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Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas


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Unfortunately, there needs to be a recognition that if we share at *this tentative juncture* the exact nature of what we have as Ops Centre guidance, certain individuals will inevitably extrapolate/wa

If the UK can't get cold from an upstream pattern with a negatively tilted troughing setting up over the ne USA , indeed the best set up since two winters ago then I will seriously consider throwing m

The good news just keeps on coming!   Upstream pattern is falling into place to deliver what many people in this thread want to see, NCEP give us the best update since winter 2012/2013,  indeed I'm

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury

    Haha lets hope you've not cursed the run by praising it so early :)

    At the point of post , the comment was a fair one, would you not agree , and at present anything after 120 could be considered FI

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    The problem is not amplification, that will happen, it is where. GFS has shortwaves running on the northern edge of the jet cutting off the Atlantic ridge so it cannot build to Greenland: 

     

    post-14819-0-50015800-1418984462_thumb.p

     

    So the amplification will be further west and that kills a cold shot for the UK in that time frame.

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    well ive not read through the last 6 pages since i was on, so apologies if this point has already been made ...

     

    post-2797-0-96481400-1418983780_thumb.gi post-2797-0-14176900-1418983795_thumb.gi

     

    reasonable agreement out to day 10 over the general unsettled, often mild, pattern to continue with the previously expected post crimbo freeze now all but gone. so no white crimbo is on the cards on this mornings op runs, in fact theres hardly anything cold at all.

    but this is where things from my eyes get interesting... i deliberately posted charts from day 10 above, to highlight the conflicting message this appears to be sending

    post-2797-0-48966900-1418983989_thumb.gi

    this noaa 500mb anaomaly chart to me (please correct me if im wrong...john?...)  doesnt suggest a large greenland high ridging into the mid atlantic, and an upper mean trough to our east . it doesnt suggest high pressure over france, nor a southwesterly jet.

    so theres a huge conflict going on... and itll be interesting to see which data source becomes reality, the current ops with their mixed, unsettled, average - mild, or the anaomaly which suggests a much colder,  blocked and very cold wintry spell the sorth the gfs has been championing from the post crimbo period.

    this might surprise some of you, but im going to back the noaa 500mb anomaly solution and expect their colder outcome to 'win' out, because (as jh says ) when in agreement and consistent they are right c70% of the time. tbh i expected them this morning (didnt view last night) the 8-14 dayer to have backed down from the blocked/cold option, but it appears to have amplified.

    so no, i havnt turned into a cold ramper, i just think that (assuming my interpretation of the anoms are correct) a cold solution is more likely then the milder one later next week going off current data.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    To be honest we are trying to predict shortwaves here at 144, which is pointless.

    Is it though? Every run has the shortwaves over Iceland and southern Greenland. They appear time and time again and that's a huge stumbling block for us. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

    I'd say the GFS is an improvement on its earlier run (and possibly even than yesterday's), the phasing of the southern low with the Icelandic one is a bit further east(thanks to a slightly better looking Atlantic ridge in the short term) with more amplification upstream, which gives us a better chance of getting the GH to be a bit more east based. It'll still probably go wrong in low res though  :laugh:

    gfsnh-0-168.png?6

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    Haha you couldn't make it up. gfs boarding the cold train at day 8.

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

    Well well is gfs beginning to smell the coffee!! Energy going over the uk instead of over the uk!!Stronger heights across greenland at 180 hours!! Steve murr did say give the gfs 24 hours to play catch up so lets see!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    Haha you couldn't make it up. gfs boarding the cold train at day 8.

     

    441 very confused Model thread users and counting.. Not 1 of them is going to be any clearer today or even tomorrow in my opinion.  :wallbash:

     

    EPIC gfsnh-0-228.png?6

    Edited by karlos1983
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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    It's a stunner at day 9. Big Greenland ridge and bitter arctic air sweeping down. What a turn around. Surreal situation this is turning out to be.

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  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny summers. cold snowy winters
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl

    Flip Flop Flip Flop - Gibby is so right about the models being all over the place. Not taking it at face value as it will no doubt be different come the 12z

    Edited by festivalking
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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    As expected GFS follows the ECM.

    Differences at the end of the High res run T192, all stem from the very small changes upto T120. Which GFS has been rather alone in coming up with, that's its moved significantly at T120 is a big plus for today.

    post-6326-0-59136300-1418985252_thumb.pn

    post-6326-0-94231600-1418985258_thumb.pn

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    Posted
  • Location: Otley(Leeds)
  • Location: Otley(Leeds)

    This really is going to be one heck of a roller coaster ride in emotions and trying to predict the outlook.

     

    Went to bed last night thinking things are looking good, after steve murrs excellent post explaining why.

     

    Woke up this morning to a dire gfs thinking here we go again... Then the ECM produces a belter! lol

     

     

     

    Anyone who claims to know for certain what will happen is a liar, delusional or just Piers Corbyn.........

     

    I'm just going to sit back and enjoy the ride :)

     

    gfsnh-0-228.png?6

     

    By the way Perfect gfs 6z ;)

    Edited by Harsh Climate
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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors

    This run is a good match to the NOAA height anomolay charts thats Mushy Rob posted this morning, and we finally will have a cold/colder solution as an operational so it will be interesting to see where it sits within the ensembles. Maybe the ECM will finally not be a mild outlier on tonights 12zs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ellon 70m
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Ellon 70m

    I seem to remember well the cold periods of 2013 being much like this ECM picking up a pattern then the GFS would join in then UKMO would join the party and the GFS would go off on one for maybe 6-8 runs then it would slowly start to come back towards the others....I think it happened every single time...now im not saying that this is the case for the up coming period but I think it is certainly something to bare in mind....

    posted this just an hour ago.....classic backtrack by the GFS so it would seem...you just couldn't make it up...

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  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    441 very confused Model thread users and counting.. Not 1 of them is going to be any clearer today or even tomorrow in my opinion.  :wallbash:

     

    EPIC gfsnh-0-228.png?6

    If you've been around long enough (which most of us have) then this is standard model chopping & changing.

     

    I suspect there will be plenty more to come, I'm reserving judgement on the final outcome of what Christmas & post Christmas weather will be until I see what the models are showing on Sunday/Monday.

     

    Until then, sit tight & enjoy the ride.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    GFS(P) is UGLY!

    gfsnh-0-156.png?6

    Edited by karlos1983
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    Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

    MORNING GANG ,gfs normal [old ] is not updating on my computer its still showing 00hrs ,or am i missing something ,dont want to miss a good run ,cheers .

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