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Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas


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Unfortunately, there needs to be a recognition that if we share at *this tentative juncture* the exact nature of what we have as Ops Centre guidance, certain individuals will inevitably extrapolate/wa

If the UK can't get cold from an upstream pattern with a negatively tilted troughing setting up over the ne USA , indeed the best set up since two winters ago then I will seriously consider throwing m

The good news just keeps on coming!   Upstream pattern is falling into place to deliver what many people in this thread want to see, NCEP give us the best update since winter 2012/2013,  indeed I'm

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Well at 192 hours ecm seems light years from the other models???Pressure to the south is higher but how can there be so much distance ie output????

 

There isn't. It is all about the timing of the shortwave energy and how they merge with the longwave pattern.

If they do not merge together as with ECM a cold spell is pretty much locked in. If they merge a milder Atlantic spell is pretty much locked in. (at least for a time though I believe we would have another opportunity fairly soon within the New year but don't want to keep chasing when we have cold spell so close we can almost feel it)

Edited by Mucka
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The ECM is out on it's own tonight, that's not to say it's wrong of course. A look at the other models at day 8...

 

gfsnh-0-192.png?12gfsnh-0-192.png?12JN192-21.GIF?19-12ncmrwfnh-0-192.png?00

 

ECM:

 

ECH1-192.GIF?19-0

 

Based on this I would say the ECM solution is very unlikely, if the ECM mean looks more like the other models, we could almost discount this. But you never know.

Edited by Barry95
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Tonight's ECM demonstrates why I don't share the excitement on here today.

GFS has been all over the place recently while ECM has been a little more consistent, yes the MetO is on board to a limited extent but this route to cold is extremely unusual and extremely risky with forecasted uppers ranging from -9c to +9c at day 9!

It's all FI and I suspect we will get a less severe but still cold outcome in the end .

Andy

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Yes disappointing from the ECM.The ridging held further west leaving the UK on the milder side of the Atlantic jet.

It looked underwhelming early doors with poor warm air advection into Greenland

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014121912/ECH1-120.GIF?19-0

Everything then is delayed and we get a poor orientation and placement of the Atlantic high later.

The uncertainty continues,all eyes on the later ens.

Edited by phil nw.
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I personally would have been very surprised if we had cross model agreement at T192 and even if we did, there would inevitably be a model tomorrow morning that dumped the idea of cold instead!

 

ECM goes wrong between T144 and T168 and doesn't allow the block to ridge between the lows, causing them to phase together instead. We end up with a belt of low pressure stretching from the southern mid Atlantic right up to Siberia! It looks wrong to be honest, but that doesn't mean it is of course.

 

Plenty more solutions to be played out over the weekend I imagine!


Can't remember ever seeing a chart like the 216 hrs from tonight's ECM.

 

attachicon.gifECH1-216.GIF

 

I challenge someone to find one like it from the archives. :smiliz23:

Yes, that huge elongated belt of low pressure just looks so odd, I really can't remember seeing anything like it before. For that reason, I hope it's got it completely wrong!!

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Lots of nice deep snowdrifts with all the strong winds and arctic air, something we were not able to say of the poor recent winters. Another day and what a difference to the mood in here 24 hours ago..I think a major wintery spell is on the way with prolonged longevity once we get through the mild start to next week..then let the good times roll,frost, snow, ice, blizzards, drifting = Heavenly :-)

Where? When? Wheres the charts to support this? It is not a done deal id have thought youd have learned that by now! :p

 

Edited by Osbourne One-Nil
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It's lucky theres a swear filter in here otherwise I fear I may have got a ban! lol

 

At this point given every other output has the shortwave about to be ejected at T144hrs then I think we should view tonights ECM horror show as someone sitting down and plotting every synoptic interaction that would lead to the worst possible outcome and dishing it out as the operational run.

 

It's very unlikely this operational run will verify, sadly the ECM after a big move from the other models has decided to deliver a big let down.

 

As the key shortwave is showing at T144hrs I'm sure this will be resolved in the morning. It's a nerve shredding wait for many in here but in all honesty I cannot see this run verifying as shown, it might be an initial western based negative NAO but not the series of events from tonights ECM.

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Can't remember ever seeing a chart like the 216 hrs from tonight's ECM.

 

attachicon.gifECH1-216.GIF

 

I challenge someone to find one like it from the archives. :smiliz23:

The ECM is very messy even half way through, I think it's trying to flip to a more believable solution and getting lost along the way.  Well, it's a solution, but I don't like it :-D 

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Is not the ecm 12z severely out of sync with met office update..I rest my case..next please..seriously, the ecm has been wrong so often, me thinks it's wrong again,over to mogreps met office fergie bbc expert.

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It's lucky theres a swear filter in here otherwise I fear I may have got a ban! lol

 

At this point given every other output has the shortwave about to be ejected at T144hrs then I think we should view tonights ECM horror show as someone sitting down and plotting every synoptic interaction that would lead to the worst possible outcome and dishing it out as the operational run.

 

It's very unlikely this operational run will verify, sadly the ECM after a big move from the other models has decided to deliver a big let down.

 

As the key shortwave is showing at T144hrs I'm sure this will be resolved in the morning. It's a nerve shredding wait for many in here but in all honesty I cannot see this run verifying as shown, it might be an initial western based negative NAO but not the series of events from tonights ECM.

Indeed nick,guess its a red for you then!!!
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Can't remember ever seeing a chart like the 216 hrs from tonight's ECM.

 

attachicon.gifECH1-216.GIF

 

I challenge someone to find one like it from the archives. :smiliz23:

Yes very bizarre looking together with the T192hrs. I'm minded to call it synoptic garbage, I've see many western negative NAO set ups but nothing like the drivel dished out by tonights ECM.

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