for blocking? Would be nice to hear peoples layman`s terms on that point.

[Mark Neal.]

ecm op looks very consistent. of course the last frame or so is going to differ but its general evolution remains very similar, run to run. HOWEVER, remember december (was it 2013 or 2012) when the op went to T96 on the inland runner upstream and it was wrong. the mean said no, as did the other models (ukmo jumped at T120).  the greeny high never happened and the pattern was flat as per gfs. (monkeys and typewriters again?!)

 

anyway, we're now left with an ecm op which looks far better for sustained winter in the longer term and given the way its evolved to this point, you would have a tad more confidence than usual fi's. but then its predicated on a greeny height rise and ecm/greeny height rise ...........

 

by the way, the best way to compare output is to use meteociel 'active live compare' just above the chart. you can flick around all the runs for the same timescale.

 

i expect we must see some more ens jumping to the op solution for next sunday. as i mused yesterday - 'do all routes lead to rome?'

 

Fantastic summary from B.A. Those confused as to what is going on should take note on his posts,along with Nick Sussex.

Climbdown or not, the ECM OP looks much better this evening for mid-long range cold spell potential. Here's hoping!

 

We await the ECM ensembles again with anticipation!  (Come on Mr Murr, waiting for your interpertation of where we are at with current output!)

Edited December 20, 2014 by Mark N

[Polar Maritime]

I've just deleted a post that does not belong anywhere on this forum..A nudge just to keep to friendly discussion please. It is Christmas  :smiliz19:

 

Thanks.

Edited December 20, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Mucka]

 

Just to be clear about this:

 

You can surely see that this:

 

 

 

is significantly upgraded by the 12z?:

 

 

That 12z is MASSIVELY better. Look at the height rise to the north-west and the angle of attack from the low northerly. This is so so so so so much better. 

 

The ECM, which it's amusing to see some people defending, has been all over the shop during this pattern change. This isn't to suggest that the GFS storm for 27/12 will materialise quite as significantly as it has been progged, but it's beginning to look as if the Gold Standard of modelling, the GFS, has got this call right.

 

 

 

I can't be bothered posting the history of the charts with an explanation of how GFS has followed ECM with the modelling of the shortwave to the NW etc so let's just say I could not possibly disagree more   :smiliz39:

 

And how do you know GFS has got anything right yet? And which GFS run is right exactly?

 

Ah well opinions eh?

 

I'm off for a night out and some fun  :w00t:

[West is Best]

Incidentally, in the midst of a debate about the lack of value in ECM let's not forget that 12z GFS is a bloody good run for cold lovers. This is worth repeating given the wrist-slitting over the past 48 hours. The initial cold spell is good enough, but the reload at T165 onwards is superb:

 

Edited December 20, 2014 by West is Best

[bluearmy]

i just compared the T240/T216 over the past four op runs and i cant see how the model can be more consistent at that range. its not like some chap in reading is drawing the stuff - its bilions of 1's and 0's over hours and hours to generate the output.  a bit of a trough extension here and a slight ridge misplaced there. its done extremely well. 

 

thats not to say its right though! infact, given the complexity of the atlantic phasing and upstream amplification, i'd be astounded if any model is currently showing the correct solution.

 

i made the error of stating that the ecm op is never wrong if it repeats four times on that december debacle i referred to. once bitten ..............

[Downpour]

Any news from the ECM?

[Backtrack]

Said I wouldn't post in here, but I lied.

The way I see it, EVERY model (except short to medium range models such as the UKMO) are showing heights building over Greenland, via WAA, or another route. And whilst we may not have cross model agreement on an exact time stamp for a nailed on cold spell, we have fantastic agreement across 95% of major models for Mid-Atlantic blocking at some time in the near future.

In the famous words of Glacier Point

'Get set, it's coming'.

Edited December 20, 2014 by Backtrack

[Mark Neal.]

Any news from the ECM?

Rolled out from 6-7pm. Rollercoaster as usual, with different interpretations of what it is showing/comparisons to fellow models/previous op runs.

Ensembles out within 45-60mins, interesting times!

[ANYWEATHER]

I really do think that there is plenty of scope for Wintry weather on the cards tonight from ecm and gfs. Christmas day looks very seasonal temps, after that it does get a bit messy but the potential for some very cold weather looks likely, Interesting model viewing to say the least.....I think the Christmas period will keep weather forecasters on their toes and some big headaches as well.  :smiliz19:

Edited December 20, 2014 by ANYWEATHER

[West is Best]

Right last post from me for a bit, but I'm hugely encouraged by the 12z runs. Memo to self though is that I want to see this trend continued through tomorrow and nailed on Monday. Until then, despite what I see as a shift by ECM, and a definite upgrade by GFS, the overall message to self is to stay circumspect. It's looking good though

 

Edit. Snap Anyweather  :smiliz19:

Edited December 20, 2014 by West is Best