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Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas


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What is that blue one?.. FNO or FNG, it seems to be doing well of late.

 

Edit- After looking again, its FNO :doh:

I think it's NAVGEM and it's the worst performing model. If it's had a good day, it's just proof that those monkeys and typewriters will eventually produce Twelfth Night!

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I don't know why so many are despondent as this never looked like anything other than a cold snap, the eye candy charts were always in FI as they usually are. I sense a return to the mobile westerly regime we've been accustomed to throughout this month, and IMO it looks like a pattern that could be with us for some considerable time until events in the Stratosphere play ball with us and at least give us a possible bite of the cherry.

Oh I'm not sure about that. There have been more cold runs than mild over the past few days. With last winters disappointment (not for me, I enjoyed the storms) I can understand the frustration of some, with it being Christmas, that's enhanced the disappointment. For me, I'll be pretty happy if the ECM is proved correct, as I'll always struggle to have faith in the GFS, it would be worrying if the ECM got this all wrong, got the feeling we will be seeing eye watering charts from the ECM in January, and I for one want to have faith in charts out to 144, which really only the ECM is capable of historically.

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It looks like a bit of everything from ECM this morning but nothing dominates too long

 

Milder for England and Wales Sunday and Monday

 

ECU0-48.GIF?20-12

 

Becoming more average Tuesday and Wednesday

 

ECU0-96.GIF?20-12

 

Chilly on Christmas day but probably fairly sunny for most

 

ECU0-120.GIF?20-12

 

Cold again Boxing day

 

ECU0-144.GIF?20-12

 

Then it becomes milder during next weekend

 

ECU0-192.GIF?20-12

 

Then it becomes colder again as the year ends with northerly winds with each colder spell the risk of snow would increase

 

ECU1-216.GIF?20-12ECU0-216.GIF?20-12

ECU1-240.GIF?20-12ECU0-240.GIF?20-12

 

If it went further on it looks like it would turn milder again with high pressure moving in from the west

Edited by Summer Sun
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I think it's the mildness next weekend which continues to set it apart from its ens. Something has to give eventually.

And gav, I could easily argue that what follows day 10 op could be a very wintry scenario, rather than the ridge just sinking se. There is potential all over the NH plot though at day 10, it won't happen like that anyway. Infact, day 8 won't look like the op does!

Edited by bluearmy
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Looking at the GEM mean at D8, although the op goes in the general GFS direction, it is clear that they are split 50:50 with respect to the ECM or GFS scenario. The spread at that time highlights this: 

 

post-14819-0-83899000-1419065516_thumb.p

 

The ECM mean at D8 also hints at a split clustering of solutions: post-14819-0-25535400-1419065579_thumb.g

 

The GEM mean trough looks like it is transient but the members still show 75% having it over the UK at D10. The GEFS have only 25% by D10 so no clues there :cc_confused:

 

Again the OP & C from ECM are in a smaller milder cluster at D9+:

 

DeBilt: post-14819-0-72825200-1419066476_thumb.p 850s op and mean: post-14819-0-31407200-1419066495_thumb.g post-14819-0-50785900-1419066506_thumb.g

 

So although the op could be onto something, its members remain unconvinced. Really mixed signals and hard to make sense of, though the general trend is for the wave from the Pacific Ridge formation (from around D9) to push the US trough east and sink/slide east any Greenland High, so any cold is purely transient, variations on how quick. The GFS op makes more of the D5-8 height rises (caused by the US ridge moving east) but it looks unlikely the two episodes of WAA will marry and get us a more sustainable ridge.

 

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I think it's NAVGEM and it's the worst performing model. If it's had a good day, it's just proof that those monkeys and typewriters will eventually produce Twelfth Night!

 

:clap:

 

What is that blue one?.. FNO or FNG, it seems to be doing well of late.

 

Edit- After looking again, its FNO :doh:

 

I think the FNO is another name for the NAVGEM which replaced the NOGAPS.

 

Aren't acronyms great? :D

 

 

edit.again,just had a look through the first 10 gefs ensembles at 168 hrs,but the dizzying array of solutions is giving me a headache,so i'm off for some breakfast. :smiliz64:

Edited by Cloud 10
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Oh I'm not sure about that. There have been more cold runs than mild over the past few days. With last winters disappointment (not for me, I enjoyed the storms) I can understand the frustration of some, with it being Christmas, that's enhanced the disappointment. For me, I'll be pretty happy if the ECM is proved correct, as I'll always struggle to have faith in the GFS, it would be worrying if the ECM got this all wrong, got the feeling we will be seeing eye watering charts from the ECM in January, and I for one want to have faith in charts out to 144, which really only the ECM is capable of historically.

Same here I have always put more faith in ECM finding it a steadier model (not that its necessarily correct this time).

Edited by TonyH
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Quite a few have mentioned it will be cold on Christmas Day but GFS has been showing these sort of maxima:

attachicon.gifviewimage.png

Only cold over Scottish Highlands. The 'cold' we are in today as modelled a week ago has turned out rather mild (8 to 10c max today in reality), so the Big Day may end up no 'colder' than average.

 

 

It's not mild this morning, lovely fresh morning after the warmth of a few days ago, also you've forgot to show minima, darkness vastly outweighs light this time of year, models nowhere near as bad as some are saying for xmas eve onwards.

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Save yourselves much stressful watching of volatile model runs and just wait for the Meto to give a clear lead on upcoming weather.

Right.....to the horses for Saturday's entertainment

.let's see if i can pick a winner or two.

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It's not mild this morning, lovely fresh morning after the warmth of a few days ago, also you've forgot to show minima, darkness vastly outweighs light this time of year, models nowhere near as bad as some are saying for xmas eve onwards.

Come on Eugene no lower than 4c for most last night its hardly cold is it! Currently 7c here mild for a December morning (even if it feels chilly)

post-2595-0-55541700-1419069049_thumb.jp

Above chart is last nights lows!

Apologies if OT but relevant given my original post re model evolution over the course of a week.

Edited by TonyH
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I think it's NAVGEM and it's the worst performing model. If it's had a good day, it's just proof that those monkeys and typewriters will eventually produce Twelfth Night!

 

:laugh: You're such a witty man BA.. 

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Save yourselves much stressful watching of volatile model runs and just wait for the Meto to give a clear lead on upcoming weather.

Right.....to the horses for Saturday's entertainment

.let's see if i can pick a winner or two.

Hope you did nt pick a White Christmas :w00t:

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I think some need to remember that the models don't make the weather they simply give some trends albeit some perform better than others. The weather will do what it pleases in the end. Interrun chopping and changing happens and can easily flip back to more favoured solutions if you are looking for cold that is.

Prozac needs to be taken I think. As others have said the NH profile is looking conductive for something and I would say unless we are guaranteed blow torch SW winds at T0 then chill a little. This is after all the START of winter.

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NOAA's latest extended forecast discussion ( updated as 6am GMT this morning )still favours the higher amplitude scenario for the US so continue to follow 19/12 EC & 19/18 GEFS Ens mean.

"THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURES AND 500 MB PROGS

HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC ECMWF

ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH SMALLER INPUT FROM THE 18 UTC GEFS MEAN AND 18

UTC GFS/12 UTC ECMWF TO ADD MORE DETAIL. THIS BLEND IS WELL

CLUSTERED NEAR GUIDANCE COMPOSITE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT OFFERS

A BIT MORE AMPLITUDE AND DECENT WPC CONTINUITY THROUGH LATER NEXT

WEEK AT LONGER MEDIUM RANGE TIME SCALES. THIS STRATEGY SEEMS

CONSISTENT WITH UPSTREAM FLOW AMPLITUDE. RECENT DETERMINISTIC

MODEL RUN-RUN CONTINUITY ISSUES HAS IMPROVED ENOUGH TO NOW LEND

NEAR AVERAGE PREDICTABILITY LEVELS."

There is no mention of either EC or GFS Operational models in their discussion.

Full details here:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

As stated too many times previously, too much faith ( and emotion ) is placed on each Operational model run when experience tells to follow ensemble guidance. Ops are ok for identifying "possible" new trends and for fantasy eye candy purposes only.

Keep the faith....it is after all the most magical time of the year !

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I think some need to remember that the models don't make the weather they simply give some trends albeit some perform better than others. The weather will do what it pleases in the end. Interrun chopping and changing happens and can easily flip back to more favoured solutions if you are looking for cold that is.

Prozac needs to be taken I think. As others have said the NH profile is looking conductive for something and I would say unless we are guaranteed blow torch SW winds at T0 then chill a little. This is after all the START of winter.

Agreed to me the overall synopsis is for a reasonable mix of Winter weather.

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So at the present time the ecm is king and seems pretty good at predicting track of shorwaves, and we all know that the us is going into the freezer and this will unfortunately give the Atlantic a charge and we can already see evidence of this with huge lows spawning which won't let heights build and also the PV looks like heading back home so with all these so called background signals still not doing anything for us can't help but feel a little bit disheartened and worried about January prospects. Those lucky Americans sooooo jealous.

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well nothing is certain thats for sure.. i dont think i can remember such a volatile period.

a strong greenland high, a strong azores high trying to link and a strong jet stream squeezing between them trying to prevent pressure rising to our east. what an interesting dynamic! its no wonder that the models chop and change, and even if we get a cold snap, its unlikely imho to be a long one, more like the couple of days the gfs 00z suggests.

i see no pattern change, just more volatile swings between mild and cold with the possibility of some very cold, and some very mild.

i do note however that the noaa 500mb chart suggests the atlantic ridge becomes closer to the uk on its 8-14 dayer

 

post-2797-0-98768600-1419070638_thumb.gi post-2797-0-69686400-1419070653_thumb.gi

 

which would suggest any northerly cold blast would be short lived and perhaps into the new year a chart like this

 

post-2797-0-38742000-1419070726_thumb.gi

 

is most likely. of course thats not what most here would like to countenance (like a monsoon in june) but opinions dont sway what the weather does, for me its looking very turbulent with no real settled weather into any one pattern.

ps... nice to see some level headed comments regarding the unpopular ecm output... of course it shouldnt be ignored just because it doesnt show what one wants it to show.
 

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So at the present time the ecm is king and seems pretty good at predicting track of shorwaves, and we all know that the us is going into the freezer and this will unfortunately give the Atlantic a charge and we can already see evidence of this with huge lows spawning which won't let heights build and also the PV looks like heading back home so with all these so called background signals still not doing anything for us can't help but feel a little bit disheartened and worried about January prospects. Those lucky Americans sooooo jealous.

Not to forget it was on the mild side of the ENS

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