Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas

[Barry12]

GEFS mean looks good at day 7

 

[Banbury]

Except when its shows cold and the others mild.

Yep

 

Nothing wrong with that old one

[swfc]

So still know clarity so far today then?Could really do with an update from Ian but anyway.Looking after the post "projected"xmas cold-cool spell deep in fi there imo has a look of a move towards the east showing interest.Looking at the nh profile i have a gut feeling "sorry its not ssw,qbo,nao ete"related but it looks like the building blocks are building towards our next hope of a cold shot coming from the continent.The pv imo looks to be picking up and becoming west based and any push into greenland looks for the foreseable to be a non starter.Hopefully now the ecm shows a 1060 mb high and bitter nne winds!!!

[Banbury]

This is not directed at you Backtrack,

 

Clearly the forum needs active members to ensure it earns well. (The more unique visitors the more money you can get from advertisers) but on the flip side writing the first thing that enters someones head isn't always worth writing down and just confuses the issue and clogs up the forum)

 

I have been astounded before when someone with 1000+ has posted a a question about something that even I knew the answer to. This proves the point I think

I asked a question early but because that many posts were being added the flip over of pages was so quick it got missed. That is what happens when cold weather is a possibility

[A.J]

It's not scaring people away at all. I'm afraid post like your original one, although well meaning, confuses people and that puts people off posting. Just let the runs unfold and then voice an opinion. I don't think he implicitly said your post was rubbish. It was a light hearted post in general. No malice intended.

 

Shame you won't be posting any longer. If you cannot take criticism for a post on a weather forum, perhaps it would be better for you not to post?

 

Awaiting the ECM to see if the puzzle can be solved. I doubt it will though

I wouldn't worry about it chaps....I get shouted at, used and abused, receive abusive pm's (and that's just from the wife....lol).....

 

On an entirely separate note, the moderator christmas charity donation fund is now active, all donations can be sent to my representative in Nigeria, along with your address, mobile phone number, bank account details and credit card number...

 

...and with that, back to the model chat and stuff.....cheers!  :smiliz19:

[bobbydog]

Hardly fair post BD, I contribute what I can, I don't know a great deal, but when I see something that I think may add some sort of value or discussion point to the thread, I'll post it. If every user reading the topic were looking for posts from the likes of Nick Sussex, Ian F & Lorenzo etc, then there would be about 50 pages just overlooked, just because some members are new to this, or like myself have a fairly limited knowledge base compared to some others, does this mean I'm talking as you say 'absolute b*!!@xs'? I don't see you contributing to this thread. 

 

It's posts like yours that prevent people from posting, or scare people away from this thread. 

 

So tell me, because I prematurely called out the 12z as a mild run when it showed MILDER synoptics for Christmas & Boxing Day, when compared to the 06z, how does that make my post rubbish?

 

I'm done posting in this thread now. Have fun.

i never said your post was rubbish. nothing wrong with saying what you see. its when certain people comment on charts and contradict what they are showing and others who are just subtly trolling. as it happens i have never put you in any of those 3 categories above. posting within your level of knowledge is fine. which is why, as you say, i dont personally contribute much to this thread. my post wasnt aimed at you and i apologise if you thought it was

[Eskimo]

The ECM is taking a while to come out as well, ECM are probably scared to release it just in case people start literally pulling their hair out. 

[Tim Bland]

For those in the South hoping for snow from this deep low ... the GFS ensembles only give London between 10-15% chance. Pennies and areas to the north east look best placed IMO.

[shaky]

The ecm doesn't wana come out now!! Its getting ridiculous now with all these problems recently with the models!!

[bluearmy]

For those in the South hoping for snow from this deep low ... the GFS ensembles only give London between 10-15% chance. Pennies and areas to the north east look best placed IMO.

London shows 25/30% next weekend tim? Admittedly it's probably back edge stuff. Anyone have the daytime maxes for the para post T192? Not showing on meteociel graph.

[bradymk]

The ecm doesn't wana come out now!! Its getting ridiculous now with all these problems recently with the models!!

out to 96h on wetter

edit: sorry 72h

Edited December 20, 2014 by bradythemole

[winterof79]

Yep

 

Nothing wrong with that old one

Mushy are you that old?

[shaky]

out to 96h on wetter

just checked its still the 00z run!

[bluearmy]

just checked its still the 00z run!

Wz is slower than meteociel so you'll need to be patient

[IDO]

just checked its still the 00z run!

Try: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsjmaeur.html

Edit... That was JMA. Still not out on Wetter.

Edited December 20, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Meteociel damn slow as well, I view on there

[nick sussex]

Some interesting comments from NCEP from their latest update:

 

...UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...
HONESTLY...THE UNCERTAINTY IS BEYOND DAY 7---AND HOW THE DEEP
SURFACE CYCLONE 'RESHUFFLES' THE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE HIGH-LATITUDE WESTERN HEMISPHERIC
CIRCULATION.

 

One would think the implication from what NCEP are saying is that they're expecting some more longer term pattern change.

 

The full discussion can be found here and they go into quite a lot of detail, they seem to have problems with both the GFS and ECM.

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html
 

[Mair Snaw]

maybe the run is so good they are scared to release it for fear of all the mass ramping.....

[Summer Sun]

ECM out to t120 now

 

 

Doesn't seem far off its 00z run so far

 

T144 shows a fairly settled boxing day chilly though with a frost possible

 

Edited December 20, 2014 by Summer Sun

[IDO]

ECM at D6: 

 

[The Northern Ramper]

One thing is for certain, the models always struggle with a pattern change to cold in Winter.

[Snowman.]

And it says no! The ECM solution just delays the cold not rids it all together!

 

Edited December 20, 2014 by SN0WM4N

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM does not backtrack with the cold air pushing SSW into the Atlantic trough. The run so far is pretty identical to this mornings.

UKMO for comparison

The difference is the ridging around that Atlantic low, the UKMO blocks the cold air from Greenland from taking the route which the ECM

takes. It's ECM/GEM vs GFS/UKMO in the mid range. Still a cold outlook for week 2 is possible either way.

So potentially the seventh mild outlier on the bounce from the ECM. All of which push these surges of cold air at this date too far west. Day 7 is where is really becomes clear.

The ECM does bring wintry showers to coastal areas of Scotland though. Maybe some showers down north sea coasts later, debatable on the type of precipitation though.

Edited December 20, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[cornish snow]

maybe the run is so good they are scared to release it for fear of all the mass ramping.....

Or so bad,they are worried about prozac reserves

[Frosty.]

No to what exactly?

We get a cold and frosty Christmas and boxing day with no mild mush.

I really despise these type of posts that just say things like the ecm says no.

Edited December 20, 2014 by Frosty.