Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas

[West is Best]

 

 

My point is, that's a climbdown. Period.

 

Superb chart.

 

Game on folks.

[Frosty.]

I don't really see any downgrades, indeed I see upgrades since the 00z and as we all know, the main weather action kicks off next weekend so the Christmas period is the frosty calm before the wintry storm so to speak. Some areas could get a good dumping of snow both on the leading edge and to the north of the low centre.

[Snowman.]

It has. The silly blowtorch scenarios are gone and in its place we have a Christmas Day cold northerly followed by a re-load starting at T192 with a superb potential setup, the effect of which you can see at T216 which is an outstanding outstanding chart by any standards.

 

 

 

Assuming we now see GFS / UKMO etc being right then what will happen from here is that the ECM 48 hours interlude will shrink in line with GFS. They have massively backed down.

 

Game very very very much on folks

 

It's no different to the 0z run other than that you can see a different time period.

 

 

ECM 216

 

 

GFS 216.

 

ECM is late and doesn't develop that monstrous low in the north sea.

 

the 0z run and 12z weren't bad runs just delayed it much further.

[Banbury]

ECM operational rock solid - It's the GFS and GFSP that are flipping left and right...

Shall we see where it sits in the ENS.

[Mark Neal.]

216HRS. looks a cold flow from the North to me. 

 

[shaky]

Gota agree looks.like ecm is gona back down very slowly here and if it does its gona have huge egg on its face!! The ecm is a defo improvement on the earlier output and the heights are back across greenland!! So ecm on its own at the moment! !

[John Snow]

ECM is better for sustained cold but it has programmed next weekends winter storm blizzard totally wrong

The other models have it in the North Sea, the ECM has it off the North west coast of Scotland

[Snowman.]

 

 

 

 

My point is, that's a climbdown. Period.

 

Superb chart.

 

Game on folks.

 

 

IT WAS THERE ON 0z!

 

 

The 12z is slightly different and by far the best solution. Similar to the 0z just maybe cleaner.

[Banbury]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014122012/ECH1-240.GIF?20-0

 

I wonder if this will be on the mild side in the ENS

[Captain Shortwave]

 

 

 

 

My point is, that's a climbdown. Period.

 

Superb chart.

 

Game on folks.

 

Todays day 7

Yesterday day 8

Pretty darn close to me. The possibility of a northerly following around day 9/10 has always been a possibility. To put it in perspective the ECM operational is very close to it's morning run, even to day 10.

The ECM/GEM have their own evolution, the surface features vary but the route is the same. GFS and parallel have their own trend. The UKMO at day 6 as I said earlier looks like taking that route. ECM day 10 chart is fantastic btw, but it is a operational day 10 chart so the usual caveats apply.

The JMA and Navgem sit between the 2 ends. Talking about major climb-downs and egg on face moments should apply to the 4-7 day range, not at day 10 where run to run variation is wild.

Edited December 20, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[West is Best]

216HRS. looks a cold flow from the North to me. 

216hrs2.gif  216hrs.gif

 

Indeed! Previous ECM runs have shown no height rises like that to the north-west and no potential for that sort of set up at T216. The ECM finales to their runs were awful, now they're full of cold hope.

 

This is a superb outcome. We not only have a cold Christmas setup, there's a powerful cold reload a few days later. GFS and UKMO keep the mild interlude far shorter than ECM and that, I have to say, feels like a much more likely scenario. But the point is that all models now have a cold sandwich in place: cold, milder filler, cold.

[10 Days Away]

ECM is better for sustained cold but it has programmed next weekends winter storm blizzard totally wrong

The other models have it in the North Sea, the ECM has it off the North west coast of Scotland

 

We don't know this though as it hasn't happened yet.

[Mark Neal.]

240hrs ECM. ends with cold air coming further down the country from the North, Nice. 

 

[Swave Snow]

IF the ECM was to back down it would follow suit and send the daughter low ESE along the UK. However it doesn't eject fast enough and merges with the low northwards.

 

 

We get this  instead of this 

I think you will find that what West is Best means is that ECM is crawling into line with the other models. That doesn't mean it will look exactly the same at this stage. But it means that it will show less of its previous runs style and more a watered down version of its former self or what the other models are showing. And the expectation is that it will incrementally move over time to be in line with the other models.

And that from a coldies point of view is what they would want and thank the good lord that's what seems to be happening

[West is Best]

IT WAS THERE ON 0z!

 

 

The 12z is slightly different and by far the best solution. Similar to the 0z just maybe cleaner.

If you think that chart is similar to the current T216 then can I give you directions to your nearest Specsavers?!

[swfc]

Ecm at 240hrs is a quality chart not withstanding its in fi.Pv is pushed east and pressure coming out of the usa is higher.Also nicks comment earlier may give credence to a better outlook later.Anyone not seeing potential there should try another hobby.no white xmas as such but im not concerned if the outlook improves into january ete.Things may be on the up!!!

[Cloud 10]

Best to compare yesterday's 12z ECM day 7 chart with today's day 6 chart to see if the ECM has "backed down".....

 

yesterday...  today..

[Barry12]

Looking at day 9 and 10 on the ECM I'm starting to wonder if the ECM would actually be the better solution for cold.

[Geordiesnow]

It has. The silly blowtorch scenarios are gone and in its place we have a Christmas Day cold northerly followed by a re-load starting at T192 with a superb potential setup, the effect of which you can see at T216 which is an outstanding outstanding chart by any standards.

 

 

 

Assuming we now see GFS / UKMO etc being right then what will happen from here is that the ECM 48 hours interlude will shrink in line with GFS. They have massively backed down.

 

Game very very very much on folks

 

But the cool Northerly was always on for xmas eve/day, it has consistently been forecast that a high will ridge in and couple with the slow moving and deepening shortwave near Iceland, it will bring mild SW'lies and then the ECM teases us with something potentially a bit colder following. 

 

In one way, I prefer the ECM run to the GFS run in terms of the long term but that is not good enough and it is ashame we can't have it both ways really. 

[West is Best]

Best to compare yesterday's 12z ECM day 7 chart with today's day 6 chart to see if the ECM has "backed down".....

 

yesterday...ECM1-168.gif  today..ECM1-144.gif

 

Erm, I'm not looking at Boxing Day my friend ...

 

Look at the height rises on the T216 and T240 charts and the results across the UK. Yes there's still a milder interlude on ECM, but that will now almost certainly shrink. ECM climbdown.

[TEITS]

If you think that chart is similar to the current T216 then can I give you directions to your nearest Specsavers?!

May I suggest mate that the ECM 12Z is exactly the scenario I described since yesterday morning. Just to summarize again, cold Xmas day, Boxing Day, mild SW,lys for 27th,28th, cold returning 28th, 29th.

 

The ECM OP  might be an outlier yet again for the 27th,28th but I believe its on the right track.

[Roger J Smith]

All models have made major changes to their scenarios for days 8-10. The GFS has dropped its major low in the North Sea, the GEM suddenly wants to explode a low over Ireland and the ECM has now fallen in love with retrogression and deep cold advection after its ritual Boxing Day warmup.

 

These are all new trends to ponder, all pretty much mutually incompatible so that only one could possibly be right, or maybe none.

 

But there is a commonality in terms of deepest cold being pushed further back and looking more sustained. I think that's a good trend and if the onset details prove to be wrong (maybe this deeper cold just locks in quickly without much fuss after the apparently undebated cold dry Christmas) so much the better if you like cold and a bit of snow around the edges.

 

Still waiting for what I believe might be the actual solution, vaguely shown on 06z GFS perhaps, namely cold sets up, milder air tries to push north but is quickly cut off with a frontal wave rather than this deeper low near Iceland or Ireland, and then cold locks in for a while.

 

Whatever happens, it might need a reload around 3-5 Jan then could be quite a dominant cold pattern for the rest of the winter with the signs of Greenland blocking increasing.

 

 

[John Snow]

We don't know this though as it hasn't happened yet.

True but it is on its own compared with the other models

If ECM calls it right I will take back every bad word i have ever said about it

[Matty M]

I think it is all going to fall together for us coldies.

 

It will be a merge of the ECMWF and the GFS parallell,

 

Storm low will be just to the west of Ireland, in-between two solutions...

 

Cold snap will come in sooner than on ECMWF but not last quite as long as EC....

[Snowman.]

If you think that chart is similar to the current T216 then can I give you directions to your nearest Specsavers?!

 

 

 

 

 

I think you need the directions more than me mate.

 

GFS - Northerly, blizzard conditions.

 

ECM - South-Westerlies, dry.

 

 

ECM 0z

 

 

 

Yesterdays 12z

 

 

GFS 12z yesterday.

 

 

 

The ECM has been solid 

 

 

As for that chart I was referencing I agree not the same but still cold. It has shifted further west.

 

 

Plus that's 10 days away and we're struggling with 6 days.

 

 

The GFS has flipped and flopped like a fish on land. While the ECM be an outlier it has higher resolution and support from the control which leads to me that's on to something.

Edited December 20, 2014 by SN0WM4N