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Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas


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Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire

    I love all things weather but I'm not massively clued up like everyone in here. Love reading and waiting with anticipation (just hoping we get something that resembles winter)

    I've said before that me been on here and reading all these posts is like watching a foreign movie but without the subtitles.

    I love it even though most of IT goes way over my head lol

    Anyhow less interruptions from me and back to the weather ....

     

    BTW I updated it to N Lincs when I saw your location, not that different from the one I posted earlier.

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    Unfortunately, there needs to be a recognition that if we share at *this tentative juncture* the exact nature of what we have as Ops Centre guidance, certain individuals will inevitably extrapolate/wa

    If the UK can't get cold from an upstream pattern with a negatively tilted troughing setting up over the ne USA , indeed the best set up since two winters ago then I will seriously consider throwing m

    The good news just keeps on coming!   Upstream pattern is falling into place to deliver what many people in this thread want to see, NCEP give us the best update since winter 2012/2013,  indeed I'm

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

    With the mean jet flow around our latitude things could become very interesting just after Christmas.

    Too soon for details but it looks likely that the jet will become quite active as arctic air is drawn closer to our north meeting tropical maritime air coming north east around a low in the Atlantic to our south west.

    We can see things taking shape as soon as T96 on the Gfs06z

    http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20141219/06/96/h850t850eu.png

    As this last run shows the action really kicks in just after Christmas as a new low develops around our locale.This could well be a vigorous feature with gales,rain or snow depending on it,s track and how much cold air gets involved.

    This is probably what fergieweather was alluding to and something to watch out for.

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .

    My twopence worth....  (probably 10p worth today, but I don't charge!)  LOL

     

    The GFS first picked up the trend with a blizzard on Boxing day after going colder on Xmas eve.

    It then slowly backed down. (as usual). The GFS seems to be picking it up again today, but 2 - 3 days later for the onset.

     

    ECM picked the baton up but was not nearly as progressive as  the GFS and has run with it  in different guises since then (nearly dropping it altogether on one op run). But after gradually starting quite deep lasting cold  gradually reducing, it is again trending more severe recently.

     

    The net result is that the GFS has picked up the trend early but has failed to stick with it. It was too early to  ever have a chance. As Tamarra, Steve , TEITS and all us oldies have alluded to the atmospheric rubber band was not taut enough for it to go twang at that stage.

     

    Tamarra has again indicated above the background signal is getting stronger. The longer we have to wait for the bang, the bigger will be the twang.!!

     

    I still feel that the problem with the GFS is although it picked up the signals it was 2 days too progressive. 

     

    So what happens next.....

     

    I feel that we could end up with the original GFS blizzard, not coming down from the north, but from the Southwest.

     

    IF has suggested massive cyclogenisis is likely with the proximity of the two massive air masses clashing.

     

    The longer it takes for this to happen, I feel the deeper and more more exciting the weather will become.

     

    If it is in the new year, I would expect a massive battleground over the UK, with the cold air setting in for quite a while after winning out. 

     

    If it between Xmas and the new year all sorts of possibilities are possible from a total miss out on snow for the south, to a 3 day snowmaggedon,  followed by the Atlantic train. The final alternative would be  a blizzard in the north followed by mild for all. .

     

    The current models are trying to get to grips with a fascinating situation. I hope we don't have to wait too long.

     

    MIA

     

    Edit...

    Phil I see you think the same a me!!!!

    Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    first apologies if this clutters up the thread with the 12z in full flow so I am posting my comments and replies in the technical thread if anyone wants to read them. Not technical at all I assure everyone.

    Edited by johnholmes
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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    day 9-my and how likely is it to verify do you think?

     

    pretty reasonable if it has support from the noaa anomaly charts? (usual caveat applies, consistency etc).

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    first apologies if this clutters up the thread with the 12z in full flow so I am posting my comments and replies in the technical thread if anyone wants to read them. Not technical at all I assure everyone.

     

    Thanks. 

     

    Link:   https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76236-in-depth-model-discussion-and-summaries/page-11

     

    D12 mean on the GEFS: post-14819-0-94096700-1418999703_thumb.p  op: post-14819-0-97266700-1418999753_thumb.p

     

    A way to go before we can confirm a cold spell by D10-12 based on the mean.

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    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

    The ensembles split with a range of nearly 15 degrees at 850ph by day 10 so the mean is next to useless.

    Beat me to it. Huge divergence in the GEFS, so the mean is not a reliable guide one would think. The op is nothing short of awesome though and would take that in a heartbeat, the perfect set up for coldies. 

    One feels it's only a matter of time before we see serious Greeny heights programmed in the nearer term, there is a strong hunch there, but just that, only a hunch.

    May I also advise some newbies to this, that if you get frustrated at cold synoptics getting pushed back and back, take a 2/3 day break from model watching and come back. It's quite refreshing. I did it last week, and hey ho, I come back on and see some greeny high's in the output!!! You can all thank me later!

     

    :-)

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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

    I thought Fergie couldn’t make it any clearer  stop going on about bloody snow IMBY because in the next few weeks  the models suggest we will get all types of weather including the kitchen sink

     

    So sorry Stew, but having read it the update in question a third or four time I got the gist of it (was just talk of miopics, theta-w and a couple of other phrases that lost me. My comment is/was seemingly along the same lines anyhow, as far as I know. I simply had to reply to your comment to make the comment from my end clearer. :unknw:  Nonetheless this very posting from an experienced model following Moderator isn't the type of waffle which we want to fill this thread with either, so I'll best end there and wish you all a Merry Christmas, whatever the weather.  :smiliz19:

     

     

     

    Not that I won't be sticking around to view and perhaps provide some analysis on the 12z runs once again, you understand.

    Edited by gottolovethisweather
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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall in particular but most aspects of weather, hate hot and humid.
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset

    Great to see some genuine excitement in this thread based on more than our own interpretations of each model run. Ian F's interventions have certainly upped the ante somewhat.

    This should come as no surprise reall . Retron over on TWO pointed out that last nights  nights ECM control run would have brought snow to nearly all parts of the UK by day ten.

     

    Also one of the BBC forecasts looking at next week and beyond raised the possibility of snow and strong winds to low levels in the far south. So eyebrows must really being raised over some of the possible outcomes at the met Office.

     

    The models are becoming genuinely interesting at last.

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    Dissatisfying for the southern south eastern and south west uk would be nice to see some channel lows all pretty standard run of the mill cold set up with the North enjoying the best of it and the areas I've included rather stuck in a rut and in high rainfall totals reminds me of last winter.

    Although the gfs has thrown up the excitement but only for the places that would normally expect.

    So although exciting for a lot and certainly not to be unhappy with I'm afraid us in the southern areas could well be waiting a longtime.

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Well it's been complete madness on here today, especially after the 00zs when the number of those very confidently writing off a cold spell roughly equalled the ones ramping it up. And then, complete hilarity as the GFS 06z threw in a snowfest causing many to backtrack very quickly! 

     

    The truth is, the period from 27th onwards i.e. T192 is too far away to predict confidently, and this range always is - general trends fine, but for snow in the UK we're requiring specifics - haven't we see major shifts in the snow/rain apportioning even at T48 in the past.

     

    May I use an example of another event which may be slipping under the radar - Christmas Day itself. Look at the last 4 days from the ECM for the big day. T216 = low pressure off Newfounland - T144 = low pressure nearer the Azores. Incredible variability! And can anyone extremely confidently tell me the little low pressure now forecast to be in the North Sea (T144 chart) will not deepen a little further, or move a bit further north/south, or produce a potent front or perhaps not even exist at all? Actually, the more I look at the final chart, the more I think a surprise White Christmas for many is actually not far from the current position:

     

    ECM1-216.GIF

    ECM1-192.GIF

    ECM1-168.GIF

    ECM1-144.GIF

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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

    Just wanted to post this up from the Model banter thread as it may or may not assist people in understanding HOW the weather system operates, as something which happens in one section of the atmosphere thereby affects another region. 

     

    https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81281-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-autumnwinter-2014/?p=3092019

     

    Those building blocks (oh yes that often overused phrase) are happening miles above our earth and as I type. Certainly not in each of our own towns, cities or countryside. Think big when looking at charts from longer-term scales and only locally in the short-term, i.e. within the reliable. If you stick to that rule it often doesn't lead to personal disappointment. At least to my mind, it doesn't.

     

    On to others to now discuss the NWP operationals as they roll out, ever nearer to our long-awaited festive break.  :drinks:  

    Edited by gottolovethisweather
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    Posted
  • Location: Live Thame (Oxfordshire), Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Thame (Oxfordshire), Work Heathrow Airport

    From WSI

    Temperatures falling end of next week but ensemble differences. Preference to cooler ECMWF ensemble.

    post-115-0-95594800-1419003894_thumb.png

    post-115-0-16851800-1419003906_thumb.png

    post-115-0-35179200-1419003919_thumb.png

    Latest ECMWF weekly has lower pressure N Europe with a return to normal/above temperatures N/mainland Europe week 4

    post-115-0-24046700-1419004155_thumb.png

    post-115-0-89315300-1419004164_thumb.png

    Edited by No Balls Like Snow Balls
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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    In terms of what to look out for in tonights outputs as indicators of whether its positive or negative for colder prospects.

     

    It's looking unavoidable given recent trends that the low in the Atlantic will be a factor in how the pattern plays out. This is likely to eject a shortwave around the T150hrs mark, as I posted on page 42 its essential that this shortwave separates from the parent low, this shortwave is likely to run ene in towards the UK.

     

    Positive- shortwave ejects cleanly, the further south this occurs the better.

     

    Negative- the shortwave runs towards the UK but further to the nw, no clean separation.

     

    The positive result will more likely lead to a quicker route to cold, the longwinded route to cold might still occur however this always give room for more hurdles to pop up.

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    Posted
  • Location: Allerton Bywater, Castleford, West Yorkshire. 15m ASL
  • Location: Allerton Bywater, Castleford, West Yorkshire. 15m ASL

    Dissatisfying for the southern south eastern and south west uk would be nice to see some channel lows all pretty standard run of the mill cold set up with the North enjoying the best of it and the areas I've included rather stuck in a rut and in high rainfall totals reminds me of last winter.

    Although the gfs has thrown up the excitement but only for the places that would normally expect.

    So although exciting for a lot and certainly not to be unhappy with I'm afraid us in the southern areas could well be waiting a longtime.

     

    I don't ever post on here as i don't know enough to join in on this thread YET (Still learning), but i have been lurking for quite a while, can i just ask when people state north and south can they advise where they mean as in boundaries which may vary based on the person discussing it, are they talking North as in midlands upwards or North as in Scotland etc.... thanks

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    Lol, no wonder newbies get confused at times.

    Well if the charts shown 48hrs ago were still coming out then I'd been talking about the possibility!.

    As for bbc weather I've not seen nothing to suggest anything remotely wintry for the southern half of the uk and I do believe on the broad scale the met office also don't consider the southern half of the uk in the colder zone although wet and windy is a possible outcome.

    Let's hope lows take a more southeasterly route or even move up from the south west to draw in colder continental air.

    But only commenting on the charts over the last 24 hrs or so.

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    I don't ever post on here as i don't know enough to join in on this thread YET (Still learning), but i have been lurking for quite a while, can i just ask when people state north and south can they advise where they mean as in boundaries which may vary based on the person discussing it, are they talking North as in midlands upwards or North as in Scotland etc.... thanks

    Well if you live on the south coast I'd be inclined to suggest Midlands North as in most uk winter storm possibilities Midlands North normally would expect more of a wintry flavour!

    But really depends on the track of the winter storm or the direction of cold air.

    But the models did have chances further south but recently further north looks more favourite although even here things could change dramatically in future runs.

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