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Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas


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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

    Ukmo looks nice! ! Parallel looks like it wants to try to undercut the low now to the south west! ! Normal gfs is okay similar to last run!! Heights building nicely across greenland! !

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    Unfortunately, there needs to be a recognition that if we share at *this tentative juncture* the exact nature of what we have as Ops Centre guidance, certain individuals will inevitably extrapolate/wa

    If the UK can't get cold from an upstream pattern with a negatively tilted troughing setting up over the ne USA , indeed the best set up since two winters ago then I will seriously consider throwing m

    The good news just keeps on coming!   Upstream pattern is falling into place to deliver what many people in this thread want to see, NCEP give us the best update since winter 2012/2013,  indeed I'm

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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

    Ukmo looks nice! ! Parallel looks like it wants to try to undercut the low now to the south west! ! Normal gfs is okay similar to last run!! Heights building nicely across greenland! !

     

    Regarding the UMKO, looks another dry run for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day if that's what you mean. Where we go beyond then will be a most relevant question of course, hopefully the ECM will provide better guidance as to the final week of 2014.

    Edited by gottolovethisweather
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    Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

    Good set of runs so far on the GFS, GFS P, and UKMO. Both GFS's look very interesting at day 8

     

    gfsnh-0-192.png?12gfsnh-0-192.png?12

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

    Massive massive improvements this evening! ! Look at that eastward shift at 180 hours and look at that beauty of a greenland high and not in fi either! ! Dont think the eastward shift is done yet!! Shortwave could undercut even more favourably to the southwest!! Much more similar to the ecm mean!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    gfs-0-216.png?12

     

    Stronger Greenie, longer cold should be the idea from there 

     

     

    GFS(P)....Chaos...but look a Greenland, will that block disappear quickly or is there a polar Low gonna drop on us?  Block to sink on this run I reckon

     

    gfs-0-210.png?12

     

    BFTP

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    12Z gets there eventually be it to late for xmas.Great looking charts be it in fi

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    Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Rotherham - 114M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold! Winter :)
  • Location: Bramley, Rotherham - 114M ASL

    Nice model runs so far I think tonight. Is this snow for many on the GFS(P) on the 27th? 'Full' low pressure over us in what looks to be -4 to -6 uppers;

     

    gfs-0-198.png?12gfs-1-198.png?12

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent

    Nice model runs so far I think tonight. Is this snow for many on the GFS(P) on the 27th? 'Full' low pressure over us in what looks to be -4 to -6 uppers;

     

    gfs-0-198.png?12gfs-1-198.png?12

     

    Look what's to follow as well, that will be true artic air. Certainly a disturbed spell of weather to come. What ever precipitates, it's going to be wild.

    Edited by Jason H
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    Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft

    Decent charts coming up from the new pretender GFSp - wants to bring in a stormy scenario at T168hrs followed by a snowy near-blizzard for some.

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    A very nice run from the GFSP this afternoon, The potential for some very stormy weather between Christmas and N/year, With the lobe of vortex dropping much further South bringing very cold E/N/E flow over the UK. Perfect recipe for blizzards.

     

    gfsnh-6-192.png?12gfsnh-2-198.png?12gfsnh-0-228.png?12

    Edited by Polar Maritime
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  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex

    Forget the "is it going to snow in my backyard" for a second and look at those wind arrows! Dangerous storm that could be which I should imagine ties in with Ian F twitter comments earlier. Gales, (storm surge in North Sea) Rain and northern Snow in that system, not nice.

    Edited by tcc
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    Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft

    GFSp has been the bullish pick of the bunch of late – will be interesting to see how the new kid on the block verifies in this tricky forecasting period. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Duddingston, Edinburgh
  • Location: Duddingston, Edinburgh

    If that GFS P came off North Midlands northwards (esp with elevation) is going to get a real dumping on the 27th....im meant to be driving from Edinburgh to Bristol that day :unknw:

    Edited by JoeShmoe
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Nice model runs so far I think tonight. Is this snow for many on the GFS(P) on the 27th? 'Full' low pressure over us in what looks to be -4 to -6 uppers;

     

    gfs-0-198.png?12gfs-1-198.png?12

    Also very strong winds which Ian F alluded to... :good: slight dilution caused by LP of the uppers but that chart could result in blizzards for many. It'll go down in history, definitely best to see if these trends continue to show, furthermore good to see the narrowing timeframe.

    We've been stuck in a rut lets hope we've blasted through. :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Washington - Tyne and Wear
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Washington - Tyne and Wear

    A very nice run from the GFSP this afternoon, The potential for some very stormy weather between Christmas and N/year, With the lobe of vortex dropping much further South bringing very cold E/N/E flow over the UK. Perfect recipe for blizzards.

     

    gfsnh-0-228.png?12

    I know what people are saying about the possible disruption but seriously if that chart verifies any where close to that I will be one happy NW member :-) :-)

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Nice model runs so far I think tonight. Is this snow for many on the GFS(P) on the 27th? 'Full' low pressure over us in what looks to be -4 to -6 uppers;

     

    gfs-0-198.png?12gfs-1-198.png?12

    And evidence of what IF was alluding to earlier ... a very nasty storm appears in the North Sea - yet again. East coast: sleet + severe gales. Other areas: Snow + severe gales = BLIZZARD 

     

    Edit: ok, I have been beaten to the point many times over in just the last 60 seconds!!!

    Edited by rjbw
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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    I know what people are saying about the possible disruption but seriously if that chart verifies any where close to that I will be one happy NW member :-) :-)

     

    Yes maybe blizzard conditions in places. Full on severe Winter conditions there. With -8 uppers dropping over all the UK as the Low sinks South.

     

    gfsnh-6-192.png?12

    Edited by Polar Maritime
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    Posted
  • Location: Duddingston, Edinburgh
  • Location: Duddingston, Edinburgh

    A weather bomb with winds, snow and storm surges, Nathan Rao has just wet himself ....

     

    The UKMO has that same shortwave ejected ahead of the LP at T+144

    Edited by JoeShmoe
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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    I wonder who will get the real cold (as per usual): 

     

    post-14819-0-85743500-1419008505_thumb.p  

     

    Clue: That is the US under there!!

    Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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    Posted
  • Location: Kent
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy winters
  • Location: Kent

    Well that's your classic meaty sausage and 2 balls set up lol.

    Or hands up who drew genitals on the blackboard?

    attachicon.gifgfsnh-0-192.png

    Looks Like Gonzo From The Muppets!!!!   Sorry Mods. Couldn't Resist

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    Just when you wanted the models to get some unity, GEM pushes the pattern further east:  post-14819-0-38100600-1419008701_thumb.p

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